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Bill Walsh, Tom Coughlin, Dennis Green, Jim Harbaugh, Barry Switzer, and Dick Vermeil were all able to win in good environments. All of these guys have led teams to Super Bowl appearances or multiple conference championships. Bill O'Brien and Chip Kelly were both over .500 and made the playoffs in their first NFL stops (Kelly was terrible at SF and dumped his W/L record).
I don't think there is a whole lot to suggest that college to NFL coaches are any more or less successful than retreads or promoted OCs/DCs. If you have or develop a franchise QB, you generally have a good team. If not, you end up out of the job in 3 years.
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