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Comey · 05-30-2020, 03:39 PM

JBL | The Quadaily 25, 2029 Season (Day 29): The State of the Undefeated, Part 2: The Other Eight...

So, out of the undefeateds we tracked in our last issue, Duke and Hawaii both fell. Both were predictable.

So, who is left that we haven't covered? Let's get to that. We did have sixteen undefeateds in the last issue of the Quad (that got curtailed). Now, we're down to eleven.

Please note: We are dropping the "Chances to Go Undefeated" portion. We don't expect any team to go undefeated. Cincinnati has the best chance, and they can easily get tripped up at Villanova, Houston, or at Memphis. We feel like those are the three realistic losses the Bearcats could have going into tournament play.

Charlotte (6-0): We wrote about the 49ers in our Buy/Sell piece, so we won't deliberate too much on them in this space. They did beat Fairfield on the road, though the Stags are looking anything but the two-time MAAC champs at this point. The 49ers are talented and consistent, which is the base recipe for success.

Best Chance at Their First Loss: It could come at home to Dayton on Day 30, though we think it's more realistic that they fall at Clemson on Day 42. If they somehow get through Clemson, then there is a...say, 5% chance...that they run the table. CUSA isn't terribly strong, outside of maybe Western Kentucky.

Rice (6-0): We picked Rice to finish sixth in the conference, so this may be a surprise. Their best win is on the road at James Madison, who they beat 67-63. They are an interesting dichotomy in stats, ranking fifth in the nation in both oPPG and DRtg, 17th in ORtg, and 2nd in the nation in NetRtg (2.2). They do slow it down a good bit (232nd in pace), and rank 55th in total offense. They are also third in FG%. They rebound well (38th in offensive and total rebounds), and have a decent bench (27th in bench scoring). All that said, who knows if this is because they have yet to play a reasonable offense. Their two lead lineups have NetRtg's of 33.2 and 34.4, respectively, so you have to give them credit so far. They don't have a particularly efficient head of their scoring hierachy--Jacob Avery (14.3 ppg on 42.6%, Mike Rousseau III's 13.8 ppg on 36.9%), so this is a team that is ripe for defeat when they are not clicking.

Best Chance of Their First Loss: at Wyoming on Day 34, or at home against Houston on Day 42. Houston is a better team, and Wyoming has enough quality to see the Owls off with a loss.

Princeton (6-0): Another team we picked to finish mid-table, Princeton needed overtime to defeat Rider, who is 0-7 on the season, and has yet to be competitive in any game...except the game against Princeton. The Tigers are fourth in the nation in points per game and 16th in ORtg. They are 288th in oPPG and 170th in DRtg. They are a team that likes to push the envelope (48th in pace), and they are a team that likes to jack em up from deep. They do it quite well, too: 11th in 3s made per game, 7th in 3pt%. They also get the job done with their bench, ranking 15th in the nation in bench scoring. Their leading scorer, Devorious Carliyle, is a solid threat, averaging 14.0 ppg on 46.3% shooting, 45.5% from deep (5.5/g). Jaylen Clayton does the job off the bench, making 45.2% of his threes (on 5.2/g). This has been an impressive run, but...well...

Best Chance of Their First Loss: Day 30, at home to Bradley. The Braves are definitely of a higher quality than that of the Tigers, and we expect them to lose that game. We do, however, have circled the game at UC-Davis on Day 38, as appointment viewing. Two teams who love offense as much as they do (and who merely point to defense as a suggestion that can easily be brushed aside)? Yes, please. Oh, should Princeton somehow get past Bradley, they'll lose at Rutgers on Day 36.

UCLA (6-0): And now, we come to the greatest turnaround west of Providence (which could, you know, encompass virtually the entire country, since Providence resides a mere half-hour drive from the Atlantic). We expected the Bruins to turn around, but only so far (seventh in our Pac-12 predictions). We didn't expect them to become Missouri. They have beaten three teams we are very high on: Georgia Tech, Georgetown, and Arkansas. The interesting thing about this team is that they profile as this year's Missouri time even greater, given that they don't seem to do any one thing particularly well, outside of push the envelope (59th in pace) and generate turnovers (16th in steals) and points in transition and off turnovers (14th and 30th, respectively). Jarius Richmond tore off to an amazing start; he has since considerably cooled (16.8 ppg on 43.4% shooting, 35.6% from deep). But he is still one of the biggest difference-makers in the nation, a fantastic blend of scoring and passing that few possess. Marvin Bessick has emerged as a fantastic all-around player as well, posting 16.5/5.5/2.8 and 2.17 steals per game). This may be the most dangerous duo in the country; we feel confident saying they are that right now.

