[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I'm obviously not an expert, but things seem much less concerning to me than they did post-Covid and when Ukraine-Russia were first heating up.

I agree with you. Economy and inflation are better now than before.

But with inflation seemingly beaten, the markets are now asking "what have you done for me lately" and recession is next up worry, and because of how it may impact the elections, it is even more worrisome.

What are you seeing that worries you about a slide or recession? Markets have had a great YTD (Dow up over 8%, NASDAQ and S&P over 16%) and are all up over the last month. With interests rate higher than most of us are used to, they have cuts available if/when needed. And, presumably, whoever is elected will have some type of tax cut program that will also be available.

Let me first say that I don't know if/when a recession will hit, and I'm not saying it will (e.g. my statement started with "if"). The old rule of thumb of 2 quarters negative GDPs for a recession was invalidated 1.5-2 years ago when that happened but apparently it wasn't really a recession because job growth was strong. Also, I know experts were talking recession fears in 4Q of 2023 and they were wrong.

Regarding my statement

If the market continues to slide or recession fears dominate the news, won't be good for Kamala.

Stuff I've read says the egg heads are saying 20-25% chance of recession. So certainly, not a sure thing.

But the chatter picked up in Aug because there was a weaker than expected job reports which contributed to the market dip. And later in Aug, the strong jobs reports in the past year was corrected. Note that Jobs strength is one key input into the Fed decision making. Therefore, the Fed stubbornly NOT decreasing rates earlier this year because of supposed strong jobs, may have been a mistake (e.g. didn't act soon enough ala transitory inflation 2-3 years ago).

The federal government routinely revises economic data, but it rarely makes a correction as large as it did on Wednesday, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported America’s economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than it initially thought over the past year.

So, no sure signs yet. There's another jobs report this Fri and it'll be another data point.

FWIW, I'm on record as saying if I had to pick either stubborn inflation or a recession, I'd pick a recession. So I'm not particularly worried about a recession other than how it could adversely impact the election and the markets (which I know will eventually recover).