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Comey · 05-07-2020, 08:14 PM

JBL | The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season (Day 109): Your Down The Stretch Handicapping Guide

We're down to the final two weeks of the regular season.

Each team has a few games remaining, at most. And races are tight everywhere. We figured we would give you a rundown of where every race sits, and who sits where in them.

A-10: St. Joe's (20-4, 13-2) sits a game ahead of Dayton (18-7, 12-3), 1.5 up on Davidson (15-9, 11-3), and two up on Richmond (17-8, 11-4). Rhode Island (18-6, 10-5) and UMass (17-7, 10-5) also figure to factor into the race. St. Joe's has a favorite schedule, facing none of the teams involved. Their toughest opponent left is at Fordham, on Day 113. Dayton hosts Davidson on 120 and RIchmond on Day 123. Davidson has a home game against Rhode Island (114), then goes to Umass (117).

Pick: St. Joe's. They have a game in hand and the easiest schedule by far. Dayton is our pick to finish second, and Richmond is likely to leapfrog Davidson into third.

A-Sun: Florida Gulf Coast (14-10, 12-2) leads NJIT (13-11) by a game. The two teams split over the regular season. FGCU's toughest game left is at North Alabama, who was tied for first, but has faltered dramatically during the season. NJIT has Jacksonville left, but they beat them 70-51 on the road.

Pick: FGCU. Both teams hold serve and FGCU holds their game lead.

AAC: Cincinnati (20-8, 16-1) is a half-game up on Memphis (22-5, 15-1); both teams have one loss in the conference. The big game remaining, of course, is on 115, when Cincinnati visits Memphis. Memphis has an extra game after, going to Houston and South Florida. The Houston game is one that should concern Memphis. However, if they beat CIncinnati, it won't matter; Memphis won at Cincinnati earlier this year. Cincinnati does have third-place East Carolina on the schedule, a game that shouldn't be overlooked as a trap game before the Memphis one.

Pick: Memphis to beat Cincinnati, essentially giving them a two-game lead (the one game lead + the tiebreaker). Even if they lose at Houston, or at South Florida, it wouldn't matter. Now, if they do beat Memphis and lose at Houston, that South Florida game will come with a lot of fanfare and pressure.

ACC: Duke (23-4, 13-2) holds a game lead over Virginia (22-4), and a two-game lead on North Carolina (21-6, 11-4). They have swept Virginia and just beat the Tar Heels, and only have a trip to Pittsburgh as anyone really challenging left on the schedule. Virginia still has trips to Syracuse and UNC; the Tar Heels host Syracuse and Virginia, and have road games at Wake and Va Tech.

Pick: Duke, UNC, Virginia. We don't think NC State (20-5, 9-5) or Boston College (17-7, 8-5) can catch Virginia for third, but it isn't out of the realm of possibility. BC goes to NC State, but NC State still has games at Pitt and Syracuse left.

AEC: Hartford (14-7, 10-2) holds a 2.5 game lead over UMBC (11-11, 7-4) and Binghamton (9-12, 7-7). They just lost to UMBC, though that may be too little, too late. They host Binghamton on 117. UMBC goes to Binghamton on 121.

Pick: Hartford, UMBC, Binghamton. Expect the Hawks to get it done rather easily.

Big 12: Kansas (21-4, 12-1) leads Iowa State (18-6, 10-3) by two full games. The two split earlier this year. Kansas State (16-9, 9-4) and Oklahoma (16-8, 9-4) are tied for third, Kansas has trips to Kansas State and Oklahoma left, while Iowa State has games at OK State and Kansas State, and a visit from Oklahoma left.

Pick: Iowa State will lose at Kansas State, we think, cementing the race for Kansas to win. We also think Kansas State can take the second seed from Iowa State. So, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State is our pick.

Big East: It's a three-team race between UConn (25-4, 15-2), Villanova (20-7, 13-4) and Georgetown (19-8, 12-4). We say a three-team race because UConn has visits to Georgetown and Villanova to end the season. The Huskies should beat Providence, but a visit from fourth-place Creighton (18-9, 11-5), who already has a win over UConn, should prove to be the loveliest of trap games. Georgetown has games at Seton Hall, DePaul, and Marquette left; that last one is real problematic for the Hoyas. Villanova has a tricky visit to Seton Hall left, but if they get past that, they'll likely play UConn for the conference title.

Pick: Connecticut, Villanova, Georgetown. We think UConn will win one of those two last games. We also think Georgetown will lose at Marquette. So, this is how we think the order shall look. Creighton could get the 3-seed, so that's still in play.

Big Sky: Idaho (16-11, 14-3) holds a 2.5 game lead on Montana State (16-8, 11-5). The Vandals do have a visit to the Bobcats left (115). The Bobcats have a game at Northern Arizona (16-11, 9-7) to end the season, which makes this road too difficult to travel.

Pick: Idaho, Montana State, Northern Arizona. Weber State could factor in, but we think it will end like this.