Best Chance of First Loss: They have two tough games coming up against Michigan (36) and Illinois (38), but both are at home. There is also a game at a surprising Notre Dame team on Day 47, in South Bend. So navigating their way into conference play undefeated will be tough. But it is doable.

Cal (7-0). Cal does own a win against Wake Forest on a neutral court, which is impressive. But after that and a win over Long Beach State (on the road), this loks like a team that has padded wins. They are, however, another team built with a solid defensive identity: they are sixth in oPPG, and 2nd in DRtg (86.9). They are third in the nation in overall NetRtg. Last year, they ranked 303rd, 308th, and 276th in those stats, respectfully. They shoot the ball well (23rd in FG%, 10th in 3pt%). Cal has three scorers in double figures, with Jaron Jones leading the way at 11.1 ppg. This is really a win-by-committee approach, much like Colorado or Virginia of last year.

Best Chance of Their FIrst Loss: It probably won't come before conference play. They do travel to Cal State-Bakersfield on Day 36, but we expect them to win that game. UC-Davis on Day 45 will test their defensive prowess, but UC-Davis not testing their own defensive prowess at any point this season will probably allow Cal to get that win.:

Arizona (7-0): After a more ambitious schedule a year ago, Arizona has been more calculated in their scheduling (which is one way of saying it). That means they own wins over LSU, Dayton and New Mexico on neutral courts, but have seven of their eight OOC games at home against such powerhouses as St. Francis (PA), Kent State, and Fairfield. Their mid-major tour does have Texas A&M and Clemson on it, but again, both are at home. Their SOS is currently 199th. So there really isn't a true gauge of how good they are. Their defense, though, is seemingly not up for debate right now: they are third in oPPG, first in the nation in DRtg, and 4th in NetRtg. They are also 24th in eFG%, and 44th in rebounds. They are also 14th in assists. Those around Arizona believe junior SF Malik Grayson (14.1/5.0/2.6) to be "special", which may be overstating it some. At a collegiate level, he is a difference-maker this season, shooting 57.8% from the field, 47.6% from deep. Nick Jenkins (11.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 59.6% FG) is also playing very well.

Best Chance of Their First Loss: Not before conference season. Just don't see it happening. If they get Utah, USC, Colorado or Washington on the road early in conference season, we will be interested to see how their defense is tested.

Ole Miss (7-0): Four games on neutral courts, three home games. Toughest opponent is Loyola Chicago, or Minnesota. Like the two teams before them, the Rebels are 9th in oPPG, 7th in DRtg, and 7th in Net. But they're 291st in SOS. SF Toney Whiteside (15.9/4.6/3.0, 1.57 SPG) has been a stud, and PF Eric Yakwe (11.9/6.1/1.9, 1.29 BPG) and C Garland Hill (9.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg) have formed a considerable post.

Best Chance at First Loss: Not in non-conference play. Cal State Fullerton (Day 35) may give them a game, but their offensive woes do not bode well against the Rebel defense.

South Carolina (6-0): We discussed South Carolina in our Buy/Sell piece. What we like about the Gamecocks is that they score a lot and have a high DRtg. They like to run, but they can get stops when needed. Teams that like to run often do so because they can't get stop sroutinely. South Carolina can. What we don't like about South Carolina is that their second and third-most used lineups all have negative ratings. Once PG Evan Boswell and C Jaylen Reese take a seat, the team's production goes down severely.

Best Chance at Their First Loss: Day 35 at VCU will be tricky. It is South Carolina's first true road game, and VCU (5-1) has wins over Bradley and Wake Forest. If they get past the Rams, they should get through OOC play undefeated.

Quadaily 25, 2029 Season
Day 29

1. Southern Cal (6-1, 1)
2. Cincinnati (5-0, 2)
3. Colorado (6-1, 3)
4. Ohio State (7-1, 4)
5. Georgetown (5-1, 5)
6. Maryland (5-2, 6)
7. North Carolina (4-2, 7)
8. Syracuse (6-1, 9)
9. Kansas (4-2, 10)
10. UNLV (6-1, 11)
11. Arizona (7-0, 12)
12. Villanova (7-1, 13)
13. Utah (4-2, 8)
14. Washington (6-2, 15)
15. Duke (6-1, 14)
16. Virginia (5-1, 17)
17. Texas (6-1, 18)
18. Wisconsin (6-1, 19)
19. UCLA (6-0, 20)
20. Michigan State (4-3, 16)
21. Marquette (6-1, 21)
22. Iowa State (7-1, 22)
23. Indiana (6-1, 23)
24. Kansas State (3-2, 24)
25. LSU (4-3, 25)
NEXT: Alabama, Auburn, Michigan, Pittsburgh, Stanford
Dropped Out: None

