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QuikSand · 04-24-2020, 10:40 AM

So, when you're a non-expert but steeped in analysis by pundits/pseudo-experts, there's a good deal of DKE at work. Hard to counteract it.

I'm rooting for a team, Miami, and am watching their picks really closely. They did what I really wanted at QB (stand pat, take Tua at 1.5) and still had a giant cache of picks to work with. I wanted them to steer clear of RB with their picks at 18, 26, and 39... so far, so good.

Now, we kinda knew they loved T Austin Jackson, I just wanted them to wait until pick 26 for him. They didn't. So, that felt like a loss of value to me, relative to the background apparent consensus (that we all recognize as not perfectly predictive). Then, they deal down again, but still have obvious target S McKinnie available at 30... but go elsewhere (CB).

So, what should a proper Miami fan think? Honestly, I feel it's maybe 80% likely, or more, that they could have gotten these guys later... T Jackson at 26, and CB Iggy at 39. Meaning they could have taken their BPA at pick 18, rather than at 39, like they are now lines up to do. That feels like a leak of value.

So... that is the price they paid to be absolutely certain they got "their guys." Time will have to tell whether they selected the right players. What we can say right after the draft is whether they seemed to maximize value. It think it's clear they did not.

So... meh grade for execution.

I will remain hopeful that they know what they are doing, and they are deliberately picking "project" players (both guys are really raw) with an eye toward this team coming together after a couple more years. I'd be okay with that.

And one more note... if the plan is don't really focus on 2020, but on 2022, I'm down. But in that case DO NOT SPEND SERIOUS CAPITAL AT RUNNING BACK. That's a fine last-piece, not a sensible early-piece while you still can't block or stop anyone.

04-24-2020, 10:40 AM	#388
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	So, when you're a non-expert but steeped in analysis by pundits/pseudo-experts, there's a good deal of DKE at work. Hard to counteract it. I'm rooting for a team, Miami, and am watching their picks really closely. They did what I really wanted at QB (stand pat, take Tua at 1.5) and still had a giant cache of picks to work with. I wanted them to steer clear of RB with their picks at 18, 26, and 39... so far, so good. Now, we kinda knew they loved T Austin Jackson, I just wanted them to wait until pick 26 for him. They didn't. So, that felt like a loss of value to me, relative to the background apparent consensus (that we all recognize as not perfectly predictive). Then, they deal down again, but still have obvious target S McKinnie available at 30... but go elsewhere (CB). So, what should a proper Miami fan think? Honestly, I feel it's maybe 80% likely, or more, that they could have gotten these guys later... T Jackson at 26, and CB Iggy at 39. Meaning they could have taken their BPA at pick 18, rather than at 39, like they are now lines up to do. That feels like a leak of value. So... that is the price they paid to be absolutely certain they got "their guys." Time will have to tell whether they selected the right players. What we can say right after the draft is whether they seemed to maximize value. It think it's clear they did not. So... meh grade for execution. I will remain hopeful that they know what they are doing, and they are deliberately picking "project" players (both guys are really raw) with an eye toward this team coming together after a couple more years. I'd be okay with that. And one more note... if the plan is don't really focus on 2020, but on 2022, I'm down. But in that case DO NOT SPEND SERIOUS CAPITAL AT RUNNING BACK. That's a fine last-piece, not a sensible early-piece while you still can't block or stop anyone.