Big South: Gardner-Webb (17-9, 13-2) holds a lead over UNC-Ashville (16-11, 12-4). Winthrop (15-12, 11-5) is right behind UNC-Ashville. The fun here is that the Runnin' Bulldogs still have to go to Winhrop and UNC-Ashville, so nothing is quite decided here. Gardner-Webb still has five games left. Neither the non-running Bulldogs nor the Eagles have a particularly tough schedule.

Pick: You know, we're going to stick with Gardner-Webb here, due to the two-game lead in the loss column. We'll keep it in the order it is right now. It's not interestig, sure, but we're going for accuracy.

Big Ten: Indiana (23-2, 13-1) has a 1.5 game lead on Illinois (22-4, 12-3) and Maryland (19-6, 12-3). Ohio State (20-6, 10-4 isn't mathematically eliminated, but they might as well be. The Hoosiers stil have six games left, though they get the toughest of that schedule (Iowa, Maryland) at home. They could lose to Penn State, Minnesota, and Michigan, but none of them are consistent enough to make that anything but a fluke.

The key for the Hoosiers is that Illinois travels to Indiana on 121. That could eliminate the Fightin Illini. Maryland has the toughest schedule, going to Iowa, then getting Michigan, Ohio State, and Illinois at home, before traveling to Indiana. That won't be enough for a team like Purdue or Michigan State (tied for fifth, amazingly) to move up; both teams (and Michigan) have six losses in-conference.

Pick: Indiana, Illinois, Maryland. The Terrapins should clinch at least the third seed by beating Ohio State. But we think this will stay the way it has been for some time now.

BIg West: Long Beach State (19-7, 13-2) leads UC Santa Barbara (17-10, 12-4) and UC Irvine (15-10, 12-4) by a game and a half. The 49ers, who just suffered an unfathomable loss at Cal Poly, steer clear of all of those teams. UCSB goes to UCI though, on 120. And UCSB has to go to Hawaii. UCI gets three home games to end the year.

Pick: Long Beach State, UC-Irvine, UCSB. The UCSB trip to UCI should hand things over to Irvine.

Colonial: Drexel (21-4, 12-2) leads Hofstra (16-8, 11-3) by a game, and Northeastern (15-8, 10-4) by two. Drexel has to visit The Royalty (William & Mary) on 124, but that's really it for them. Hofstra has to visit Towson on 112. A loss there is likely, and could doom the Pride. The Huskies also visit The Royalty, but have an easy schedule otherwise.

Pick: Drexel, Hofstra, Northeastern. It's possible all three teams lose a game down the stretch. We think Drexel will run the table, but the other two could easily drop a game. Hofstra's game lead over Northeastern is huge in this regard.

CUSA: Charlotte (19-5, 14-1) has dominated conference play all season long. They sit two games up on Southern Miss (16-8, 12-3). North Texas (13-11, 10-5) and Louisiana Tech (12-13, 10-5) are tied for third. Southern Miss travels to Charlotte on 119, which should finish things off for the top seed in Charlotte's favor. (Their only loss in conference is to Rice.) They do travel to La Tech and North Texas, but we don't think either result in a loss.

Pick: Charlotte, Southern Miss, North Texas. There isn't anything here to change the status quo.

Horizon: Illinois-Chicago (17-7, 12-1) holds a two-game lead on Milwaukee (13-11, 10-3), and a sizeable advantage over Oakland (13-9, 8-5). The kicker here is that the Flames (a poor choice for a name...really, too soon, Illinois-Chicago) hosts Milwaukee on 117. They do travel to Oakland on 113, but we don't buy that one. The...sigh, Flames...also have a score to settle with the Panthers, who handed them their only conference loss, a 77-46 dismantling back on 81.

Pick: Illinois-Chicago, Milwaukee, Oakland. Status quo is as status quo does.

Ivy: Oh man. There is a three-way tie for first between Cornell (13-7, 9-2), Harvard (14-8, 9-2) and Penn (14-8, 9-2). Let's hash this one out:

Cornell: 1-1 vs Harvard, 0-1 vs Penn (host on 111)
Harvard: 1-1 vs Cornell, 1-1 vs Penn (Harvard's 84-83 W on 106 is huge right now)
Penn: 1-1 vs Cornell, 1-0 vs Penn (visit on 111)

Yeah, that got us nowhere.

The obvious fix here is that Penn beat Cornell. But let's say that doesn't happen. Then what?

Well, here's a view:

Harvard travels to fourth-place Princeton. That's not a guaranteed win. Harvard won 68-65 at home back on 86. Penn faces Yale and Brown, which are two wins. Cornell has road games at Columbia and Dartmouth, which should be wins.

If Cornell beats Penn, that elimates the Quakers. If Penn beats Cornell, that elimates Big Red. Harvard, in the meantime, has their own issues in traveling to Princeton. So, in full Ivy League form, let's play the logic card.

Pick: Cornell, Harvard, Penn. Cornell beats Penn, Harvard loses to Princeton. As far as the tiebreak between Harvard and Penn, we don't know. But we'll go with it this way.

