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I think it will end as a win/lose for Russia. They will expand and take complete control of the east. They will have also successfully damaged Ukraine that will take a generation to recover from. But they will fail in removing the Ukraine government to install a puppet, and will have completely tarnished their reputation as a fighting force. Their military will come out majorly depleted, and there will be no fear of further expansion as NATO will have them completely surrounded and outgunned. It will be a "victory", but will end Putin's dream of a Greater Russia.
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