05-30-2020, 03:39 PM	#47
Comey College Starter Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: CT via PA via CA via PA	The Quadaily 25, 2029 Season (Day 29): The State of the Undefeated, Part 2: The Other JBL \| The Quadaily 25, 2029 Season (Day 29): The State of the Undefeated, Part 2: The Other Eight... So, out of the undefeateds we tracked in our last issue, Duke and Hawaii both fell. Both were predictable. So, who is left that we haven't covered? Let's get to that. We did have sixteen undefeateds in the last issue of the Quad (that got curtailed). Now, we're down to eleven. Please note: We are dropping the "Chances to Go Undefeated" portion. We don't expect any team to go undefeated. Cincinnati has the best chance, and they can easily get tripped up at Villanova, Houston, or at Memphis. We feel like those are the three realistic losses the Bearcats could have going into tournament play. Charlotte (6-0): We wrote about the 49ers in our Buy/Sell piece, so we won't deliberate too much on them in this space. They did beat Fairfield on the road, though the Stags are looking anything but the two-time MAAC champs at this point. The 49ers are talented and consistent, which is the base recipe for success. Best Chance at Their First Loss: It could come at home to Dayton on Day 30, though we think it's more realistic that they fall at Clemson on Day 42. If they somehow get through Clemson, then there is a...say, 5% chance...that they run the table. CUSA isn't terribly strong, outside of maybe Western Kentucky. Rice (6-0): We picked Rice to finish sixth in the conference, so this may be a surprise. Their best win is on the road at James Madison, who they beat 67-63. They are an interesting dichotomy in stats, ranking fifth in the nation in both oPPG and DRtg, 17th in ORtg, and 2nd in the nation in NetRtg (2.2). They do slow it down a good bit (232nd in pace), and rank 55th in total offense. They are also third in FG%. They rebound well (38th in offensive and total rebounds), and have a decent bench (27th in bench scoring). All that said, who knows if this is because they have yet to play a reasonable offense. Their two lead lineups have NetRtg's of 33.2 and 34.4, respectively, so you have to give them credit so far. They don't have a particularly efficient head of their scoring hierachy--Jacob Avery (14.3 ppg on 42.6%, Mike Rousseau III's 13.8 ppg on 36.9%), so this is a team that is ripe for defeat when they are not clicking. Best Chance of Their First Loss: at Wyoming on Day 34, or at home against Houston on Day 42. Houston is a better team, and Wyoming has enough quality to see the Owls off with a loss. Princeton (6-0): Another team we picked to finish mid-table, Princeton needed overtime to defeat Rider, who is 0-7 on the season, and has yet to be competitive in any game...except the game against Princeton. The Tigers are fourth in the nation in points per game and 16th in ORtg. They are 288th in oPPG and 170th in DRtg. They are a team that likes to push the envelope (48th in pace), and they are a team that likes to jack em up from deep. They do it quite well, too: 11th in 3s made per game, 7th in 3pt%. They also get the job done with their bench, ranking 15th in the nation in bench scoring. Their leading scorer, Devorious Carliyle, is a solid threat, averaging 14.0 ppg on 46.3% shooting, 45.5% from deep (5.5/g). Jaylen Clayton does the job off the bench, making 45.2% of his threes (on 5.2/g). This has been an impressive run, but...well... Best Chance of Their First Loss: Day 30, at home to Bradley. The Braves are definitely of a higher quality than that of the Tigers, and we expect them to lose that game. We do, however, have circled the game at UC-Davis on Day 38, as appointment viewing. Two teams who love offense as much as they do (and who merely point to defense as a suggestion that can easily be brushed aside)? Yes, please. Oh, should Princeton somehow get past Bradley, they'll lose at Rutgers on Day 36. UCLA (6-0): And now, we come to the greatest turnaround west of Providence (which could, you know, encompass virtually the entire country, since Providence resides a mere half-hour drive from the Atlantic). We expected the Bruins to turn around, but only so far (seventh in our Pac-12 predictions). We didn't expect them to become Missouri. They have beaten three teams we are very high on: Georgia Tech, Georgetown, and Arkansas. The interesting thing about this team is that they profile as this year's Missouri time even greater, given that they don't seem to do any one thing particularly well, outside of push the envelope (59th in pace) and generate turnovers (16th in steals) and points in transition and off turnovers (14th and 30th, respectively). Jarius Richmond tore off to an amazing start; he has since considerably cooled (16.8 ppg on 43.4% shooting, 35.6% from deep). But he is still one of the biggest difference-makers in the nation, a