MAAC: Fairfield (20-6, 14-2) continues to enjoy their greatest run of success in program history, and hold a half-game lead on Niagara (17-9, 13-2), who visits the Stags on 111. Fairfield gets third place Iona (14-10, 9-6) before traveling to Marist and Saint Peters. Fairfield already has a win over Niagara, which makes another loss for the Purple Eagles the death knell for the conference title. Niagara has Manhattan and Siena at home, and visits to Monmouth and Rider. None are considered even remote loss possibilities.

Pick: Fairfield, Niagara, Iona. Fairfield beats Niagara on Senior Night, and takes their second straight regular season title.

MAC: Kent State (19-5, 11-4) holds a half-game lead on Akron (15-10, 11-5) The Golden Flashes have five games left, but their toughest, against disappointing Buffalo (9-7 in conference) is at home. Due to an unbalanced schedule, Akron and Kent State have only played once, a 68-62 Kent State win. The Zips have to travel to Buffalo, which should be a loss if Buffalo plays to its ability.

Pick: Kent State, Akron, Eastern Michigan. The evidence presented is enough.

MEAC: Morgan State (16-8, 12-3) holds a two-game lead on Maryland-Eastern Shore (14-11, 105) and South Carolina tate (13-12, 10-5). The Bears play both, the former on the road, the latter at home. They close with a road game at North Carolina Central, which is a tricky trap game.. The Hawks also have to travel to NC Central, and they host SC State. The Bulldogs are on the road against MES and Morgan State, which should prove too much for them.

Pick: Morgan State, MES, SC State. The conference with the long school names holds the status quo. Seems like there's a theme here.

Missouri Valley. This is a two-horse race between Loyola-Chicago (17-6, 12-1) and Illinois State (18-4, 11-2). Valpo (16-8, 7-6) has been incredibly disappointing. The Ramblers travel to Illinois State on 117. They already own an 82-81 win over the Redbirds, back on 81. They also get Valpo at home. The Redbirds have Valpo at home, too. There is the one issue of a trip to Northern Iowa on 113, in between the two key games. The Redbirds lost to Missouri State on the road earlier this year, a loss that should never have happened.

Pick: If the two teams tie, the tiebreaker is RPI+SOS. Loyola Chicago holds a sizeable advantage here (59th vs 90th). So, we go with the Ramblers.

Mountain West: New Mexico (19-6, 14-1) holds an improbable lead over UNLV (21-5, 13-2) and San Diego State (13-3). Wyoming (19-5, 12-3) makes for a bunched quartet. The Lobos lost their first conference loss on 107. The Lobos still have a trip to UNLV, and a home date with Wyoming. The Runnin Rebels host Wyoming. SDSU has three games at home, and a cupcake rest of the schedule. Wyoming has the most difficult slate left. New Mexico does have the win over UNLV already, so another win would give them the regular season title. A loss would swing it UNLV's way, due to RPI+SOS.

Pick: UNLV will beat New Mexico and take the conference. New Mexico will finish second, SDSU third, and Wyoming fourth.

NEC: Bryant (19-8, 13-3) holds a comfortable two-game lead on Mount St. Marys (15-9, 10-5) and St. Francis-NY (15-9, 10-5). The Bulldogs host St. Francis on 120, which should give The Mount second place.

Pick: Bryant, Mount St. Mary's, St. Francis-NY. St. Francis losing five of their last six really torpedoed their season.

OVC: Murray State (21-6, 16-1) has already clinched the regular season title. Morehead State (15-12, 11-6) and Tennessee-Martin (13-13, 11-6) are battling for second.

Pac-12: Washington (22-5, 13-3) leads USC (22-5, 12-4) and Colorado (22-5, 12-4) by a game. Utah (19-7, 11-5) is two back, and Stanford (20-8, 11-6) is a half-game behind them. This has been maybe the most fun conference in the nation. And yet, through it all, Washington has led the whole way.

The Huskies have two big games, Utah at home, and on the road at USC. The Huskies won the first meeting between the two, 86-82. They also hold a somewhat slim RPI+SOS tiebreaker. But a USC win could change that.

The Trojans, meanwhile, have Arizona and UCLA on the road, and finish with Washington State. That's not an easy slate, and USC won't go undefeated in that stretch. It needs to beat Washington to have a shot.

Colorado, meanwhile, has Stanford and Arizona, but at home. They face Arizona State on the road. Should USC beat Washington, Colorado has swept the Huskies. So, Colorado will be huge Trojan fans when those two teams meet.

Pick: Colorado, Washington, USC. We think the Buffaloes win out, while Washington loses to USC. Utah has to go to Washington on 115, which will hurt their chances. Even if USC drops two, they have the RPI+SOS tiebreaker, easily.

Patriot: Bucknell, wow...what a story. The Bison (19-6, 12-2) have dealt with injuries all year, and yet, they are tied with Lafayette (18-7, 12-2). The Bison have been so good, they got an at-large bid in Bracketology III, Brackets in New York. The two teams split during the regular season, and neither has a difficult game left. Of course, in the Patriot, any game can be difficult.

