Quote:
Originally Posted by Thomkal
Yeah I do think he goes to the Supreme Court no matter how much he loses by. But more of what I was asking here is that basically everyone who wants Biden to win wrong about how many people are going to vote for Trumo?
And yes Kavanaugh should be ashamed he wrote that
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The way Nate Silver put it:
Biden is up by about 5 points in the tipping point state (PA)
2 of the last 10 elections have had polling errors > 5 points
There's a 50/50 chance that that polling error could go Trump's way.
So half of a 20% chance is a 10% chance.
So I think that it is more likely than not that Biden will win.
But 10% is a decent chance.
Flip a coin three times. If you get three heads in a row, you've done it. Put in those terms, it does not seem
that unlikely.