Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum
Mark Halperen was on the radio today (yes I know his history) saying it is more likely republicans pick up 4 senate seats then the dems maintaining 50/50. I find that hard to believe.
|
+4 is a no-miss wave - everything close cuts their way. Beyond that requires Patty Murray or Michael Bennet, and I think even the least realistic on the red side aren't really going there. Though, these days, if you want to get on television, you have to be out there.
0 or even -1 isn't that hard to fathom. And even -2 would only require someone who has very little middle-road cred, like J.D. Vance or Ron Johnson, falling short. My sense, being in Ohio, is that Vance is pretty safe. But not like Patty Murray safe.
I think I'll end up at +1 or +2 for the Republicans, but we know Georgia's going to Georgia and decide it in December. At which point, who knows, Trump could throw another fit and piss Georgia off all over again. I see 0 as a lot more likely than +4.
Congress, though. That's not going to be very close.