Pick: Bucknell, Lafayette, Navy. RPI+SOS is with the Bison. Expect them to get maybe the unlikeliest conference title of the year.

SEC: Kentucky (25-1, 14-1) leads Missouri (22-4, 13-2) and Florida (18-6, 11-3). The Gators, by the way, can say they've beaten both teams. Kentucky has a difficult schedule down the stretch, as they go to LSU (more on them in a minute), then host Arkansas and Florida, and close at Missouri. That's as tough a closing schedule as anyone has in the nation.

The Tigers have trips to A&M and Vandy, a home game against Georgia, and a visit to Knoxville, before that UK game. It's an easier slate, but that Tennessee game sticks out as trouble. If Missouri is denied the title, we think it'll be because they lose that game.

Florida needs help after dropping two of their last three (before beating Mizzou). They have six games, including the trip to Kentucky. That, alone, should be enough to see them to second or third. But all of their other games are very winnable.

LSU (18-6, 10-3), as under-the-radar as anyone this season, have seven games left in a backloaded slate. They go to Georgia and Tennessee, and host Kentucky...but the rest are winnable. There is a path for them to win the conference regular season title. That said, due to an unbalanced schedule, they faced Missouri only once, and that was a loss. They have not faced Kentucky yet this season, either. So, they might consider themselves quite fortunate.

Pick: Missouri, Kentucky, Florida. We think the TIgers will clip Kentucky right at the end. Due to their RPI+SOS bump (Mizzou is 3rd in RPI+SOS, Kentucky is 12th), we think the TIgers can still, and will, take the conference.

Southern: East TN State (15-9, 10-3) leads three teams by two games. We think that will hold. Moving on.

Southland: Northwestern State (21-6, 15-1) leads Stephen F Austin (18-5, 13-2) in a two-horse race. The two teams face each other on the final day of the regular season. Northwestern State was running the table, but a strange loss at Incarnate Word messed that all up. This is another unbalanced schedule situation, as the two teams have yet to face each other. If the Demons lose to the Lumberjacks, that will given SFA the conference. Funny how that plays out.

PIck: Stephen F. Austin, Northwestern State, Houston Baptist. SFA performs an exorcism, and eradicates the Demons from the top of the conference.

Summit: Texas State (19-7, 12-4) holds a 2.5 game lead on Arkansas State (14-10, 9-6). The two teams face off at Texas State on 113. That should finish things off.

Pick: Texas State, Arkansas State, Appalachian State. Obviously, we think Texas State is winning that game.

SWAC: Arkansas Pine-Bluff (17-6, 11-3) holds a two-game lead on Jackson State (13-10, 9-5) and Southern (12-12, 9-5). The Golden lions host Jackson State on 116. They own a 67-60 win already.

Pick: Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Southern, Jackson State. We'll take the Golden Lions to win that game, and win the conference.

WAC: Utah Valley (16-7, 12-2) leads three teams by two games. One of which is a Kansas City team that is 10-14, 10-4 in the conference. We don't know what to think of that. Now, the Wolverines travel to Seattle, the biggest threat to the conference title, on 116. They own a win over Seattle already. Kansas City comes to town on 112. The Roos beat them 64-59 earlier in the season. Grand Canyon, the other team in this equation, gets KC and Seattle too, the latter on the road.

Pick: Utah Valley, Grand Caynon, Seattle. We think the Antelopes will beat Seattle, so we're giving them the nod for the 2-seed.

WCC: Gonzaga (21-3, 12-1) holds a two-game edge on St. Mary's (16-7, 10-3) and Pepperdine (15-9, 10-3). San Diego (16-8, 8-5) is fourth. The Toreros visit the Zags on 109. The Zags also get a visit from Pepperdine on 121. Saint Marys, who split with the Zags this season, go to Pepperdine on 117.

Pick: Gonzaga, Saint Marys, Pepperdine. We think there's too much separation between the teams for there to be much movement.

The Quad 25, 2028 Seaosn
Day 109

1. Indiana (23-2, 1)
2. Kentucky (25-1, 2)
3. Duke (23-4, 3)
4. Kansas (21-4, 6)
5. Connecticut (25-4, 7)
6. Missouri (22-4, 5)
7. Illinois (22-4, 8)
8. Virginia (22-4, 9)
9. North Carolina (21-6, 4)
10. Colorado (22-5, 12)
11. Southern Cal (22-5, 10)
12. Washington (22-5, 11)
13. NC State (20-5, 13)
14. Marland (19-6, 14)
15. Florida (18-6, 17)
16. Villanova (20-7, 15)
17. New Mexico (19-6, 16)
18. Memphis (22-5, 19)
19. Utah (19-7, 18)
20. Stanford (20-8, 22)
21. Gonzaga (21-3, 21)
22. Iowa State (18-6, 23)
23. San Diego State (24-3, 24)
24. Ohio State (20-6, 20)
25. UNLV (21-5, 25)
Next: Pitt, Georgetown, Dayton, Bucknell, Drexel
Dropped Out: None

