Another angle worth reading and digesting:
Ky. Derby formula: Fractions, figures trim contenders to 5 or 6
In particular, since the Derby is a longer distance than nearly any entry has ever run before, we'd like some insight into their ability to get that longer 1/14m distance. The manner in which they finished their last race is a useful, though not perfect, indicator there. Last 3 furlongs in under 38 seconds is, for some, a litmus test... if you finished more slowly than that your last time out, you won't get the Derby distance and can be thrown out.
If you subscribe, then toss BLAZING SEVENS and REINCARNATE.
The final furling is a less reliable measure, but it shines poorly onto MAGE and perhaps PRACTICAL MOVE (a major player on the tote board, but he clocked 13s even for his last furlong, right on the border of being a "strike" there).