I'm guessing 400-500k. There are some states that have been actively putting a thumb on the scale("yeah you have COVID-19 but you also have pneumonia? That's the cause of death! Yay low COVID-19 death rate in our state!"), and early on we had basically no testing combined with a much higher than normal reported rate of respiratory deaths.
Tests weren't done on corpses because why would you waste scarce tests on the dead?
So, yeah, 400-500k is probably closer to the truth right now.
|