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I've written a lot about quarterbacks and the Hall of Fame. Maybe too much. We have some interesting cases coming up that will redefine the standards. I should update my work on this, though.
Throwing the concepts out there. Overall performance level and longevity+Super Bowl seem to be the determining factors. There are almost no exceptions. The only past quarterback I've found who "should" be in and isn't is Ken Anderson.
However, increased longevity is going to force a re-evaluation. And the unusually long period in which only one QB has even been voted on (Peyton Manning) is allowing that re-evaluation to feel natural.
It's telling that someone who passes the statistical test without a Super Bowl appearance (Tony Romo) didn't even get to the voting semifinals. Quarterbacks who reach the semifinals get in pretty quickly because of name recognition. The Romo case illustrates that the re-evaluation is indeed real.
What do you do about similar players? Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan. Both have exceptional numbers, but it's year after year accumulation and Ryan's one Super Bowl appearance is notable only for the most notorious collapse from lock status in (I would say, not knowing much about the history of the other sport called football) sports history. I don't think Rivers gets in. I think Ryan, even though he's someone who declined early and this past season's performance might be what he is right now, will get in. These two will redefine that border.
The second category is players who have the big game success without the statistical excellence. That's going to be Eli Manning. I don't think he gets in, either, though the parallel case 20 years earlier was an easy choice (John Elway).
We have four certain choices coming up: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger. All have the stats, the accumulated wins, at least one Super Bowl win. It's not close in any of these cases, and that may be what keeps Rivers, Ryan and Eli Manning from even getting to the semifinals.
The Hall has historically admitted one QB every two years, on average. The Big Five - Peyton Manning (1998 entry), Brady (2000), Brees (2001), Roethlisberger (2004), and Rodgers (2005) - should account for ten years' worth.
Trying to get to five from the next ten years or so...
Candidates:
2008 - Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. Ryan certainly has the numbers on both sides. Flacco has wins and a Super Bowl MVP, but is more like Eli Manning in accumulated performance. I'd say Ryan is going to be close and Flacco isn't.
2009 - Matthew Stafford. Not quite up to the statistical standard, sheer number of wins is there, but below-.500, which is an anomaly on its own. Not close.
2011 - Cam Newton and Andy Dalton. Neither will (or in Newton's case, did) reach either standard.
2012 - At this point, we're talking about careers with some life left. The obvious generational player, Andrew Luck, retired very early. Then there's Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins. Cousins is starting to look a little like Ryan, without the one Super Bowl appearance. Tannehill doesn't seem like he's going to get close. So Wilson... you have the total wins and an unusually good W/L record. You have the stats. You have two Super Bowl appearances and one win. I'd say absolutely yes, even if this year is his new performance level.
2013 - 2015. The best potential candidates we have from this group are Jimmy Garoppolo and Derek Carr. And neither is worthy of an evaluation right now.
After that, we'll get 2016 - Dak Prescott and Jared Goff, 2017 - Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. Obviously lots left to define in those careers, but Mahomes is already looking like a no-doubt-about-it choice.
Ranking five from 2006-2015: Wilson, Ryan, Stafford, Cousins, Flacco. In the age of the quarterback, and this is what we have for ten solid years? Maybe the standards are too high after Brady/Peyton Manning and these guys aren't that bad.
But we're not getting to five from those ten classes. We don't have to get to five by any means. The Hall doesn't care about that. However, this is why I think Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers will prompt some serious debate and Wilson (definitely) and Ryan (probably) are getting in.
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