Quote:
Originally Posted by RainMaker
Oh fuck I messed up. I thought it was how many would we end with. My estimate would be 180k of actual deaths now.
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I think he meant the end number. History books tend not to say "In the year 2020, the Pandemic claimed X deaths from March till June and then went on another year" 
Personally i am afraid winter will be bad in many countries due to a false sense if relative security.
Number will also depend on how much isolation you put in place for retirement homes (which is a cheap out and has ramifications as well) and in general how good a country gets at avoiding it spreading in vulnerable populations.
It will also matter at what situations it spreads and how intensely. A 75 year old catching it at low level of virus transfer (say outdoors or in a shorter conversation with a meter gap) might be less at risk as the same person catching it at a birthday Party in a crowded unventilated room.
At least it is a theory that the initial level of exposure plays a big role in how sick you get.
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“The only people for me are the mad ones, the ones who are mad to live, mad to talk, mad to be saved, desirous of everything at the same time, the ones who never yawn or say a commonplace thing, but burn, burn, burn, like fabulous yellow roman candles exploding like spiders across the stars and in the middle you see the blue centerlight pop and everybody goes "Awww!”
Last edited by whomario : 06-19-2020 at 06:29 PM.
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