Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrith
Cunning is 1/17 - about 6%. Realistically, a 6% chance of dumping the game on Day 1 isn't bad considering the upside. Heck, it's the same chance we have (in a vacuum) of lynching the real seer on Day 1 anyway, and that rarely stops us from doing that.
And we can always just lynch our second seer if they live too long. I have advocated the lynch the seer to prove the data strategy from time to time in the past.
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Not just the odds of cunning but you also must calculate the odds of it being a wolf. We either build a CoT which becomes useless and waste time chasing our tail or the real seer has to out himself if he scans the believed (and with a fake seer role out there it could just make the real seer question his own scans).
Believed BG is the way to go day one. We risk losing little and have a huge upside.