JBL | The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season: YOUR CJBL Tournament Spectacular
Friends, readers, CJBL fans...
...the time has come.
It's touranment time.
We here at The Quad have been accumulating information all year just to get to this point. See, we plan to provide the perfect bracket for all of you.* We plan to be flawless in our selection and analysis.* And above all, we plan to be 100% correct.*
*These are all plans, and do not, in any way, shape or form, are not a binding agreement of perfection.
This might be our favorite column to write, for you see, this is our complete prediction piece. We will go through the entire tournament, and give you our take on what will happen. (As the tournament gets started, we'll give our record, and predict the tournament in real-time. So, really, you're getting double the predctions.)
We have 67 games to predict (with scores), so we won't beat waste anymore time.
First Four
Northwestern State 91, Illinois State 88: This is the best First Four game, and could go to overtime.
Syracuse 76, Bucknell 74. Bucknell has relied on its depth to get here. Syracuse simply has too much talent.
Cornell 72, NJIT 64. The Nerd Bowl sees the Dorks move on. Tarkus Frayer and Kam DeWitt make for a good battle.
Savannah State 71, VMI 69. Expect Zach Koch to go off for a big number...at least 25. But it'll be Chuck McKie who plays the hero late.
First Round
East Region
1) UConn 73, 16) Arkansas Pine-Bluff 53. UConn's defense is legit, and, of course, they have the combination of Jack Dawkins and Corban Vance.
9) Michigan 77, 8) Memphis 74. We like Chris Knight's surrounding cast more than DeShaun Irwin. The Wolverines are also peaking right now. We love how well they're playing.
12) UMass 66, 5) Drexel 64. The legend of Eddie Maye continues here...his fadeaway with less than two seconds left sends the Minutemen to the next round.
4) NC State 71, 13) Illinois-Chicago 60. We aren't the biggest NC State fans here. We feel like they could take the upset here. But they have the offense, and the best player on the floor in Justin Noel. They'll get through here.
3) Kentucky 74, 14) Bryant 69. As much as we want to believe in Roydell Self and the Bulldogs, they don't have an answer for Sam Meeking. Expect a big game out of the big name prospect, and the Wildcats get by.
6) Iowa State 69, 11) Syracuse 61. The Cylones are one of the best free-throw shooting teams in the nation, which is how they are able to pull through so many close games. Syracuse's inconsistency on offense should be the main culprit here, though.
7) Arizona 84, 10) Cincinnati 80. We really considered taking Isiah Gentry and the Bearcats here. In the end, we feel like the Bearcats' metrics are too inflated by a lack of competition in the AAC. The Wildcats are battle-tested, and, oh, right, Jeremy Sawvell.
2) Illinois 83, 15) Hartford 61. The Fighting Illini have way too much for the Hawks. Denzell Sparks and company should get out to a big lead, and roll to the easy win.
8) Michigan 69, 1) Connecticut 67. The Huskies' issue has been what happens if Jack Dawkins gets in foul trouble. If the Huskies have to rely on Alex Attia and Mikyle Simms to get the win, the Huskies are in trouble. The first top seed goes down here.
4) NC State 73, 12) UMass 66. The Wolfpack have enough offense to see themselves past UMass, though we are tempted to take the Minutemen into the Sweet SIxteen.
6) Iowa State 73, 3) Kentucky 62. This is a suprisingly easy win for the Cyclones, but truth be told, Kentucky hasn't looked that great down the stretch. We think they can and will be exposed by the Cyclones, who are peaking at the right time.
2) Illinois 89, 7) Arizona 87. This might be the best game of the second round. We like the Illini to get the win on the strength of the other Denzell, that being Medlock. The shooting guard, who has been up and down all year (38.7% from the field, 32.7% from 3) has a hot second half, leading Illinois to come back after a hot Arizona first half.
8) Michigan 78, 4) NC State 70. We just have a hunch. Call it that.
2) Illinois 79, 6) Iowa State 73. Niels Martin, an overlooked cog in the shadow of Denzell Sparks, is quite capable of standing out on his own. He'll do that here, going for 24 and leading Illinois past Jaylin Delzell, Eric Canty and a spirited Cyclones' squad.
