JBL | The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season, Day 41: This Day WILL Have Brackets!
At various points throughout the year, The Quad will be attempting to do some Bracketology. This is a rather crude process, given the information that needs to be processed, and the deadlines that need to be reached in order to publish on time.
That all said, we produced an initial bracket that seems solid and indicative of where the teams sit at this stage of the season, as the non-conference portion of the season winds down. So, here it is.
East
Duke sits atop the East region, which makes sense, given how well they have done with the ridiculously tough schedule they have faced. We do not have a top seed overall here, to be honest. Connecticut, a 63-60 loser at Duke this season, is the #2 seed. The Huskies have played a grueling slate themselves, and have earned the chance to be in the East to this point. An argument can be made that they should be a top seed, given their RPI (#2 in the nation).
ACC rival Virginia is the three seed, which speaks to the kind of excellence there has been at the top of the ACC. Four teams are top-three seeds from the ACC.
Illinois being on the four line says two things: It's a nod to the start the Fighting Illini have had so far, and also, that there is a sizable logjam between the 4 and 6 seeds, which is all up for conjecture. This is best represented in the daily Quad 25, where teams from 15-25 are shifting all over the place. The only consistent thing is in its occupants.
Memphis sits at the 7 seed, which is an interesting fit. We still believe in Memphis being a solid unit throughout the year, and utlimately cementing their seeding at perhaps a higher spot than here. Right now, this is perhaps too high for them. It's possible that you could interchange them with Arkansas. For now, we'll keep them at this spot.
East Region
1) Duke (ACC) vs 16) Hartford (AEC)/Florida A&M (MEAC)
8) Arkansas (At-Large) vs 9) Utah (At-Large)
4) Illinois (At-Large) vs 13) Drexel (CAA)
5) Florida (At-Large) vs 12) Penn (Ivy)
3) Virginia (At-Large) vs 14) Bryant (NEC)
6) Purdue (At-Large) vs 11) George Washington (A-10)
7) Memphis (AAC) vs 10) Wisconsin (At-Large)
2) Connecticut (Big East) vs 15) Fairfield (MAAC)
South
Indiana sits as the top seed, and, we suppose, the top seed overall, is there is one. Duke can lay claim to this spot, but for now, we think our top team in the poll is worthy of the top overall seed. We have believed in the Hoosiers all season long; why stop now?
Kentucky, meanwhile, has continually moved up in the polls. For now, given their undefeated record, and their top-in-the-country RPI, they have earned their way here. NC State, another team who has risen steadily through the season, gain the three-seed here.
We put Missouri at the 4; we originally had Georgetown there, before moving them down and shifting a couple of things. The Tigers are deserving of this rank at this stage, and so, we stash them here. We do think that Pitt is a bit of a smoke-and-mirrors production so far, but they are still undefeated. So, reward the start.
This also has one of the at-large play-in games, St. John's vs Penn State. We believed St. John's start to not be sustainable, and they are proving that to be the case; however, they are still among the top teams in both RPI and SOS. Penn State, meanwhile, have been quite competitive, though they have had difficulty closing the door. They could be worthy of a simple at-large spot. As we said, this was done somewhat...not crudely, but it was not done with the amount of research that, say, a CJBL Tournament Committee member would do. (Ahem.)
South Region
1) Indiana (Big Ten) vs 16) Northwestern State (Southland)
8) Stanford (At-Large) vs 9) Oklahoma State (At-Large)
4) Missouri (At-Large) vs 13) Navy (Patriot)
5) Pittsburgh (At-Large) vs 12) Murray State (OVC)
3) NC State (At-Large) vs 14) UNC Greensboro (Southern)
6) Michigan (At-Large) vs 11) St. John's/Penn State
7) UCLA (At-Large) vs 10) Marquette (At-Large)
2) Kentucky (SEC) vs 15) South Carolina Upstate (Big South)
Midwest
Kansas gets the top billing in this region, while Arizona gets the 2. We had wanted to stay away from rematches. We ended up with four potential Elite Eight 1/2 rematches, something we did not notice until after the fact. Such is life. Also, whoops.
(Also, the elite have scheduled the elite, for the most part. When that happens, this feels unavoidable.)
Michigan State and Washington round out the top four. Michigan State has gotten off to a rough start, and are now 5-4. Their losses, though, are to Kansas, Kentucky, UConn, and USC. Three of those were on the road. And they own a road win at Duke. We feel fine about this placement right now. (Talk to us again early in Big Ten play.)
Washington at the 4 is more interesting. They have a NetRtg of just 3.7, due primarily to their rough offense. The St. Mary's loss was not a good one (but they get them again on 53). They do own wins over Florida and Texas, but they have a weaker resume overall than any other top-four seed. This is where a team like Ohio State, who has the five seed here, could slide in.
