JBL | The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season (Day 65): Small School + Seismic Shift Saturday!
Today, we are going to look at what the small schools in the country are doing. This column is (mostly) dedicated to them.
However, we do have to comment on something.
In today's poll, just one team stayed where they were in yesterday's ranking.
One.
And that's #1 Indiana.
Every team from #2 on down shifted. Now, only a couple of schools were jettisoned. We took out Michigan State; they have the talent to compete for a national title, but they are the most frustratingly inconsistent team in the country. At 7-8, and 1-3 in the Big Ten (with their only win against an Ohio State team that we just called the most overrated team in the country), we couldn't justify them being in any longer. Also out is Arkansas, though that is more about UNLV's win over San Diego State than it says about the Razorbacks.
The big reasons for all the movement are...
- UNC beat Duke
- Stanford handed USC their second straight loss
- Arizona lost to UCLA, who finally beat a Q1 team
- Colorado lost to Washington State
- San Diego State lost to UNLV
- Illinois blew a win against Indiana
- Villanova continued to roll
- Ohio State lost to Michigan State, and their resume was building towards a correction
- Memphis continued to get themselves back on track
- Gonzaga earned their way back into the poll
All of those things led to more shifting in this poll than any other this season. We can thank conference play for this, specifically Big Ten and Pac-12 play.
Now...onto Small School Saturday.
- The Ivy looks like it will be an absolute dogfight. (Perhaps this is due to its general ineptitude so far this season; no team has a positive point differential entering games today.) At the top of the ladder sit Harvard (7-6, 2-0) and Penn (7-6, 2-0).
The Crimson either lead or sit near the top of the conference in almost every offensive category. In a conference nearly devoid of defense (and, for most teams, offense), this is a pretty solid strategy. The Crimson, led by George Foye's surprising 26, defeated Cornell (5-6, 1-1) 85-75. Christian Collins (second in the Ivy in scoring, at 16.5 PPG) had 22, but the night belonged to Foye, who was 6-13 from the field, 4-7 from three, and 10-10 from the line, as Harvard held off every charge from the Big Red.
Cornell got it down to two, at 74-72, but could get no further.
Harvard, who went undefeated in league play last year, is looking to win back-to-back conference championships.
It was thought that Cornell would be the team to best stand in their way. The Big Red are 20th in the nation in DRtg (95.0), and the only team in the Ivy with a DRtg in double-digits. However, their ORtg is 94.6, good for 323rd in the nation. When you play at a good pace (56h in the nation, tops in the Ivy), making you 14th in FGA per game but 325th in FG%, you're going to struggle.in games like this. And that's what Cornell experienced in this game. They did get three players in double figures, led by Charlendez Blake's 13, but overally, they shot 42% from the field, and just 64% (16-25) at the line.
Cornell is definitely the outlier in the conference, and should be there at the end. But their lack of consistent offense outweighs their excellent defense at this stage.
So, what about Penn, then? The Quakers are second in the conference in PPG, and third in ORtg (216th overall). But they are sixth in DRtg and 8th in oPPG. What they do well is shoot the three (2nd in the conference in both threes made per game and 3pt%). They're generally top half of the league in most things, and first in the conference in offensive boards per game, as well as eFG%.
But, that defense.
Realistically, Harvard and Penn are the same team. Good offensively, good at hitting threes, terrible defensively. Neither particularly likes to force the issue.
The key here, at least for a head-to-head (Day 71 at Harvard is the first matchup) may come from the lineups.
Harvard (Ronnie Word-Reggie Howard-Christian Collins-Dazon Lewis-George Foye): +6.0 in 79:13
Penn (Justin Prescott-Colby Kamara-Bennie Glass-Matt Cohchiani-Jordy Clayton ): -2.2 Net in 204:19
Of course, Harvard's lineup has less time, but the key here seems to be the move to Foye over Josh Garner at the point. Foye's main two lineups are positive Nets, while Garner's sit at -13.5 and -1.4.
