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Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA
Umm ... how much could Dak have cost his team when they went 13-3 in his first season?
For that matter, DeShaun was 3-3 before season ending injury - and with a QBR that would have been 3rd best in the league that season if he maintained it - on a team that went 1-9 in his absence.
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I was looking at their first playoff games. Watson had 235 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (21-7 L), Goff had 259 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT (26-13 L), Lamar went 194 yards (55 rushing), 2 TD, 2 TO (23-17 L) and Dak played well in a loss (302, 3-1). So, it's probably not fair to include him. But, the point was most of these QBs would have probably done better if they had 1-2 years to groom instead of being forced into early playoff games. And these are the best examples. Remember, Mahomes played one game in his first season and was able to learn from Andy Reid before he started. Plus, he's the best QB in the league (not exactly a normal example). There are dozens of examples of a team panicking and drafting the best QB for that year (when they pick) and rushing him to start after their current QB retired/left with awful results.
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Right now, essentially half (15 of 32) the teams in the NFL have a QB taking up at least 10% of their cap.
In 2000, only 4 QBs accounted for 10% of cap.
By 2013, that had climbed to 10 QBs.
If you're looking for where the thinking changed, the answer is probably found in there somewhere.
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That sounds about right. But if you have a $200 million cap and your starter makes 12.5% (25 mil) and is over 35, isn't it smart to draft a good backup (esp in the first where you get 5 years of control)? The salary for a 1st rounder between 20 and 30 (where you probably pick) is about 1.5% of the cap.
I think the issue is teams are usually trying to make one more run with the old QB and don't want to "waste a pick" on a young QB to groom. The problem is the bust rate on first picks is pretty close to 50-50, so there's a coin flip chance you waste the pick anyway. And the value of having a "good starter" level QB by drafting and grooming seems much higher than a 50-50 chance at a starting DT, WR or CB.