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Brian Swartz · 11-12-2023, 06:17 PM

Year 108 Top Ten Rankings

1. Ene Caballero (27, ESP, 86%, 9.03, -0.03) - 14,250

Caballero won only 1 of the 4 Slams, yet is #1 after taking the Tour Finals and 5 of the Masters. His spot is not at all secure; this doesn't feel like a changing of the guard moment, but more him taking advantage of the door left open for him by the number of Masters Faille chose not to play - 3 compared to the 1 that Caballero skipped. On the other hand, the Spaniard has won 6 of their past 8 meetings. It's ... complicated. If you asked me who the better player is, I'd have to say I really don't know. It's that close.

2. Ben Faille (29, FRA, 81%, 9.02, -0.09) - 13,960

Having now regressed to the rank of mere mortal, Faille made some curious decisions; one of which was to play a 500 event, then skip his home Masters at Paris. Had he played and won Paris, he'd still be #1. Ben lost eight matches this last year, more than he has since he was a rising 21-year-old. He might still be the best player in the world, but for the first time since his ascension it's a legitimate question.

If he never gets back to #1, he'll end up 4th all-time in longevity on that list. Still 5th in prize money, 4th in Masters, T-4th in Tour Finals and it seems unlikely he'll add to that total, and 3rd in Slams with 30. He needs only one more tie Mateo Kaspar for Slam titles and two to surpass him, which seems likely to happen. Only Chris Adams can say without fear of contradiction that he had a better career.

3. Jan Schleicher (25, AUT, 92%, 8.94, +0.14) - 8,380

The gap between Schleicher and the top two didn't really change last year, but the gap should narrow more going forward. Jan is probably about a year away from his peak, and potentially good enough to be a more consistent threat.

4. Johann Przalowik (30, DEU, 83%, 8.77, -0.08) - 7,300

Przalowik probably has another year left as the Top 4's gatekeeper. Now on the north side of 30, he is close to the end but still quite capable.

5. Kabo Mankaba (26, ZAF, 92%, 8.75, +0.02) - 4,795

A solid rise for the second year in a row for Mankaba, who has established himself as the next man up. He's quite similar to Schleicher but just not quite as good, and might well reach the #2 spot in a couple years time.

6. Goya Banqueria (29, ESP, 82%, 8.52, -0.03) - 4,500

Last year I noted that I thought Banqueria was about to lose the battle with time. He responded with a stronger-than-expected showing on clay, actually rebounding a spot from 7th. An impressive showing, and he did well to not decline further in his skills, but he's definitely overachieving at this point.

7. Jason Abercrombie (25, AUS, 92%, 8.64, -0.03) - 4,150

Abercrombie's abilities have plateaued early the last couple of years, a reflection of his management it would seem. He still moved up to make his first Tour Finals as we expected, as a couple of previous participants made their farewells.

8. Alvin Fant (25, USA, 93%, 8.58, +0.02) - 3,955

Fant surprised me for the second year in a row. I once said he wouldn't make the first page; now it seems he may make an appearance in the Top 5. There are better players pushing up behind him however, even if they don't have the benefit of American crowds.

9. Michael Sachse (24, DEU, 93%, 8.69, -0.04) - 3,270

Sachse made a few quarterfinals in big events, but mostly rode strong showings in 500s to make the Top 10. He figures to be a factor for another couple of years at least.

10. Iljia Starkov (24, RUS, 95%, 8.92, +0.16) - 3,120

I have Starkov as no worse than 4th in the world on paper. A long-delayed rise had him slash his ranking in half last year, and he should just be getting started. Iljia is good enough that he should replace somebody in the Tour Finals this year, and it's only a matter of time until he pushes the field aside to claim his moment at the top.

Analysis

Davide de Laurentiis, Chris King, and Jochen Weigle all were eliminated from the first page in the past year; Fant, Sachse, and Starkov replaced them. While only Schleicher and Starkov are notably better than they were a year ago, the turnover slightly increased the average rating of the Top 10 from 8.77 to 8.79. With Knesebeck and Raychaudhari knocking on the door, I expect there will be enough upward pressure to offset the decline in established players by continuing the turnover.