Penn, meanwhile, has stayed with their starting lineup for the season, and it has played to a net zero, in terms of point differential. But it's still a negative rating overall. The second lineup rates a +4.5 in 42:14. The conclusion on Penn doesn't really conclude anything at all, because subsequent lineups all have various parts of that lineup. It does appear that Travaun Moses has been a general positive over Colby Kamara at the 4, but that's really about all that can be gleamed. (And maybe Eric Sterley should be playing more minutes in place of Matt Corchiani at the 2.)
In the end, what we have here is that meme of the two Spidermans pointing at one another.
- For no other reason than randomness, let's take a look at New Mexico:
The Lobos have an absurd amount of talent, though it is centered around the post. DeMarcus Higgins appears to be a legit JBL candidate as an athletic combo-wing who could guard both wings and post passably in the pros. Spencer Edwards, another senior, has a lot of talent and might be a fringe pro prospect. Right now, he's a bit player on the team, and could stand to get some more run.
All of this interior strength has led New Mexico to a really solid defense, one that ranks 32nd in the nation (2nd in the Mountain West); their DRtg sits 38th in the nation (just fifth in the conference). They play a rather slow pace, but their ORtg remains efficient.
In short, this team is a defense-first team akin to Missouri and Virginia. They just aren't as quite as talented as those teams.
Avery Barnes leads the team in scoring, at 12.4 ppg. But he's inefficent. Since New Mexico is tenth in the conference in FG attempts per game, and Barnes takes 20% of the team's shots, this can lead to some fruistrating nights.
(Personally, we would like to see PG Makinde Neziek take a bigger role on offense; he's shooting 48.9% from the field, and 46.2% from three. Also, Troy Bell is shooting 50% from three, on 4.3 attempts. For a center, that is highly efficient.)
The team's core, tot his point, seems to be Neziek, Bell, and SF Christian Allende. Neziek is a +20 in personal NetRtg, while Bell is +30.0. Allende is just a 4.6, but he's got a Box +/- of 5.0, best on the team by far. His 1.2 win shares is also second on the team. If the team can figure out a way to maybe pair Bell and Edwards (who has 1.1 WS and a 4.6 BPM), this team may take off.
One idea that could be interesting: Going with a lineup of:
PG: Neziek (6'4)
SG: Allende (6'10)
SF: Higgins (6/10)
PF: Bell (7')
C: Edwards (6'10)
Not only would that be a lineup with ridiculous length and defense, you're maximizing your offensive efficiency. Barnes might be better as a microwave off the bench. We're unsure. But we do know that, at this stage, Barnes' play is a losing proposition for the Lobos as they are. They have gotten better production from the spot when they play Steve Urquahart at the 2. If they're willing to try him, why not Allende, who is more athletic than Barnes and even a better perimeter defender?
Anyway, that's our unrequested two cents.
The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season
Day 65
1. Indiana (13-1, 1)
2. North Carolina (13-2, 3)
3. Kentucky (13-0, 5)
4. Connecticut (13-2, 4)
5. Duke (11-3, 2)
6. Kanass (11-3, 8)
7. NC State (12-1, 9)
8. Southern Cal (11-3, 6)
9. Virginia (12-1, 9)
10. Arizona (12-3, 7)
11. Missouri (10-2, 15)
12. Colorado (12-2, 10)
13. Washington (10-3, 12)
14. Florida (9-3, 17)
15. Illinois (11-3, 14)
16. San Diego State (13-1, 13)
17. Pittsburgh (11-3, 18)
18. Purdue (9-4, 19)
19. Utah (9-3, 20)
20. Villanova (10-3, 21)
21. Stanford (11-3, 23)
22. Ohio State (12-3, 16)
23. Maryland (10-3, NR)
24. Memphis (10-4, 25)
25. Gonzaga (11-2, NR)
Next: Michigan, Georgetown, Iowa State, Syracuse, UNLV
Dropped Out: Michigan State (22), Michigan (24)