[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I have no links and am not really interested in looking for them - how likely prognosticators think it is that we would defend Taiwan militarily is not particularly interesting to me, and such writings tend to bogged down in irrelevancies.

The links are important because it shows third party analysis, theoretically more knowledgeable than you and me, that answers your original discussion topic below. I assume that has been asked and answered.

Why would (not defending) Taiwan lead to a greater loss of US credibility than Ukraine?

We are now, per your paragraph below, pivoting to how would we defend Taiwan and can we sustain the initial patriotic spike. On how the US will defend, I've read numerous articles but suffice to say there are plans. Weaponry & air/sea vs boots on the ground.

The only way we could even arguably do that is if we are willing to commit everything we have in our military to doing it. Right now as a complete abstraction the US public is split fairly evenly on the issue. If China seriously invaded, and we seriously tried to stop them, casualties would be extreme. To my mind it's simply highly self-evident that it would take less than two weeks of the resulting dead bodies piling up for the country to demand we pull out. I think as soon as it became clear to whoever was President at the time that China wasn't bluffing, we'd be gone.

Regarding body count, we're now in the realm of my opinion, so take it for what its worth ...

Whether or not the US public will support the continue defense with the likely US casualties depends on how it started/who was the aggressor, if US/Taiwan is winning the war, are allies helping, and of course, the body count. Using an admittedly extreme example, if the US has lost 20 planes and China has lost 200 planes and/or if US has lost 5 ships and China has lost 50 ships ... fair chance US public morale will still be good.

But yes, no doubt if the US has a high body count and seemingly losing the war, we'll limp home with tail between our legs ... ceding APAC to China for the next 40-50 years.

Where Ukraine is relevant is the commitment that we and Europe have. What we're wiling to do about it. If we won't even commit our air force to help Ukraine, why would anyone think we're willing to put everything including boots on the ground in whatever numbers are required to help Taiwan? How do you sell that to the average American, when you know that a nuclear attack is just Xi waking up on the wrong side of the bed/getting the wrong advice from his advisors away?

I don't think I've read an article that says US will put boots on the ground in Taiwan. Other than some advisors, trainers and like, the US will support by providing a ton of weaponry (anti-aircraft, anti-ship), using carrier groups/submarines to own the air and sea.

But the gist of your statement is why would the US help defend Taiwan when it's not willing to do same for Ukraine? I think this has been asked and answered. Taiwan is much more strategic to US than Ukraine is. And in a way, Ukraine is more of a Western Europe problem. I am sure Western Europe will feel the same that a Taiwan conflict is more of a US problem.

Taiwan is quite a bit more important, but also orders of magnitude more dangerous. Far more dangerous than it is more important, in other words. And the world has consistently shown, whether it's North Korea, whether it's Iran, that we don't have teeth when it comes to facing down nuclear powers. They get what they want almost every time. Positive signs today that we may be moving somewhat in the right direction here, but I'll believe that we've got the required backbone when I see it.

I agree that Taiwan/China is much more dangerous to the US. As far as "facing down" nuclear powers, sure we've had failures but lets not paint it as total failures. We faced down USSR in Cuba pretty well. We faced down USSR for the 30 years or so on the Cold War. We stalemated on NK. I can concede we've lost/stalemated on Ukraine. Unsure about Iran, don't think they are a nuclear power yet but even if they were, I'll call that a stalemate.



The bottom line to me in our back and forth is

(1) Should the US defend Taiwan if China attacks militarily. Yes (but the more likely scenario is China will do non-military things to eventually own Taiwan).
(2) Can the US sustain a conventional war effort supporting Taiwan vs China. This is TBD. There is a point where the US will cut our losses. But I can also see where China, if punch in it's nose enough times, will cut their losses too.