JBL | The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season (Day 147): One Step Before THE Step...This is The Biggest Step
Forget the stars for a moment.
When it comes down to these games, the regional championships, analysts tend ot focus on the stars. After all, in basketball, more than any other sport, the star is the meal ticket. This is more true in college basketball than anywhere else. Have a true star? Your team goes far.
So, forget about them.
This piece is about the X-factors for each team...the guys who can shine and propel their team to glory. Or...well, if they go out and chuck and dumpster fire all over the place, could end their team's season.
No pressure, boys.
Let's take a look at who we think is the guy for each team who has a chance to stand out, without typically doing so.
Duke vs Indiana
Duke: Quinton Wiley, SF. THe transition from starter Tonny Sanders, who went down with an injury, to Wiley has not been a steady one for the Blue Devils. Since Wiley was inserted into the starting lineup, Duke's main lineup is -8 in 203:29. The main issue here is Sanders' shooting versus Wiley's (40.7% to 34.3%), and that Wiley takes about a half-shot more a game than Sanders did, despite shooting much worse. Truth be told, Wiley has been terrible this year, with a 9.2 PER, a -1.9 BPM, and a negative .5 WS on offense. That said, he was 5-7 for 11 points in the win over Georgetown. Dealing with Indiana's vaunted defense will be difficult, but if Wiley can be efficient, Duke has a better chance of winning. (Then again, perhaps we should have picked Travis Pickford for this spot).
Indiana: The Daniel Maic, PG. Since becoming the starting point nine games into the season, TDM has a force at the point. He is averaging 6.4/2.2/5.5, with just .41 turnovers per game, doing so on 40.8% shooting, 38.5% from three. He's also a ridiculous 95.5% from the line. He posted what may be his best game of the year in Indiana's regional semifinal win over USC, going for 15 points and six assists, and posting an absurd 198.7/91.8 rating split. Duke's Travis PIckford is a seasoned veteran, but the junior is tremendously erratic. TDM could be the X-factor for Indiana getting past Duke. If he can ground PIckford into a rather inefficient game, and Duke isn't firing on all cylinders with the other four players on the floor, Indiana gains a clear advantage.
Pick: Indiana 61, Duke 59. We're not wavering from this pick. This was the score we picked when we first picked this game. (We looked it up.) It simply feels right to us.
Maryland vs Colorado
Maryland: Taurean Fischer, PG. As we've said time and time again...we love senior point guards. We especially love them when they've undergone adversity, like Fischer did earlier in his career. He was benched in his sophomore season, averaging just 9.3 minutes per game, despite scoring 14.0 ppg as a freshman. He regained his starting spot back as a junior, and has become a better all-around player. Fischer has posted 12.1 points and 6.5 assists per game, along with 1.3 steals. He's shooting 40.7% (he used to be much better iwth his shot, but he doesn't look for it as often as he used to), and 42.2% from three. For all the love Mason Hargrove and Sam McArdle jusifiably get, Fischer is the one who steers this ship for the Terps.
Colorado: Kenny Brown, SF. For the somewhat anonymous Buffaloes, there is a name to pay atention to. Kenny Brown has had moments of combustion this year. He scored 26 points in consecutive games against the Washingtons, only to score 13 points combined in games against Utah and USC immediatley after. This was a knock on Brown, who had seen this throughout his career. His scoring had dropped in each of his three seasons at Colorado, his shooting percentage going with it (not much, but enough). Since that USC/Utah debacle, Brown has been a steady rock. Only once has he failed to score in double figures since those two games, that being an 8-point effort against Stephen F. Austin, in which he played just 24 minutes. He scored 22 in the win over UNC. He isn't the most efficient scorer, but he's their most consistent. This is a team that had just one player average double figures this year; that would be Brown.
Pick: Maryland 71, Colorado 69. This was our choice pre-tournament, and we'll go with this. We feel like Mason Hargrove will win this game with a shot in traffic with two seconds left to take it down.
UMass vs Illinois
UMass: Brandon Saglam, SF. Yes, everyone knows about Twice-A-Day Eddie Maye. Not as many know about Saglam, who tied as the team's second-leading scorer with Ryan Goss. The versatile forward--he played 70% of his time at shooting guard last year, and 68% of his time at power forward this year--and efficiency (43.7% FG, 37.1 3% on 6.4 attempts), and his rebounding (6.7 rpg) have unlocked the key to this UMass offense. Sure, Maye's 20.7 ppg average has been a huge reason why...but it's Saglam's ability to adapt and stay efficient that has made it go. Saglam had a bad day against Michigan (2-10 FG), and that cannot happen if UMass has any hope of getting past Illinois.
Illinois: Niels Martin, SF. Martin, a senior transfer in from Vanderbilt, has been the qualifying ingridient for this team's consistency. Denzell Sparks' play has made them great, yes...but Martin has kept them winning games. He posted 13.0 ppg, on 42.6% shooting, 43.6% from 3. He's the team's third-leading scorer, but perhaps the most important cog in their offense to get going. The Denzels--Sparks and second-leading scorer Medlock--are volume shooters. Martin is more savvy with his selections, mainly because he has to be. If he doesn't have a solid game, While Saglam has the tougher job because he has to defend Sparks, there is more pressure on Martin. He came here for this exact reason. Now Illinois is here, in a sizeable part to him.
Pick: Illinois 77, UMass 70. Illinois has a better inside-out duo with the Denzels. Eddie Maye and company have had a great ride...now here's hoping Maye keeps his head and stays.
Missouri vs Kansas
Missouri: Derek Gibson, PG. Gibson has been erratic and inefficient at times. Yet he's shot 42.2% from the field, 39.6% from three. As was pointed out on the 40ish Minutes of Hell tournament preview, when Missouri lost games, it was primarily due to Gibson's inefficiencies. Now comes a rematch with Kansas and Adam Fingelton. Neither one had a good game in the first one, an 82-73 Mizzou triumph. Gibson had six points and two assists, and fouled out in 23 minutes. Fingelton had 11 and five assists. We feel like Gibson's profile is going to be higher in this one, and while Brandon Dampier is the obvious focus, it's Gibson who can make the Tigers soar or sink.
Kansas: Jared Hodge, SG. In the first matchup, Hodge scored his season average of 10 points. As Kansas' second-leading scorer behind Ashton Carr, he'll be called upon for more than that in this one. Between Hodge and C Brandon Tatum, the Jayhawks would love to get 30 combined. In the first game, they got 22, on 7-16 shooting. Kansas lost by nine. You can't count on Fingelton, who is as erratic as it gets with his scoring. So it has to come from those two, but mostly Hodge. He has to be aggressive and get his buckets, if Kansas is going to take down Missouri.
Pick: Missouri 80, Kansas 79. Another pre-tournament pick. We feel like this is the game for the Tigers' supporting cast, as Kansas will put all of their efforts on Dampier. Then again, teams have done that recently...hasn't exactly worked out for them, has it?
Elite Eight Selections: 7 of 8 (we were a Michigan away from a perfect 8/8)