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Originally Posted by dawgfan
I would assume that is correct. And FWIW, this probably isn't far from how it works in reality, once you correct for small sample sizes, based on growing research from the SABR community.
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Interestingly, if I interpret him correctly, Bill James' latest paper disagrees with this growing research (that all splits are essentially the same). In fact, in this paper he even says he's not sure, but there may actually be something to clutch performance  as well.
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