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Originally Posted by GrantDawg
*But can you PROVE that harmed the response* sarcasm
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Literally nobody here is arguing that it didn't. The question is about how much, and even more fundamentally the appropriate level of concern about the number relative to other realities.
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Originally Posted by JPhillips
We've had a very short recession at this point. If there were tens or hundreds of thousands of extra unexplained deaths, we'd notice. It would be a tremendous shock to happen in such a short time.
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Certainly. I think the excess deaths is a good estimate of what we've had so far. But we don't know how long of a tail those will have - in other words, how much longer we will have excess deaths after the deployment of a vaccine. That will be an important point of information. There's also a lot of question as to how we should categorize the excess deaths we do have. Trying to nail down the current situation is like trying to predict what things will look like when we're in the endzone while standing on our own 30-yard line.