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As always, I start trying to figure out the pace scenario for the actual field, even before we have the gate order.
This year there's a profound density of stalker/closer types among the consensus top contenders. Most of the biggest hitters want to sit back and make a run at the leaders. FORTE and PRACTICAL MOVE and TAPIT TRICE certainly have the talent to do so, and I won't rule either one out.
But who takes the lead after a quarter mile, and who presses that pace to keep things honest up front? WILD ON ICE would have been part of that equation, but alas. So... KINGSBARNS? (yes) REINCARNATE? VERIFYING? Maybe another longshot or two like JACE'S ROAD or CONFIDENCE GAME?
I often look to the pace scenario and try to find overlays and underlays. The thin read here is that there's too little talent up front and too much in the back end, and that a couple smart trainers/jocks will see that and push their guy more early than they otherwise would if this were just another prep race.
Rather than try to manufacture a winner out of some of the cheap speed (which we have most definitely seen happen, don't get me wrong) I will probably look that direction. Like, ANGEL OF EMPIRE fits the bill. Two back, he got dragged into a maybe crazy early pace setup in the Risen Star and still kicked home for the win... I'll rewatch that and see if it points to him running 5th instead of 12th in the big race.
Warming up to HIT SHOW being on my use-for-value list.
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