11-12-2023, 06:17 PM	#1498
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Year 108 Top Ten Rankings 1. Ene Caballero (27, ESP, 86%, 9.03, -0.03) - 14,250 Caballero won only 1 of the 4 Slams, yet is #1 after taking the Tour Finals and 5 of the Masters. His spot is not at all secure; this doesn't feel like a changing of the guard moment, but more him taking advantage of the door left open for him by the number of Masters Faille chose not to play - 3 compared to the 1 that Caballero skipped. On the other hand, the Spaniard has won 6 of their past 8 meetings. It's ... complicated. If you asked me who the better player is, I'd have to say I really don't know. It's that close. 2. Ben Faille (29, FRA, 81%, 9.02, -0.09) - 13,960 Having now regressed to the rank of mere mortal, Faille made some curious decisions; one of which was to play a 500 event, then skip his home Masters at Paris. Had he played and won Paris, he'd still be #1. Ben lost eight matches this last year, more than he has since he was a rising 21-year-old. He might still be the best player in the world, but for the first time since his ascension it's a legitimate question. If he never gets back to #1, he'll end up 4th all-time in longevity on that list. Still 5th in prize money, 4th in Masters, T-4th in Tour Finals and it seems unlikely he'll add to that total, and 3rd in Slams with 30. He needs only one more tie Mateo Kaspar for Slam titles and two to surpass him, which seems likely to happen. Only Chris Adams can say without fear of contradiction that he had a better career. 3. Jan Schleicher (25, AUT, 92%, 8.94, +0.14) - 8,380 The gap between Schleicher and the top two didn't really change last year, but the gap should narrow more going forward. Jan is probably about a year away from his peak, and potentially good enough to be a more consistent threat. 4. Johann Przalowik (30, DEU, 83%, 8.77, -0.08) - 7,300 Przalowik probably has another year left as the Top 4's gatekeeper. Now on the north side of 30, he is close to the end but still quite capable. 5. Kabo Mankaba (26, ZAF, 92%, 8.75, +0.02) - 4,795 A solid rise for the second year in a row for Mankaba, who has established himself as the next man up. He's quite similar to Schleicher but just not quite as good, and might well reach the #2 spot in a couple years time. 6. Goya Banqueria (29, ESP, 82%, 8.52, -0.03) - 4,500 Last year I noted that I thought Banqueria was about to lose the battle with time. He responded with a stronger-than-expected showing on clay, actually rebounding a spot from 7th. An impressive showing, and he did well to not decline further in his skills, but he's definitely overachieving at this point. 7. Jason Abercrombie (25, AUS, 92%, 8.64, -0.03) - 4,150 Abercrombie's abilities have plateaued early the last couple of years, a reflection of his management it would seem. He still moved up to make his first Tour Finals as we expected, as a couple of previous participants made their farewells. 8. Alvin Fant (25, USA, 93%, 8.58, +0.02) - 3,955 Fant surprised me for the second year in a row. I once said he wouldn't make the first page; now it seems he may make an appearance in the Top 5. There are better players pushing up behind him however, even if they don't have the benefit of American crowds. 9. Michael Sachse (24, DEU, 93%, 8.69, -0.04) - 3,270 Sachse made a few quarterfinals in big events, but mostly rode strong showings in 500s to make the Top 10. He figures to be a factor for another couple of years at least. 10. Iljia Starkov (24, RUS, 95%, 8.92, +0.16) - 3,120 I have Starkov as no worse than 4th in the world on paper. A long-delayed rise had him slash his ranking in half last year, and he should just be getting started. Iljia is good enough that he should replace somebody in the Tour Finals this year, and it's only a matter of time until he pushes the field aside to claim his moment at the top. Analysis Davide de Laurentiis, Chris King, and Jochen Weigle all were eliminated from the first page in the past year; Fant, Sachse, and Starkov replaced them. While only Schleicher and Starkov are notably better than they were a year ago, the turnover slightly increased the average rating of the Top 10 from 8.77 to 8.79. With Knesebeck and Raychaudhari knocking on the door, I expect there will be enough upward pressure to offset the decline in established players by continuing the turnover.