JBL | The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season (Day 153): Hoosier Champion? Or Tiger King?
All season long, we have tried to deliver the narrative of the 2028 CJBL season to you. For those who have read each isssue of the Quadaily, you have read 117 pages, and over 32,000 words (minus whatever this comes to be). We don't profess to be the best analysis of college basketball (though the bracket challenge would back up anyone's claim of that). There are plenty of excellent resources available to fans out there. We are just one of many.
But we are nothing if not consistent. And so, we say this:
Above anything and everything, thank you for choosing to read this column as often as you have.
And now, it's time to get on with basketball.
The nation's two best teams all season long are facing off tonight, as Indiana and Missouri take the court for the national championship game. Two teams are considerably different in several ways, but their placement in this game could not be denied.
Here's a quick tale of the Quad tape:
Indiana (33-4) vs Missouri (35-5)
Preseason rank (Quad)
Indiana: 3rd (because we were too chicken to put them #1)
Missouri: Next (26th); moved up to 22nd on Day 5
Peak Position:
Indiana: #1 (Days 29-124)
Missouri: #2 (Day 127)
Final Position:
Missouri: #2
Indiana: #4
When we first believed in Indiana: When we saw their roster construction. We said this about them in our preseason piece:
"Indiana (19-13): Definitely ranked high, but you gotta believe in the Hoosiers this year."
We felt like the defense of Indiana was going to be especially tough, and the fact that they had a solid senior point guard--who got replaced by a dynamic freshman in The Daniel Matic--and a top star in Derrick Bynum, gave the Hoosiers pieces to make a good run, despite a spotty resume over the past three seasons (if we're including the seniors into this). We cannot profess to have seen Kevon Capel coming, exactly (he is the nation's best defender, by the metrics). But we were firm on Indiana from the start.
When we first believed in Missouri: Day 13, where they co-headlined our column after beating Kansas. We said they "were still something of an unknown quantity" at that point, but that their win over the Jayhawks "was the best by any mid-tier team (according to the rankings)" of the early season.
This was also our first utterance of Brandon Dampier, who was not, at that point, Brandon F'N Dampier. In fact, we had mentioned Derek Gibson well before that (calling his early season offensive explosion a quasar that can turn into a black hole).
When Indiana is on offense: The Hoosiers ranked 14th in the nation in scoring (76.8 ppg) with the 31st ORtg (111.7). They're 71st in pace. The Hoosiers rely on shooting well (15th in FGM and FG%); they are fifth in 3pt%, but don't shoot too many of those (221th). They are 26th in free throw %, and 12th overall in effective FG%.
Their offense typically goes through SF Derrick Bynum, who led the team with 17.7 ppg, 47.5% FG). Demonte Lindsey (9.8 ppg, 52.7%) has been a steady presence inside, while Capel (9.7 ppg, 47.6%, 49.5% 3) has ben solid outside in low usage.
August Shannon leads the reserve crew with 11.8 ppg.
The Daniel Matic (6.4 ppg, 5.5 apg) is the main distriutor for a team who averaged 20.3 assists per game. That was 32nd in the nation.
In terms of how their offense runs, Bynum is best coming off a screen (1.23 PPP, 66.7% shooting) and in spotting up (.97 PPP, 55.8%). Capel is much more effective in spotting up (1.25, 71.2%). Shannon does most of his damage in transition (1.11 PPP, 60.3%); TDM is solid in transition and spotting up, as well as in a handoff.
This team is quite effective around the rim, Bynum in particular (68% on 2.3 attempts). Indiana is pretty poor in close attempts and in long-range jumpers. Missouri would want Rodney Collins (35.8%) and Malik Harris (22.7%) to shoot from outside. THey want to keep the ball out of Capel's, Bynum's, or Shannon's (44.6%) hands.
One thing MIssouri might want to let Indiana do: post up. Nobody is really adept at posting up for Indiana.
One thing Missouri definitely doesn't want Indiana to do: cut. Most of the players average over 1.0 PPP in cuts. This is a very efficient offensive team
Player to gamble on: Malik Harris, PG. Harris has been dreadful all year, having to deal with losing his starting spot to TDM. He's been a -1.7 EWA, and a -5.2 BPM. His ratings (93.7/102.2) suggest he's a player Missouri could exploit. But he's also a senior point guard, who, as you know, we're high on. We feel like Harris can shine in this game. We also think the TIgers will give him the chance to do that.
Indiana has a lot of variety on their team, which makes them dangerous. Bynum led the team in plays run for him, with 534, but two players (Shannon, Lindsey) had over 300. Capel had 276. TDM, Harris, and Kesean Thompson all had at least 149 plays run.
Missouri on defense: They ranked 45th in oPPG (64.1), and were 256th in DRtg (105.9). The Tigers are 350th in total rebounds per game, and 343rd on the defensive end. None of their defensive stats really stand out, save for contested shots (12th in the nation) and deflections (9th). Defense is not where this team hangs its hat.
Their lead lineup has a DRtg of 109.5, while their backups are the more defensive lineup, at 98.5.
Of course, the team has Dampier, who proved to be maybe the best all-around defender in the country. He had a DRtg of 95.3, and was among the national leaders in steals and blocks. The issue here: their next-best defender appears to be SF Gabe Jones, who had a 105.3 DRtg in 302 minutes (1/3 the time of Dampier).