2) Illinois 67, 8) Michigan 64. The dream ride for Michigan ends here. The FIghtin' Illini is able to suffocate Chris Knight and Porter Sealy. Needing a big game out of Devon Edmead, they get only 11 on 4-13 shooting.
West Region
1) Missouri 83, 16) Cornell 64. The Tigers have Brandon Dampier. Come on.
8) Purdue 82, 9) St. John's 79. The Boilermakers are 2nd in the nation in scoring, and sixth in efficiency. They are seventh in eFG%. They're also 352nd in the nation in oPPG and 348th in DRtg. St. John's is not an offensive team, though Lewis Rabey, Brody Alexander and company will very likely look like it in this one. The problem for the Johnnies is...well, they aren't really a defensive team, either. The inability to stop Purdue here, at least consistently, should be what sees Purdue on to the next round.
12) Lafayette 83, 5) Gonzaga 82. The Leopards are another solidly offensive team, one that did so in a tougher conference than you think. Kadeem Springer is a legit player on the wing, and he should give Gonzaga a major headache. Add in PG Craig Hamilton's abilities, and we have a real fun upset here.
3) Kansas 93, 14) Utah Valley 64. Sorry, Wolverines...Kansas has a death lineup, and we expect to see them employ it to their fullest death here. The best season in school history should not be sullied here, though. Jvonte Washburn and his teammates have a lot to be proud of.
6) Ohio State 65, 11) Creighton 63. The closeness in these two teams was pointed out and discussed on the 40ish Minutes of Hell tornament spectacular. Brett Yan is the only Bluejay who averages double figures a game, but the Bluejays get contributions from many players. Ohio State has a decided Big Three; if Creighton is able to neutralize Pat Cuadra, Dwayne Harrington and Gilbert Hart, they'll win. We think they can get one of them, but not the other two.
7) San Diego State 71, 10) PIttsburgh 69. Pitt's unexpected campaign leads to this unexpected game. The Aztecs' Isaac Capps will be tough competition for Drew Shepard, who was at one point a candidate for National POTY. Bo Dorn and Jonathan Garnett are fantastic supporting players for Pitt, but Jonathan Severado and Amadi Adekoya are too inconsistent. Armani Boozer, Darraja Mallers, Marquis Van Leer and the Aztecs move on.
2) Washington 73, 15) UC Santa Barbara 61. While the Huskies lost Daryl Mills, they still have JOsh Hardy, Matteo Devacchi, and Garrison Patten to soften the blow. Against UCSB, that will be plenty.
1) Missouri 94, 8) Purdue 91. This may be the most offensive game of the tournament. Dampier could go for 50. We feel like Purdue can hang with Mizzou, but their inability to get a stop when it matters, or a rebound against the nation's top rebounder, will doom the Boilermakers.
12) Lafayette 73, 4) Utah 71. We originally had this as 71-69 Utah. But we think Lafayette can play at a pace faster than Utah would like. With their offensive efficiency and shooting ability, they pose some real problems for Utah. Too much, obviously, by the looks of this prediction.
3) Kansas 89, 6) Ohio State 88. Another classic, in which Adam Fingelton's layup with under a second to go erases an expected upset just two seconds prior, after Patric Cuadra's three gives OSU a one-point advantage. In their celebration, that split second they take to realize that a timeout isn't called is all Kansas needs for Ashton Carr to throw a deep pass to Fingelton, who kisses it off the glass as time expires.
7) San Diego State 88, 2) Washington 81. Washington does have players to cover for Daryl Mills, but nobody to adequately replace him. With him out against a more capable opponent, Washington will be stretched thin throughout the game. SDSU gets 20 from Van Leer and moves on.
1) MIssouri 88, 12) Lafayette 77. Lafayette has a great run, but Missouri is a different beast altogether.
3) Kansas 89, 7) San Diego State 80. Kansas fires on all cylinders in this one. They do have the best single lineup in the country. Expect it to get maximum run here.