05-07-2020, 08:14 PM	#25
Comey College Starter Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: CT via PA via CA via PA	The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season (Day 109): Your Down The Stretch Handicapping Guide JBL \| The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season (Day 109): Your Down The Stretch Handicapping Guide We're down to the final two weeks of the regular season. Each team has a few games remaining, at most. And races are tight everywhere. We figured we would give you a rundown of where every race sits, and who sits where in them. A-10: St. Joe's (20-4, 13-2) sits a game ahead of Dayton (18-7, 12-3), 1.5 up on Davidson (15-9, 11-3), and two up on Richmond (17-8, 11-4). Rhode Island (18-6, 10-5) and UMass (17-7, 10-5) also figure to factor into the race. St. Joe's has a favorite schedule, facing none of the teams involved. Their toughest opponent left is at Fordham, on Day 113. Dayton hosts Davidson on 120 and RIchmond on Day 123. Davidson has a home game against Rhode Island (114), then goes to Umass (117). Pick: St. Joe's. They have a game in hand and the easiest schedule by far. Dayton is our pick to finish second, and Richmond is likely to leapfrog Davidson into third. A-Sun: Florida Gulf Coast (14-10, 12-2) leads NJIT (13-11) by a game. The two teams split over the regular season. FGCU's toughest game left is at North Alabama, who was tied for first, but has faltered dramatically during the season. NJIT has Jacksonville left, but they beat them 70-51 on the road. Pick: FGCU. Both teams hold serve and FGCU holds their game lead. AAC: Cincinnati (20-8, 16-1) is a half-game up on Memphis (22-5, 15-1); both teams have one loss in the conference. The big game remaining, of course, is on 115, when Cincinnati visits Memphis. Memphis has an extra game after, going to Houston and South Florida. The Houston game is one that should concern Memphis. However, if they beat CIncinnati, it won't matter; Memphis won at Cincinnati earlier this year. Cincinnati does have third-place East Carolina on the schedule, a game that shouldn't be overlooked as a trap game before the Memphis one. Pick: Memphis to beat Cincinnati, essentially giving them a two-game lead (the one game lead + the tiebreaker). Even if they lose at Houston, or at South Florida, it wouldn't matter. Now, if they do beat Memphis and lose at Houston, that South Florida game will come with a lot of fanfare and pressure. ACC: Duke (23-4, 13-2) holds a game lead over Virginia (22-4), and a two-game lead on North Carolina (21-6, 11-4). They have swept Virginia and just beat the Tar Heels, and only have a trip to Pittsburgh as anyone really challenging left on the schedule. Virginia still has trips to Syracuse and UNC; the Tar Heels host Syracuse and Virginia, and have road games at Wake and Va Tech. Pick: Duke, UNC, Virginia. We don't think NC State (20-5, 9-5) or Boston College (17-7, 8-5) can catch Virginia for third, but it isn't out of the realm of possibility. BC goes to NC State, but NC State still has games at Pitt and Syracuse left. AEC: Hartford (14-7, 10-2) holds a 2.5 game lead over UMBC (11-11, 7-4) and Binghamton (9-12, 7-7). They just lost to UMBC, though that may be too little, too late. They host Binghamton on 117. UMBC goes to Binghamton on 121. Pick: Hartford, UMBC, Binghamton. Expect the Hawks to get it done rather easily. Big 12: Kansas (21-4, 12-1) leads Iowa State (18-6, 10-3) by two full games. The two split earlier this year. Kansas State (16-9, 9-4) and Oklahoma (16-8, 9-4) are tied for third, Kansas has trips to Kansas State and Oklahoma left, while Iowa State has games at OK State and Kansas State, and a visit from Oklahoma left. Pick: Iowa State will lose at Kansas State, we think, cementing the race for Kansas to win. We also think Kansas State can take the second seed from Iowa State. So, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State is our pick. Big East: It's a three-team race between UConn (25-4, 15-2), Villanova (20-7, 13-4) and Georgetown (19-8, 12-4). We say a three-team race because UConn has visits to Georgetown and Villanova to end the season. The Huskies should beat Providence, but a visit from fourth-place Creighton (18-9, 11-5), who already has a win over UConn, should prove to be the loveliest of trap games. Georgetown has games at Seton Hall, DePaul, and Marquette left; that last one is real problematic for the Hoyas. Villanova has a tricky visit to Seton Hall left, but if they get past that, they'll likely play UConn for the conference title. Pick: Connecticut, Villanova, Georgetown. We think UConn will win one of those two last games. We also think Georgetown will lose at Marquette. So, this is how we think the order shall look. Creighton could get the 3-seed, so that's still in play. Big Sky: Idaho (16-11, 14-3) holds a 2.5 game lead on Montana State (16-8, 11-5). The Vandals do have a visit to the Bobcats left (115). The