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Yeah, it's definitely an interesting point. Put another way, the polls that Trump does the best in are the ones that you would expect to sample his followers (the online survey kind) - they get very poor grades and downsampled in most of the aggregators, but what if those are capturing people who are very enthusiastic about voting for a particular candidate where nobody else is.
I worked in the survey industry (IT for a sample provider) 15 years ago, and even then the industry didn't really have an answer for the fact that people were less likely to be able to be identified by their land lines which was the way to generate samples for the previous 50 years. I mean I assume Nate Silver is smart enough to have considered that especially what happened 4 years ago, but it's also something that only happens every 4 years and with social media and Trumpism, we really are in uncharted waters.
I guess we'll find out soon enough. Barring Biden getting Covid (there's a terrible thought) or falling asleep and his false teeth falling out in the debate, it's absolutely clear what the polls are saying and even with some level of voter suppression he should walk to victory. If this one ends up the other way short of Trump just declaring victory at 9pm on election night and declaring martial law, it's clear the current way political polls work are dead. Fool me once...
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