Quote:
Originally Posted by CrimsonFox
I keep seeing facebook ads so by saying ZOMG Trump leading florida by 2! Don't believe the pundits! Michigan is going Republican...etc. I gotta think these are all just ads trying to prompt more donations...right? RIGHT???
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Yup.
There are risks right now for Biden: Polling errors and the GOP stealing the election. He currently leads in the 538 tipping point state (PA) by five points, which is on the bleeding edge of polling errors, but it is not inconceivable. Which is why they give Trump ~10% chance of winning. That's mostly accommodating polling error.
But, as Nate Silver, Harry Enten, etc. were saying on Twitter today, the only "good" numbers for Trump right now are sketchy GOP-affiliated pollsters. Trump has not gained ground with the real pollsters. And the election is happening right now. It is getting too late for him to really be able to change course.
If the numbers are right (or even remotely close), Biden will win.