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Edward64 · 12-23-2021, 07:43 AM

Well folks, its been about 2 years since this started.

We were in Hawaii for Christmas in Dec 2019 and remember reading about a virus in China then. NYT and WaPo really warned us in early Feb 2020 (when I started the other thread).

Think I am cautiously optimistic for 2022 for countries that have been using Moderna/Pfizer. I am more pessimistic for those using the China vaccines (read those Sino vaccines/boosters don't work near as well) which is a large part of the non-western world.

Best case in 2022 is new normal in western countries. In non-western countries, getting incrementally better as more vaccines become available and also therapeutics. The additional incremental deaths (largely for the unvaccinated) become acceptable.

Worse case in 2022 is the next omicron which is more infectious and lethal, and Moderna/Pfizer not working as well.

12-23-2021, 07:43 AM	#872
Edward64 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2005	Well folks, its been about 2 years since this started. We were in Hawaii for Christmas in Dec 2019 and remember reading about a virus in China then. NYT and WaPo really warned us in early Feb 2020 (when I started the other thread). Think I am cautiously optimistic for 2022 for countries that have been using Moderna/Pfizer. I am more pessimistic for those using the China vaccines (read those Sino vaccines/boosters don't work near as well) which is a large part of the non-western world. Best case in 2022 is new normal in western countries. In non-western countries, getting incrementally better as more vaccines become available and also therapeutics. The additional incremental deaths (largely for the unvaccinated) become acceptable. Worse case in 2022 is the next omicron which is more infectious and lethal, and Moderna/Pfizer not working as well.