Among the starters, their next-best defender is Trey Blakeney, who had a DRtg of 108.1. He also accured 0.6 defensive win shares, which was also second on the team. Teams shot 44% against them this year, and 33.7% from beyond the arc. That 44% ranks Missouri among the worst in the nation, whereas the 33.4% is more middle of the pack.
Okay, so this team isn't going to win any awards on defense. But against a team with the firepower and efficiency like Indiana, this is a major problem.
Missouri on offense: We know this is where Missouri plants is flag. The Tigers ranked 49th in PPG (73.9), but were the nation's most efficient team (121.5 ORtg). They are 2nd in field goal percentage (47.9%), and third in free throw rate. THey finished 20th in eFG% (53.7%), and were third in turnovers per game, at 6.9.
The Tigers were 6th in free throws made, 9th in free throws attempted, and 40th in FT percentage (78.2). They are also 36th in turnovers per game.
They are the ultimate plod pressure team, as their 322nd-ranked pace indicates. THey have won the same way teams like Duke and Virginia won...they are calcuated on offense, and force teams into limited possessions.
Of course, the Tigers run through Dampier, who led the nation in scoring (22.5 ppg, 60.6% FG). Derek Gibson posted 14.2 ppg on 42.2% FG, 39.6% from three; he has been more dependable from deep as the season has gone on, but in every loss the Tigers have had, he put up a clunker. His ziee against TDM is an advantage, but TDM is by far the better, more efficient player.
Joseph Morton (9.3 ppg, 45% FG and 3pt) is their main wild card. He is capable of going for big numbers, but typically gets swallowed up by Gibson's thirst for points. However, in a matchup against Capel, it is possible that Morton goes completely silent. This will be a splendid matchup for both players, as Morton's offensive game is more subtle, but quite efficient (126.9 ORtg)
This team operates primarily off of Dampier cuts, which is interesting. He's at 1.27 PPP, with a staggering 339 points on 67.5% eFG. This is where Morton also thrives, as he is 1.43 PPP, 71.7% shooting (just 33 points on 23 possessions). Missouri does this far, far more than anything else; 266 possessions ended in Dampier cuts (for 339 points). Their next-highest was with Dampier as a pick-and-roll man (1.13 PPP, 166 points on 147 possessions).
If they want to cut into Dampier's efficiency, make him play with his back to the basket. His eFG is just 48.7% there.
For Gibson, let him post up (.71 eFG) or take handoffs (.84). Blakenely too (.56). Reaistically, the more you put the ball into Trey Blakeney's hands, the better off you are as a defense. His effectiveness starts and ends with cuts (1.33 PPP). He's sub 1.00 in every other form of offense for Missouri.
Dampier led the team in possessions with 603 plays run for him. Gibson had 436, then Blakeney with 288. The more they get the ball into Trey's hands, the better off for Indiana.
Indiana on defense: The Hoosiers ranked 66th in oPPG (65.9), but were sixth in DRtg. (These two teams were 6th and 7th in NetRtg.) Indiana was 5th in blocks per game (6.3), 7th in transition points per game (11.2), and 29th in points off turnovers per game (10.8). They are 44th in defensive rebounds, and 131st in overall rebounds. They finished 29th in contested shots, and 127th in deflections. But they led the nation in charges drawn, and finished 53rd in loose balls recovered.
This team gets after it.
Teams shot 40% from the field against the Hoosiers (30th in the nation), and 30.4% from 3 (33rd in the nation).
Looking at their individual stats, their worst defender--The Daniel Matic--would be the Tigers' second-best defender, if you look at DRtg (104.5 DRtg). Capel led the nation with a 88.9 DRtg, while Bynum posted a 94.3 mark. Lindsey was at 99.3. Rodney Collins, the forgotten starter, is 96.2. Kyle Anton has a 92.7 mark off the bench. KeSean Thompson has a 95.8.
As a unit, Indiana's starting lineup has a 91.1 DRtg, and hold teams to 37.6% from the field, 27.5% from three. Their backups have an 88.0 DRtg.
Our call:
The clear-cut advantage here is in Indiana's defense. But how much of an advantage will it be? Kansas has what could be considered an elite defense, and Missouri shredded it. But we feel as the Tigers haven't seen a defense like Indiana's. Dampier, in particular, hasn't seen a defender like Bynum. Rodney Collins should make Trey Blakeney's life a living hell. And TDM, while not a defensive genius, can make things very, very tough for Derek Gibson, who is bull-headed enough to try and defeat that challenge, and torpedo Missouri's offensive plans altogether.
The question here is, can Dampie get Bynum into early foul trouble? Granted, KeSean Thompson is just as good a defender as Dampier, and Demonte Lindsey doesn't give any quarter...but if Dampier can force Indiana to have to resort to its bench early, and disurpt the depth, which also benefits the Hoosiers, then this game shifts back towards Missouri.
In the end, we're going with what we said in the beginning. We have felt all year that Indiana was the nation's best team. There has been absolutely nothing to dissuade us from that line of thinking. As good as Missouri is, they have some major hurdles to overcome in this game, hurdles they didn't face in a very offensive SEC.
Our Pre-Tournament Pick: Indiana 87, Missouri 85
We feel that to be pretty correct, though we could also see Indiana winning by 12+, because of Missouri's inefficiencies on the defensive end, as well as Indiana being able to neutralize what Missouri does well. We do believe that Dampier is good enough to keep Missouri in this game by himself (we said we could see him going for 44-17-5 in this one).
However, in a season full of offensive amazes, defense will reign.
Indiana will win the national championship.
We said it on Day 1.
We will watch it on Day 153.