Georgetown is the seven seed, which is an interesting placement. We believe they could be higher once BIg East play. But we originally had them as a four, then as a six. They are now a seven. So...obviously, they are not trending in the right direction. Syracuse being at the 8 is also one we feel might be too low, but right now, this is the makeup of this bracket. All of these teams have imperfect resumes. So there is a lot more regional placement and jumbling to keep teams situated in a feasible bracket, while respecting the current resume. That whole group from 7-10 is indicative of this.
Midwest Region
1) Kansas (Big 12) vs 16 Little Rock (Sun Belt)/Liberty (Atlantic Sun)
8) Syracuse (At-Large) vs 9) Minnesota (At-Large)
4) Washington (At-Large) vs 13) Kent State (MAC)
5) Ohio State (At-Large) vs 12) Marshall (CUSA)
6) Iowa State (At-Large) vs 11) UNLV (At-Large)
3) Michigan State (At-Large) vs 14) Illinois-Chicago (Horizon)
7) Georgetown (At-Large) vs 10) Louisville (At-Large)
2) Arizona (Pac-12) vs 15) Texas Southern (SWAC)
West
We have Southern Cal, a team we like and have liked more all season long than the AP, atop the region. This is in spite of North Carolina, our 2 seed, having beaten USC back on Day 3. This is simply our view. We would say that UNC is probably the top two-seed (though Kentucky and UConn have solid arguments here). USC gets to travel to UNC again on 46, which was a scheduled non-conference game (the first one was a tournament game). If UNC turns them away again, they would justifiably be on the top line. Or UConn would. Or Kentucky. (It would probably be UConn, given their RPI+SOS ranks them atop the nation.)
Colorado lost their first game to Penn State, but they are still our three-seed. We have been impressed with them so far this season, and their rank is deserved.
San Diego State, a team that has steadily risen all year, takes the four due to Texas' landslide down the polls. The Mountain West looks to be excellent shape this year, with three teams currently involved in the bracket (UNLV is, at the moment, the last "safe" at-large, while New Mexico is in the play-in game in the West, against Kansas State).
We do have Texas at the 5 spot, but that is perilous. They have lost four of five, and three straight. We do think it is due to the competition and strain of that competition, but what happens in conference play? Is Texas up for this challenge?
This bracket might be the strangest and has the most variance, with Michigan, Villanova, Georgia Tech, Maryland, and Gonzaga taking up the middle rungs of the ladder. Any of those teams could rise up and become a top-four. Any of them could fall down, too. If you needed to know anything about these teams, know that the above was their original order, before we moved Michigan down to the 9-seed because of their recent slide. Villanova might not be a six-seed (Maryland might be a better fit there), but we feel like all of these teams are incomplete. We did look at moving Utah up, but that would create a whole chain reaction of events. So we decided, nah, we're good.
We do imagine we could hear from WCC teams San Diego and St. Mary's about their lack of inclusion here. Yes, we know San Diego beat Memphis. Yes, we know St. Mary's beat Washington. The Quad just isn't there yet. Both teams are off to good starts, and there could be an argument to be made that either could replace Kansas State or St. John's in a play-in game. It's not like the Wildcats are lighting it up these days.
West Region
1) Southern Cal (Pac-12) vs 16) Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
8) Georgia Tech (At-Large) vs 9) Michigan (At-Large)
4) Texas (At-Large) vs 13) Long Beach State (Big West)
5) San Diego State (MWC) vs 12) Illinois State (MVC)
3) Colorado (At-Large) vs 14) New Mexico State (WAC)
6) Villanova (At-Large) vs 11) New Mexico/Kansas State
7) Maryland (At-Large) vs 10) Gonzaga (WCC)
2) North Carolina (At-Large) vs 15) South Dakota State (Summit)
The Quad 25
Day 41, 2028
1. Indiana (7-1, 1)
2. USC (7-1, 3)
3. North Carolina (9-1, 4)
4. Duke (8-2, 2)
5. Connecticut (8-2, 5)
6. Kentucky (8-0, 6)
7. NC State (9-0, 7)
8. Arizona (7-2, 9)
9. Kansas (7-3, 8)
10. Virginia (9-0, 12)
11. Washington (6-2, 11)
12. Colorado (7-1, 11)
13. Michigan State (5-4, 10)
14. Missouri (7-1, 15)
15. Illinois (8-1, 14)
16. Pittsburgh (8-0, 16)
17. Florida (6-2, 17)
18. Ohio State (9-1, 19)
19. Purdue (5-3, 20)
20. San Diego State (8-0, 21)
21. Georgia Tech (6-1, 24)
22. Utah (6-1, NR)
23. Arkansas (6-4, NR)
24. Texas (4-4, 18)
25. Michigan (5-4, 22)
Next: Oklahoma State, Stanford, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Georgetown
Dropped Out: Georgetown (23), Oklahoma State (25)