Quote:
Originally Posted by JPhillips
It worked out and it wouldn't have made a big difference, but I don't understand the final bet of the winner. Any was going to bet enough to win if he doubled, but not much more. I understand betting just enough to beat Amy if she misses and I understand betting as much as you can but still guarantee 2nd if you lose. I even understand betting it all on a YOLO. I don't understand betting 12K.
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Seemed like a math error to me. 11k would have been a better bet, since you still guarantee second ($2,000 in winnings is better than $1,000), and you have to assume Amy is likely to be correct and will bet enough to cover second place.
So... 27,600, 3,200, 17,600.
Amy will bet at least $7,601 (she bet $8,000 - if you've been watching, she almost always went with a multiple of 1k for anything). Amy is unlikely to bet more than $9,999, as that would risk a loss if it were a triple-stumper.
Rhone needs to bet $10,001 to win no matter what if Amy misses and bets nothing, and no more than $11,199 to ensure he stays ahead of Janice. A bet of $2,400 would cover getting it right and the lowest amount he can assume Amy will bet.
Or, he can gamble a bit, and bet the full $17,600 if he doesn't care that much between $2,000 and $1,000. That way he gets $35,200 if he wins instead of the $29,600 he received. He would essentially leave a potential $17,600 - $11,199 = $6,401 on the table in order to secure that $1,000 difference between second and third.
Since Amy was 68% over the course of her run in Final, it's an interesting decision. But not that much to work through, because Amy wouldn't make the mistake of betting less than $7,601 or more than $9,999.
There's no value in betting less than $11,199 since Amy doesn't have to risk becoming vulnerable to a triple-stumper.
TL
R, yes, the $12k wasn't an optimal bet, though I don't understand betting anything less than $11,199.