[Izulde]

End of January Report
Bristol West - 2nd - -6%
x:Thangam Debbonaire (LAB): 37% (-2%) (-8 Mo)
Carla Denyer (GRN): 31% (+3%) (+6 Mo)
Suria Aujla (CON): 13% (-1%) (-12 Mo)
Neil Robert Hipkiss (BRX): 5% (+3 Mo)

Another three weeks go by and we officially have a race on our hands. Denyer is becoming the bona fide rising star of the Green Party, as the 32 year old has narrowed Debbonaire's lead to single digits. Labour has supplied their now-embattled incumbent with 2 Foot Soldiers, but will it be enough against Greens' full-force support and advertising?

Dulwich and West Northwood - 3rd to 2nd - -18%
x-Helen Hayes (LAB): 43% (+2%) (-2 Mo)
Jonathan Bartley (GRN): 25% (+2%) (+4 Mo)
Jane Lyons (CON): 14% (-1%)
Julia Caroline Stephenson: 5% (NC)

Largely unchanged since our last review. Hayes has expanded her organization to match what we can and the Foot Soldiers and advertising are still here. Bartley, the former co-leader of the Green Party, just can't seem to break through the wall to make up actual ground.

Isle of Wight - 7th to 45th - -27%
x-Bob Seely (CON): 46% (+2%) (-2 Mo)
Vix Lowthion (GRN): 18% (-2%) (+4 Mo)
Richard Quigley (LAB): 12% (-5%) (-2 Mo)
Darryl Pitcher/Karl Love/Carl Feeney (IND): 5% (NC)

Might be time to abandon this one. Although support is gradually coalescing around Lowthion as the left-aligned alternative to Seely, the Isle of Wight shows no interest in abandoning their man. At the very least, no additional aid will be given to Lowthion, who has proven the most disappointing performer by far.

Warrington North - 5th to 12th - -24%
Wendy Maisey (CON): 32% (+0.4%) (-10 Mo)
y-Charlotte Nichols (LAB): 26% (-2%) (-8 Mo)
David Crowther (LIB): 11% (+1%) (+2 Mo)
Elizabeth Babade (BRX): 11% (+1%)
Lyndsay McAteer (GRN): 8% (NC) (+6 Mo)

Maisey might be starting to pull away, but Green isn't quite ready to give up on McAteer yet, despite appearing to have stalled out. Momentum is on her side and there's drainage happening to both Brexit and Green.

New Addition: Hull West & Hessle - 3rd - -18%
y-Emma Hardy (LAB): 23% (-8 Mo)
Michelle Dewberry (BRX): 22% (+6 Mo)
Christine Mackay (Con): 21% (-4 Mo)
Claire Thomas (LIB): 13% (+4 Mo)
Mike Lammiman (GRN): 5%

The Brexit Party is pouring a TON of advertising money into this one, and consequently they've turned the race into a three-way dogfight that's opened an opportunity for Lammiman to perhaps rise from the shadows and put himself in legitimate contention for the seat. It's the first riding to naturally rise to under 20%, so it's worth investing in to see what happens.

National Picture: 326 Seats Needed for Majority
Conservatives: 361(-6 seats) (34%) (-0.6%) (298 seats formerly)
Labour: 170 (-13 seats) (22.1%) (+0.3%) (244 seats formerly)
Lib Dems: 17 (+4 seats) (15.1%) (+1.3%) (21 seats formerly)
Brexiteers: 5 (+5 seats) (5.7%) (-0.4%) (New Party)
Greens: 1 (3.7%) (+0.1%) (1 seat formerly)
Independents/Change UK: 3 (+1 seat) (1%) (NC) (5 seats formerly)
-------------
SNP: 48 (-3 seats) (3.4%) (-0.1%) (35 seats formerly)
DUP: 8 (-1 seat) (0.6%) (10 seats formerly)
Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1 seat) (0.4%) (-0.1%) (4 seats formerly)
Sinn Fein: 4 (0.5%) (7 seats formerly)
Alliance: 1 (0.4%) (0 seats formerly)
Ulster Unionists: 2 (+1 seat) (0.5%) (+0.1%) (0 seats formerly)
SDLP: 2 (0.3%) (+0.1%) (0 seats formerly)

Note: I might stop tracking the percentage for the regional parties and just look at seats. The fluctuations are so small as to not really matter.

Labour continues right on bleeding seats and the Conservatives are experiencing chaos into toss-ups as well. The Lib Dems are slowly emerging as a possible return to their previous seat holdings, while the Brexiteers have suddenly acquired 5 seats and are in contention for at least one more tossup. SNP is still on track to top the last outing, loss of seats aside. The Ulster Unionists won't challenge the DUP for the unionist side banner any time soon, but they're making themselves a more notable presence in Northern Ireland.