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Originally Posted by lungs
Don’t know if it will amount to much in regards to the overall food supply, but I’m seeing a few troubling trends in various places.
-A beef packing plant has been shut down due to positive tests on workers. Price of live cattle has cratered. I’ve seen some farmers having contracts for slaughter cancelled because processing capacity is limited.
- I’ve seen a few vegetable farmers nervous about H2-A workers not being able to come this year. Our undocumented population could theoretically pick up the slack.
- Milk is starting to get dumped. The price of milk has cratered once again. Cheese and butter are piling up because restaurants are shut down. Schools made up a decent chunk of demand. Temporary spike in fluid demand at grocery stores isn’t making up. That sound you are hearing is the bullet I dodged by selling my cows and farm while I still had my shirt.
-The oil price war makes ethanol a bad buy right now. Ethanol plants are trying to use act of god provisions in contracts to get out of them and shut down. They will lose less money by sitting idle.
Even with Trump’s farmer welfare of the past few years, agriculture is pretty well fucked at this point and I’m glad I jumped off that bus. The general economy had been stellar up until all this craziness. Ag was the exception so it’ll be interesting to see how this will shake out for the average person and food in general. The immediate concern would be in processing as that could end up being a bottleneck with plants getting shut down due to the virus.
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My wife is senior VP of sales for Duracell, in charge of all grocery and drug stores. Before that she worked for P and G. Supply chain, etc...is right up he alley. She said she has zero worries about a food shortage. Not that I doubt your info, because I certainly don't, but her confidence and expertise give me faith it won't happen.