Bobcats have a game at Northern Arizona (16-11, 9-7) to end the season, which makes this road too difficult to travel. Pick: Idaho, Montana State, Northern Arizona. Weber State could factor in, but we think it will end like this. Big South: Gardner-Webb (17-9, 13-2) holds a lead over UNC-Ashville (16-11, 12-4). Winthrop (15-12, 11-5) is right behind UNC-Ashville. The fun here is that the Runnin' Bulldogs still have to go to Winhrop and UNC-Ashville, so nothing is quite decided here. Gardner-Webb still has five games left. Neither the non-running Bulldogs nor the Eagles have a particularly tough schedule. Pick: You know, we're going to stick with Gardner-Webb here, due to the two-game lead in the loss column. We'll keep it in the order it is right now. It's not interestig, sure, but we're going for accuracy. Big Ten: Indiana (23-2, 13-1) has a 1.5 game lead on Illinois (22-4, 12-3) and Maryland (19-6, 12-3). Ohio State (20-6, 10-4 isn't mathematically eliminated, but they might as well be. The Hoosiers stil have six games left, though they get the toughest of that schedule (Iowa, Maryland) at home. They could lose to Penn State, Minnesota, and Michigan, but none of them are consistent enough to make that anything but a fluke. The key for the Hoosiers is that Illinois travels to Indiana on 121. That could eliminate the Fightin Illini. Maryland has the toughest schedule, going to Iowa, then getting Michigan, Ohio State, and Illinois at home, before traveling to Indiana. That won't be enough for a team like Purdue or Michigan State (tied for fifth, amazingly) to move up; both teams (and Michigan) have six losses in-conference. Pick: Indiana, Illinois, Maryland. The Terrapins should clinch at least the third seed by beating Ohio State. But we think this will stay the way it has been for some time now. BIg West: Long Beach State (19-7, 13-2) leads UC Santa Barbara (17-10, 12-4) and UC Irvine (15-10, 12-4) by a game and a half. The 49ers, who just suffered an unfathomable loss at Cal Poly, steer clear of all of those teams. UCSB goes to UCI though, on 120. And UCSB has to go to Hawaii. UCI gets three home games to end the year. Pick: Long Beach State, UC-Irvine, UCSB. The UCSB trip to UCI should hand things over to Irvine. Colonial: Drexel (21-4, 12-2) leads Hofstra (16-8, 11-3) by a game, and Northeastern (15-8, 10-4) by two. Drexel has to visit The Royalty (William & Mary) on 124, but that's really it for them. Hofstra has to visit Towson on 112. A loss there is likely, and could doom the Pride. The Huskies also visit The Royalty, but have an easy schedule otherwise. Pick: Drexel, Hofstra, Northeastern. It's possible all three teams lose a game down the stretch. We think Drexel will run the table, but the other two could easily drop a game. Hofstra's game lead over Northeastern is huge in this regard. CUSA: Charlotte (19-5, 14-1) has dominated conference play all season long. They sit two games up on Southern Miss (16-8, 12-3). North Texas (13-11, 10-5) and Louisiana Tech (12-13, 10-5) are tied for third. Southern Miss travels to Charlotte on 119, which should finish things off for the top seed in Charlotte's favor. (Their only loss in conference is to Rice.) They do travel to La Tech and North Texas, but we don't think either result in a loss. Pick: Charlotte, Southern Miss, North Texas. There isn't anything here to change the status quo. Horizon: Illinois-Chicago (17-7, 12-1) holds a two-game lead on Milwaukee (13-11, 10-3), and a sizeable advantage over Oakland (13-9, 8-5). The kicker here is that the Flames (a poor choice for a name...really, too soon, Illinois-Chicago) hosts Milwaukee on 117. They do travel to Oakland on 113, but we don't buy that one. The...sigh, Flames...also have a score to settle with the Panthers, who handed them their only conference loss, a 77-46 dismantling back on 81. Pick: Illinois-Chicago, Milwaukee, Oakland. Status quo is as status quo does. Ivy: Oh man. There is a three-way tie for first between Cornell (13-7, 9-2), Harvard (14-8, 9-2) and Penn (14-8, 9-2). Let's hash this one out: Cornell: 1-1 vs Harvard, 0-1 vs Penn (host on 111) Harvard: 1-1 vs Cornell, 1-1 vs Penn (Harvard's 84-83 W on 106 is huge right now) Penn: 1-1 vs Cornell, 1-0 vs Penn (visit on 111) Yeah, that got us nowhere. The obvious fix here is that Penn beat Cornell. But let's say that doesn't happen. Then what? Well, here's a view: Harvard travels to fourth-place Princeton. That's not a guaranteed win. Harvard won 68-65 at home back on 86. Penn faces Yale and Brown, which are two wins. Cornell has road games at Columbia and Dartmouth, which should be wins. If Cornell beats Penn, that elimates the Quakers. If Penn beats Cornell, that elimates Big Red. Harvard, in the meantime, has their own issues in traveling to Princeton. So, in full Ivy League form, let's play the logic card. Pick: Cornell, Harvard, Penn. Cornell beats Penn, Harvard loses to Princeton. As far as the tiebreak