Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian Swartz
There is widely varying death rates between countries though, which points to the fact that reacting differently, taking different actions for different lengths of time is a significant factor in what those death rates end up being. Just the sheer act of pushing infections later makes that hospital overrun less likely, pushes those infections into warmer weather which means less of them happen at once given the probable impact that has on spread. It also pushes us into a timeframe where we have, as we do now, at least slightly better treatment options so that we can save more people as well as having more ventilators, etc. .
The comparisons can shed light on all these realities.
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Yeah, there are plenty of studies and models out there now that show the difference that even a week earlier or longer makes in terms of certain measures.
Italy shutting down a week or 10 days earlier earlier would have likely prevented half the deaths. And i believe the heavy outbreak in NY (or Italy) and resulting "oh shit !" realisations lead to measures elsewhere going into effect just in time to prevent the worst.
The main issue with the US imo was the vast distances. First many areas were in Lockdown before the virus did major damage, then they got fed up and opened hastily and then the virus spread because while levels were low, they were not super low (and presumably travel picked up).
Elsewhere countries stuck with a national strategy for longer (which is easier over here) and to a point where you can now keep it at a low level while reopening due to targeted Interventions preventing a lot of spread. If you catch the average case or cluster just 2 days earlier, that helps a ton because you can quarantine them earlier and greatly reducing the chance they spread it on unwittingly before getting sick.
Going by what i know, i just don't see how for example Arizona right now is even remotely able to do reliable and fast contact tracing. Estimate in Germany is that anything over 35 cases per 100k per week (so 7 a day) can't really be done promptly and completely by local health departments by themselves and not wanting to overstep i doubt that number is a whole lot higher for a US department. When a whole state is averaging 45 a day per 100k, there is no way they are doing anything but damage controll.
Again, i'll post that neat Austrian case cluster:
https://www.ages.at/fileadmin/_proce...956dddab7f.png
Catch one of the first couple cases earlier and a whole battery of infections never happen.