1) Missouri 80, 3) Kansas 79. These two teams faced each other on Day 11, with Missouri getting a statement-making 82-73 win. Dampier had 19 on 7-9 shooting, helping Missouri overcome a poor shooting day by Trey Blakeney (0-6), Derek Gibson (2-6) and Joe Morton (3-8). Expect the Jayhawks to try to shut down Dampier, but expect the others to have better games. This is a game that could be for the ages, and one we like Missouri taking by the slightest of margins.
Midwest Region
1) Virginia 73, 16) Idaho 58. Idaho is a team that plays like Virginia...slows you way down (348th in pace), and tries to choke the game out of you. The issue here is, they don't have the offensive efficiency to do that with Virginia.
8) Arkansas 77, 9) Saint Mary's 73. The rising star of Lorenzen Dyer will be on full display here. This could be his coming out party. But we'll wait one more round for that.
5) Stanford 79, 12) Loyola-Chicago 75. This may be closer than expected for the defending champs, as the Ramblers just can't be put away. The Cardinal get just enough from Dakota Leonard and Leon Taylor has 15 off the bench, as Stanford gets the late win.
4) Maryland 81, 13) South Dakota State 62. This is a mismach for Mason Hargrove and company.
3) Colorado 76, 14) Stephen F Austin 55. The defensive ability of the Buffaloes is better than anyone SFA has faced this year. It will show here.
10) Michigan State 66, 7) Dayton 65. We feel like it's going to be one of those games where Michigan State has no business being in the game, but they do just enough to get the win. Dayton is an efficient plodder on offense, but if Michigan State neutralizes Eric Stephens, they have a problem on offense. Kouat Jackson and Jontray Polanco are not consistent enough to be counted on, even if Jackson hit the three that won the A-10 title. Lightning does not strike twice for the Flyers.
2) North Carolina 91, 15) Buffalo 71. The Tar Heels have too much offensive firepower for the Bulls. Despite the offensive efficiency of Buffalo (33rd nationally), UNC simply has too much talent.
8) Arkansas 75, 1) Virginia 73. Lorenzen Dyer's coming out party is right here. Dyer, and Jamaal Bolden, take out the Cavaliers, who get a spirited effort from Tony Eyles (23 points) in falling just short.
4) Maryland 77, 5) Stanford 72. The champs get dethroned by a Maryland team that was seeded too low.
3) Colorado 71, 6) UNLV 60. The Runnin' Rebels run into a buzzsaw that is Colorado's defense, and after a hot start, muster just 19 second half points.
2) North Carolina 91, 10) Michigan State 88. Sparty has a way of rising to the occasion in these games, but we're going to side with the Tar Heels here. Expect this to be Dan Hargrove's best game as a Tar Heel.
4) Maryland 78, 8) Arkansas 70. Maryland gets a bigger effort from their 1-2 of Hargrove and Sam McArdle, who score 48 between them in distancing themselves away from the Razorbacks over the back end of the seocnd half.
3) Colorado 68, 2) North Carolina 64. We feel like Colorado, quite comfortable in these slow-it-down slugfests, will be able to dictate the pace against North Carolina, who struggles in such games. As a result, give us the Buffaloes.
4) Maryland 71, 3) Colorado 69. The Big Ten champs roll on to the Final Four between Hargrove, whose draft stock may never be higher after this game. His shot in traffic with 1.5 seconds left breaks a tie and Colorado's hearts. This could be the most pressure-packed game of the Elite Eight.
South Region
1) Duke 88, 16) Savannah State 61. Too much Blue Devils in this one.
9) Iowa 71, 8) St. Joseph's 68. Free throws. Iowa takes more than anyone in the country, and makes more than all but one team. They also rebound well on the defensive end. Those two things matter huge in a tight game late. Iowa will be able to close out the Fightin Jesuits.
5) Georgetown 64, 12) Fairfield 56. This feels like a proper result. Fairfield hasn't played a team as good as Georgetown this year; their team stats are a bit off because of the time Spencer Irving missed.
4) Florida 79, 13) Murray State 69. The Racers keep it close until about eight minutes left, when Florida does the thing that Florida has inexplicably done all year...win games late.