between Harvard and Penn, we don't know. But we'll go with it this way. MAAC: Fairfield (20-6, 14-2) continues to enjoy their greatest run of success in program history, and hold a half-game lead on Niagara (17-9, 13-2), who visits the Stags on 111. Fairfield gets third place Iona (14-10, 9-6) before traveling to Marist and Saint Peters. Fairfield already has a win over Niagara, which makes another loss for the Purple Eagles the death knell for the conference title. Niagara has Manhattan and Siena at home, and visits to Monmouth and Rider. None are considered even remote loss possibilities. Pick: Fairfield, Niagara, Iona. Fairfield beats Niagara on Senior Night, and takes their second straight regular season title. MAC: Kent State (19-5, 11-4) holds a half-game lead on Akron (15-10, 11-5) The Golden Flashes have five games left, but their toughest, against disappointing Buffalo (9-7 in conference) is at home. Due to an unbalanced schedule, Akron and Kent State have only played once, a 68-62 Kent State win. The Zips have to travel to Buffalo, which should be a loss if Buffalo plays to its ability. Pick: Kent State, Akron, Eastern Michigan. The evidence presented is enough. MEAC: Morgan State (16-8, 12-3) holds a two-game lead on Maryland-Eastern Shore (14-11, 105) and South Carolina tate (13-12, 10-5). The Bears play both, the former on the road, the latter at home. They close with a road game at North Carolina Central, which is a tricky trap game.. The Hawks also have to travel to NC Central, and they host SC State. The Bulldogs are on the road against MES and Morgan State, which should prove too much for them. Pick: Morgan State, MES, SC State. The conference with the long school names holds the status quo. Seems like there's a theme here. Missouri Valley. This is a two-horse race between Loyola-Chicago (17-6, 12-1) and Illinois State (18-4, 11-2). Valpo (16-8, 7-6) has been incredibly disappointing. The Ramblers travel to Illinois State on 117. They already own an 82-81 win over the Redbirds, back on 81. They also get Valpo at home. The Redbirds have Valpo at home, too. There is the one issue of a trip to Northern Iowa on 113, in between the two key games. The Redbirds lost to Missouri State on the road earlier this year, a loss that should never have happened. Pick: If the two teams tie, the tiebreaker is RPI+SOS. Loyola Chicago holds a sizeable advantage here (59th vs 90th). So, we go with the Ramblers. Mountain West: New Mexico (19-6, 14-1) holds an improbable lead over UNLV (21-5, 13-2) and San Diego State (13-3). Wyoming (19-5, 12-3) makes for a bunched quartet. The Lobos lost their first conference loss on 107. The Lobos still have a trip to UNLV, and a home date with Wyoming. The Runnin Rebels host Wyoming. SDSU has three games at home, and a cupcake rest of the schedule. Wyoming has the most difficult slate left. New Mexico does have the win over UNLV already, so another win would give them the regular season title. A loss would swing it UNLV's way, due to RPI+SOS. Pick: UNLV will beat New Mexico and take the conference. New Mexico will finish second, SDSU third, and Wyoming fourth. NEC: Bryant (19-8, 13-3) holds a comfortable two-game lead on Mount St. Marys (15-9, 10-5) and St. Francis-NY (15-9, 10-5). The Bulldogs host St. Francis on 120, which should give The Mount second place. Pick: Bryant, Mount St. Mary's, St. Francis-NY. St. Francis losing five of their last six really torpedoed their season. OVC: Murray State (21-6, 16-1) has already clinched the regular season title. Morehead State (15-12, 11-6) and Tennessee-Martin (13-13, 11-6) are battling for second. Pac-12: Washington (22-5, 13-3) leads USC (22-5, 12-4) and Colorado (22-5, 12-4) by a game. Utah (19-7, 11-5) is two back, and Stanford (20-8, 11-6) is a half-game behind them. This has been maybe the most fun conference in the nation. And yet, through it all, Washington has led the whole way. The Huskies have two big games, Utah at home, and on the road at USC. The Huskies won the first meeting between the two, 86-82. They also hold a somewhat slim RPI+SOS tiebreaker. But a USC win could change that. The Trojans, meanwhile, have Arizona and UCLA on the road, and finish with Washington State. That's not an easy slate, and USC won't go undefeated in that stretch. It needs to beat Washington to have a shot. Colorado, meanwhile, has Stanford and Arizona, but at home. They face Arizona State on the road. Should USC beat Washington, Colorado has swept the Huskies. So, Colorado will be huge Trojan fans when those two teams meet. Pick: Colorado, Washington, USC. We think the Buffaloes win out, while Washington loses to USC. Utah has to go to Washington on 115, which will hurt their chances. Even if USC drops two, they have the RPI+SOS tiebreaker, easily. Patriot: Bucknell, wow...what a story. The Bison (19-6, 12-2) have dealt with injuries all year, and yet, they are tied with Lafayette (18-7, 12-2). The Bison have been