Quote:
Originally Posted by RendeR
There is a TON of misleading commentary out there. The thing I've noted from a couple different sources (Merkel's speech to Germany being the most recent) is that we're looking at something in the range of 70% total infection rate BEFORE this ends. And I'm using this as a worst case scenario. take that as pessimistic or optimistic, your choice.
Getting ahead of that isn't just an option while we wait for a plan of action, its a requirement if the death rate isn't going to leap logarithmicly at that point.
Buying time is the first best action we can take, time to build up supplies, time to prepare triage and treatment centers on a large scale and time, perhaps, for a vaccine to be discovered.
Even if we're looking at a minimal 1% casualty rate, this country alone is looking at a possible number just under 3 MILLION dead.
We have to slow this down if we're even going to have a chance. The infrastructure stress alone could destroy normal society as we've grown up knowing it. IF I have a heart attack during the peak I could be looking at a death notice instead of a week in the hospital and a quick surgery beacause of the heavy load already on the services.
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If we're going to hit 70% of the population infected (and once you get over ~10% I don't understand why that number would be less than 95%) regardless, then we're just adding a voluntary economic recession on top of a health crisis for the elderly we can't avoid. Now I don't think we'll hit those numbers, but if the argument is "we're all going to get it, just delay the inevitable" I think you're going to start having massive social upheavals in 2-3 weeks when the disease is still floating around & you're extending the period you're asking the large chunk of society that isn't in mortal danger to suspend & delay their lives. And unfortunately unlike the best case scenario (South Korea) I don't think a 2-3 week quarantine will work because we don't have the resources to test people (or desire in some cases).
Shurg, tl;dr I think the government & public was underestimating the threat before, but I think the pendulum has swung too far. And I get why people are throwing around #'s like 3 million deaths, but I would guess we end up 2 orders of magnitude lower with deaths in the 30,000 range, which is still very bad but not cataclysmic.