3) Indiana 79, 14) Charlotte 66. The nation's best defensive team gives it to Charlotte.
6) Kansas State 73, 11) Richmond 61. The Wildcats are underrated on defense (40th nationally in DRtg). They are able to dictate pace, forcing Richmond to play back on their heels. Their team-win mentality gets the job done here; seven players score at least eight points.
7) Villanova 67, 10) LSU 60. The kids play well for Villanova, getting valuable experience in the tournament.
2) USC 91, 15) Gardner-Webb 65. The Trojans are focused and ready for a long run in this thing.
1) Duke 72, 9) Iowa 63. Duke is second in the nation in defensive efficiency. It's their discipline in contending shots (9th nationally) that will see them through this one. Iowa cannot go long stretches of not scoring and compete.
5) Georgetown 63, 4) Florida 60. Spencer Irving's national breakout (22 points, 14 rebounds, 6 blocks) leads the Hoyas to the mildest of upsets (in our eyes, no upset whatsoever) of the Gators.
3) Indiana 74, 6) Kansas State 67. This game will be closer than it looks. The Wildcats are much better than anyone gives them credit for. But Indiana, behind Derrick Bynum and Kevon Capel, get by them by hitting free 9-9 throws in the final two minutes.
2) USC 81, 7) Villanova 75. The kids get a really valuable lesson in how to close out opponents in the tournament, as they blow a nine-point lead with six minutes to go against the Trojans. Villanova is going to be really, really good next year. This is USC's day.
1) Duke 58, 5) Georgetown 56. This is slow, methodical, drag it out. Duke gets two big buckets by Nate Dorsey in the final minute, and a pair of free throws by Travis Pickford with six seconds left, to hold off a late Hoya charge.
3) Indiana 77, 2) Southern Cal 75. This would be our favorite, and most second-most frustrating, game of the tournament. The Trojans were ranked second in our preseason ranking, the Hoosiers third. (We didn't the stones to rank Indiana #1.) This might be Kevon Capel's time in the spotlight. The freshman defensive wizard shuts down Jordan Loose, holding him to 11 points on 3-16 shooting. It's Capel's hounding of Loose on the final possession that causes a turnover, giving Indiana the game.
3) Indiana 61, 1) Duke 59. This is the most frustrating game of the tournament to us, as this would have been our preseason national championship game. These two teams were the only ones to spend any time atop our Quad 25. As it is, it comes here. The two best defensive teams in the nation have an instant classic. With five seconds left, THE Daniel Matic hits a twisting, falling away floater in the paint, then proceeds to steal the inbounds pass, as Duke tried to push it up the floor quickly. Indiana wins the game and the region.
National Semifinals
Missouri 86, Illinois 84: In a battle of tremendous freshman power forwards, Brandon Dampier will get the better of it against Denzel Sparks. But it will be Joseph Morton, he of never-mentioning, who has the banner day. With 19 points and a 6-6 mark from the line in the final minute, Morton preserves the Tigers' lead, and eventual victory.
Indiana 74, Maryland 73. These two teams faced off at Indiana on Day 124; the result, the only result these two teams have had this year, was a 90-88 classic. It may have been the Game of the Year. The eFG% for the two teams:
Indiana: 63.6%
Maryland: 63.5%
Bynum's 26, and Demonte Lindsey's 20 (9-14 FG) held off Maryland, who was led by Taurean Fischer's 20, Hargrove's 19, and McArdle's 17. Who will be the star here? We look a Bynum and Capel again to take center stage and lead Indiana to the win.
The Quad 2028 National Championship Game
Indiana 87, Missouri 85
Indiana will be tested in this game, no doubt. But they've proven they can win high-scoring games all year. We won't stray from our preseason pick, especially when the preseason pick spent 2/3 of the season atop our poll, and only fell off because of two late losses. This is the best team in the nation in our view. Brandon Dampier is, far and away, the best player in the nation. We expect him to show it in this one, perhaps to the tune of 44-17-5. But, basketball being a team sport, we think the perimeter defense of Indiana will force the rest of the Tigers to falter when the game is on the line.