so good, they got an at-large bid in Bracketology III, Brackets in New York. The two teams split during the regular season, and neither has a difficult game left. Of course, in the Patriot, any game can be difficult. Pick: Bucknell, Lafayette, Navy. RPI+SOS is with the Bison. Expect them to get maybe the unlikeliest conference title of the year. SEC: Kentucky (25-1, 14-1) leads Missouri (22-4, 13-2) and Florida (18-6, 11-3). The Gators, by the way, can say they've beaten both teams. Kentucky has a difficult schedule down the stretch, as they go to LSU (more on them in a minute), then host Arkansas and Florida, and close at Missouri. That's as tough a closing schedule as anyone has in the nation. The Tigers have trips to A&M and Vandy, a home game against Georgia, and a visit to Knoxville, before that UK game. It's an easier slate, but that Tennessee game sticks out as trouble. If Missouri is denied the title, we think it'll be because they lose that game. Florida needs help after dropping two of their last three (before beating Mizzou). They have six games, including the trip to Kentucky. That, alone, should be enough to see them to second or third. But all of their other games are very winnable. LSU (18-6, 10-3), as under-the-radar as anyone this season, have seven games left in a backloaded slate. They go to Georgia and Tennessee, and host Kentucky...but the rest are winnable. There is a path for them to win the conference regular season title. That said, due to an unbalanced schedule, they faced Missouri only once, and that was a loss. They have not faced Kentucky yet this season, either. So, they might consider themselves quite fortunate. Pick: Missouri, Kentucky, Florida. We think the TIgers will clip Kentucky right at the end. Due to their RPI+SOS bump (Mizzou is 3rd in RPI+SOS, Kentucky is 12th), we think the TIgers can still, and will, take the conference. Southern: East TN State (15-9, 10-3) leads three teams by two games. We think that will hold. Moving on. Southland: Northwestern State (21-6, 15-1) leads Stephen F Austin (18-5, 13-2) in a two-horse race. The two teams face each other on the final day of the regular season. Northwestern State was running the table, but a strange loss at Incarnate Word messed that all up. This is another unbalanced schedule situation, as the two teams have yet to face each other. If the Demons lose to the Lumberjacks, that will given SFA the conference. Funny how that plays out. PIck: Stephen F. Austin, Northwestern State, Houston Baptist. SFA performs an exorcism, and eradicates the Demons from the top of the conference. Summit: Texas State (19-7, 12-4) holds a 2.5 game lead on Arkansas State (14-10, 9-6). The two teams face off at Texas State on 113. That should finish things off. Pick: Texas State, Arkansas State, Appalachian State. Obviously, we think Texas State is winning that game. SWAC: Arkansas Pine-Bluff (17-6, 11-3) holds a two-game lead on Jackson State (13-10, 9-5) and Southern (12-12, 9-5). The Golden lions host Jackson State on 116. They own a 67-60 win already. Pick: Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Southern, Jackson State. We'll take the Golden Lions to win that game, and win the conference. WAC: Utah Valley (16-7, 12-2) leads three teams by two games. One of which is a Kansas City team that is 10-14, 10-4 in the conference. We don't know what to think of that. Now, the Wolverines travel to Seattle, the biggest threat to the conference title, on 116. They own a win over Seattle already. Kansas City comes to town on 112. The Roos beat them 64-59 earlier in the season. Grand Canyon, the other team in this equation, gets KC and Seattle too, the latter on the road. Pick: Utah Valley, Grand Caynon, Seattle. We think the Antelopes will beat Seattle, so we're giving them the nod for the 2-seed. WCC: Gonzaga (21-3, 12-1) holds a two-game edge on St. Mary's (16-7, 10-3) and Pepperdine (15-9, 10-3). San Diego (16-8, 8-5) is fourth. The Toreros visit the Zags on 109. The Zags also get a visit from Pepperdine on 121. Saint Marys, who split with the Zags this season, go to Pepperdine on 117. Pick: Gonzaga, Saint Marys, Pepperdine. We think there's too much separation between the teams for there to be much movement. The Quad 25, 2028 Seaosn Day 109 1. Indiana (23-2, 1) 2. Kentucky (25-1, 2) 3. Duke (23-4, 3) 4. Kansas (21-4, 6) 5. Connecticut (25-4, 7) 6. Missouri (22-4, 5) 7. Illinois (22-4, 8) 8. Virginia (22-4, 9) 9. North Carolina (21-6, 4) 10. Colorado (22-5, 12) 11. Southern Cal (22-5, 10) 12. Washington (22-5, 11) 13. NC State (20-5, 13) 14. Marland (19-6, 14) 15. Florida (18-6, 17) 16. Villanova (20-7, 15) 17. New Mexico (19-6, 16) 18. Memphis (22-5, 19) 19. Utah (19-7, 18) 20. Stanford (20-8, 22) 21. Gonzaga (21-3, 21) 22. Iowa State (18-6, 23) 23. San Diego State (24-3, 24) 24. Ohio State (20-6, 20) 25. UNLV (21-5, 25) Next: Pitt, Georgetown, Dayton, Bucknell, Drexel Dropped Out: None __________________