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Old 11-27-2022, 08:30 AM   #1460
Solecismic
Solecismic Software
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Canton, OH
I have a quick ranking system I use in place of the detailed one I used for a long time. It's based in part on computer rankings, with additions that mirror what the committee says it uses in determining their list.

There is no beauty contest component, though, so a methodical push through a ever-dangerous schedule gets rewarded a little more. I would add a statistical component if I were actually voting.

I've only listed teams with two losses or less. There are teams with more losses (Kansas State in particular) that would likely be ahead of Clemson here.

USC will get enough points if it beats Utah to go into fourth here. Clemson would pass Penn State, but go no further.

1. TCU 71.6 (8)
2. Georgia 70.8 (8)
3. Michigan 69.6 (6)
4. Alabama 66.7 (6)
5. Ohio State 66.1 (6)
6. USC 64.6 (4)
7. Tennessee 64.0 (6)
8. Penn State 62.0 (5)
9. Clemson 57.9 (4)
10. Washington 53.8 (4)

The number in parenthesis is the number of wins against teams in the top 50 of the computer ranking I used, which does have a statistical component.

If my goal were a power ranking, even more of a statistical component and I'd remove the bonus simply for winning a game against an opponent that shouldn't be much of a challenge.

Of all the results so far this year in this group, 9 of the 12 losses were on the road and only Clemson's recent loss to South Carolina was at home to a lower-ranked team. Obviously, Washington's loss at Arizona State stands out as most difficult to reconcile with a top team. When you're looking for signature wins, Michigan gets the big prize with yesterday's result. Georgia and TCU have the better overall resumes - TCU's win at Texas, in particular, warrants a "yeah, you belong" response.

In all, this is an unusually easy analysis. I still think if any of the undefeated teams lose next week, they're still in unless it's a complete demoralizing blowout. USC deserves the fourth spot with a win. If they lose, the committee has a hard choice, but can't really make a wrong choice.

Last edited by Solecismic : 11-27-2022 at 08:39 AM.
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