fantastic blend of scoring and passing that few possess. Marvin Bessick has emerged as a fantastic all-around player as well, posting 16.5/5.5/2.8 and 2.17 steals per game). This may be the most dangerous duo in the country; we feel confident saying they are that right now. Best Chance of First Loss: They have two tough games coming up against Michigan (36) and Illinois (38), but both are at home. There is also a game at a surprising Notre Dame team on Day 47, in South Bend. So navigating their way into conference play undefeated will be tough. But it is doable. Cal (7-0). Cal does own a win against Wake Forest on a neutral court, which is impressive. But after that and a win over Long Beach State (on the road), this loks like a team that has padded wins. They are, however, another team built with a solid defensive identity: they are sixth in oPPG, and 2nd in DRtg (86.9). They are third in the nation in overall NetRtg. Last year, they ranked 303rd, 308th, and 276th in those stats, respectfully. They shoot the ball well (23rd in FG%, 10th in 3pt%). Cal has three scorers in double figures, with Jaron Jones leading the way at 11.1 ppg. This is really a win-by-committee approach, much like Colorado or Virginia of last year. Best Chance of Their FIrst Loss: It probably won't come before conference play. They do travel to Cal State-Bakersfield on Day 36, but we expect them to win that game. UC-Davis on Day 45 will test their defensive prowess, but UC-Davis not testing their own defensive prowess at any point this season will probably allow Cal to get that win.: Arizona (7-0): After a more ambitious schedule a year ago, Arizona has been more calculated in their scheduling (which is one way of saying it). That means they own wins over LSU, Dayton and New Mexico on neutral courts, but have seven of their eight OOC games at home against such powerhouses as St. Francis (PA), Kent State, and Fairfield. Their mid-major tour does have Texas A&M and Clemson on it, but again, both are at home. Their SOS is currently 199th. So there really isn't a true gauge of how good they are. Their defense, though, is seemingly not up for debate right now: they are third in oPPG, first in the nation in DRtg, and 4th in NetRtg. They are also 24th in eFG%, and 44th in rebounds. They are also 14th in assists. Those around Arizona believe junior SF Malik Grayson (14.1/5.0/2.6) to be "special", which may be overstating it some. At a collegiate level, he is a difference-maker this season, shooting 57.8% from the field, 47.6% from deep. Nick Jenkins (11.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 59.6% FG) is also playing very well. Best Chance of Their First Loss: Not before conference season. Just don't see it happening. If they get Utah, USC, Colorado or Washington on the road early in conference season, we will be interested to see how their defense is tested. Ole Miss (7-0): Four games on neutral courts, three home games. Toughest opponent is Loyola Chicago, or Minnesota. Like the two teams before them, the Rebels are 9th in oPPG, 7th in DRtg, and 7th in Net. But they're 291st in SOS. SF Toney Whiteside (15.9/4.6/3.0, 1.57 SPG) has been a stud, and PF Eric Yakwe (11.9/6.1/1.9, 1.29 BPG) and C Garland Hill (9.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg) have formed a considerable post. Best Chance at First Loss: Not in non-conference play. Cal State Fullerton (Day 35) may give them a game, but their offensive woes do not bode well against the Rebel defense. South Carolina (6-0): We discussed South Carolina in our Buy/Sell piece. What we like about the Gamecocks is that they score a lot and have a high DRtg. They like to run, but they can get stops when needed. Teams that like to run often do so because they can't get stop sroutinely. South Carolina can. What we don't like about South Carolina is that their second and third-most used lineups all have negative ratings. Once PG Evan Boswell and C Jaylen Reese take a seat, the team's production goes down severely. Best Chance at Their First Loss: Day 35 at VCU will be tricky. It is South Carolina's first true road game, and VCU (5-1) has wins over Bradley and Wake Forest. If they get past the Rams, they should get through OOC play undefeated. Quadaily 25, 2029 Season Day 29 1. Southern Cal (6-1, 1) 2. Cincinnati (5-0, 2) 3. Colorado (6-1, 3) 4. Ohio State (7-1, 4) 5. Georgetown (5-1, 5) 6. Maryland (5-2, 6) 7. North Carolina (4-2, 7) 8. Syracuse (6-1, 9) 9. Kansas (4-2, 10) 10. UNLV (6-1, 11) 11. Arizona (7-0, 12) 12. Villanova (7-1, 13) 13. Utah (4-2, 8) 14. Washington (6-2, 15) 15. Duke (6-1, 14) 16. Virginia (5-1, 17) 17. Texas (6-1, 18) 18. Wisconsin (6-1, 19) 19. UCLA (6-0, 20) 20. Michigan State (4-3, 16) 21. Marquette (6-1, 21) 22. Iowa State (7-1, 22) 23. Indiana (6-1, 23) 24. Kansas State (3-2, 24) 25. LSU (4-3, 25) NEXT: Alabama, Auburn, Michigan, Pittsburgh, Stanford Dropped Out: None __________________