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Old 03-03-2021, 04:34 AM   #803
BishopMVP
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Concord, MA/UMass
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fidatelo View Post
But in the evening I started reading about some of the factors Bishop lists above and decided this thing likely still has legs, so I bought back in first thing Friday morning, unfortunately right at the peak (1 share @ $135).

It's going to be interesting to watch over the next 2-3 weeks and see if the DD on these options calls is accurate and if the hedgefunds use even more devious tricks to wriggle off the hook. At this point I've taken enough profit to cover all but $10 of that one share, so I can ride this thing right to the bottom for the price of a movie ticket, which is well worth the entertainment value
Yeah I was hopeful my few $53 GME shares would go higher, thought I saw some real reasons it could jump 2-10x, but was still exceedingly skeptical until Wednesday at 3pm when it took off due to a coordinated option chain. Friday's fight over the eventual strike price cemented it to me - idk exactly what's going on, but very big players are not only on the "long" side, they've actually been buying in & committing serious $$$ to EoD fights over strike prices. Even Monday there was a war to stay over $120 at close, and what did that do? Let anyone who had a contract at $120 exercise it early & demand the shares within 2 days.

Fwiw I don't think it's hedgefunds trying to wriggle off the hook - some maybe, but I genuinely do think Melvin closed out their short positions at a pretty large loss during the January run up, but also passed any remaining risk on to their market maker... Citadel. (Susquehanna pops up too.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by sabotai View Post
Well I do have a very long track record of not learning my lesson.

At least it looks like I can maybe jump back in at a little over $100 Monday morning. But this time I'll only buy a few shares.
Yeah, I don't recommend YOLO'ing, but even the amount of reading I've been doing is worth is if I lose my small initial stake. (And I don't think I will - squeeze or not it genuinely is a company that looks both well positioned & likely to turnaround with a really good CEO known for amazing customer service taking over. Little things like GME partnering with Doordash for same day delivery of video games? That's a great idea someone should have been doing already.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by sterlingice View Post
You see HeyItsPixeL's post this morning?

Endgame DD: How last weeks actions all come together to one specific Date. All the data analyzed. : GME

Again, not educated enough to know what of this is Wall Street fan fiction, what can derail things, or what is just pure false. But it's interesting, to say the least.
I did see that one. That person nailed Wednesday's run-up before it happened, but also predicted a similar squeeze twice since then, and so much of a gamma squeeze requires catching them off guard I don't think the same exact tactics will work if it's this obvious in advance, and a short squeeze requires naked short sellers to admit defeat or be margin called, so I don't think you'll have a fast run up or infinite squeeze from that.

That said, there was some interesting call option activity today for 3/5 - https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/GME/options/ - I basically ignore 800c volume, but it seems worth noting that 20% of the open contracts on 500c's were pulled today, but contracts for 320/330c's both basically doubled today, & 310/315c's had a very large % jump upwards, and nothing else OTM had a noticeable divergence. Might be nothing, but a large amount of $$$ being pushed into a group of OTM call's at a non$50x strike price raises an eyebrow.

A big thing I'm trying to dig into (& getting very little actual info) is how decentralized "market makers" at a place like the Chicago CBoE are, how much a firm like Citadel is on the hook if they default on contracts they wrote, and how much they are literally required by law to keep writing contracts even if they already have massive downside risk - I spend enough time outside the echo chamber to know a lot of people think GME will collapse soon, but even if they thought it wouldn't I'm not sure they have the option to stop writing Call/Put contracts. GME probably already is a Black Swan situation for them, but it sure seems like any situation involving a small float & a cheap underpriced stock is ripe for someone loading up on OTM calls at a cheap cost basis, then forcing a short squeeze if they can pump the stock and start calling them in - at least if there is no cap on the total number of contracts or requirement to actually maintain a delta neutral position on sold contracts.
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