JBL | The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season (Day 61): Maybe Someday You'll Estimate Me, Jan
A question was posed to us last night, because our opinion is valued, and therefore, it is sought. It's not like we asked for questions. We have a lot of ideas on a daily basis for this column.
We do.
Anyway, we were asked who we thought are the most overrated and underrated teams in the nation. And, so, today, we will explore that very thing.
Most Underrated
1. Utah (9-3):: The Utes are Virginia West. They do not score a lot, but are efficient on offense. It's their pace (322nd) that bothers teams, much like Virginia. It certainly bothered North Carolina. It bothered Southern Cal. It is what can make them dangerous in the Pac-12 (again, as Southern Cal can attest). The Utes are 34th in oPPG, but 180th in DRtg. The Utes are 2-3 in Quad 1 games, but 5-0 in Quad 2 games. They are 8th in RPI and 7th in SOS. They have a legit offensive star in Josh Doorson (17.6 PPG, 44% 3pt), but balance from Stephon Thorpe and Zach King. It is that kind of inside-out balance, and efficiency that teams can have difficulty dealing with.
2. Missouri (9-2): Well, we guess we were the earliest on them, and we've underrated them. Missou is second in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are 313th in pace; we guess they're Virginia Central. Their DRtg is 260th in the nation, but 61st in oPPG. They are 1st in free throw rate (though 147th in FT%, something that could come back to haunt them). They are eighth in the nation in turnovers per game. We kind of see a theme here. Missouri is 14th in points in the paint per game, at 40.8. They are 4th in RPI and 2nd in SOS. They have the composite of a team that can make a deep run. Yet, when we look at title contenders, Mizzou is not considered. Heck, if we were to make another bracket this second, they would have a strong claim to a top seed; we see them more as a 2/3. So, some of this underratedness is from a media standpoint. We understand that. The point is, while even we did not think they would be this good, this quickly (Brandon Dampier, thank you), we want to see what happens when things are not going as easily for them. (For the record, Dampier and Derek Gibson may be the best 1-2 combo in the nation.)
3. Maryland (8-3): There really isn't much Maryland shines at, outside of shooting free throws (14th in the nation in FT%, at 81.1). They do get points in the paint (19th in the nation). But their ORtg/DRtg are not spectacular (58th/72nd). They're pretty average in everything. But we think a lot of that had to do with a difficult early slate, in which they dropped three of their first four. Those losses are to Arkansas by a bucket, Iowa State by three, and Duke on a night when everyone but Mason Hargrove shot terribly. Since then, Maryland has beaten Georgetown, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Virginia. They have a bonafide star in Hargrove, and balance on offense. Right now, they are playing as good as anyone in the nation. Yet, they are not getting the love, nationally. Yet, they are 4-3 in Q1, 3-0 in Q2, and have no Q4 games. Hence, they are underrated.
Most Overrated
1. Ohio State (11-2): Welp, here we are. The Buckeyes only have three true away games to this point; they are 2-1 in those games. They are also 8-0 in games involving Q3-4 teams. They lost to a Cincinnati team that was all up in their feelings. Yes, they did beat Syracuse on the road, and just handled an equally-overrated Minnesota team. But the bulk of meat of their OOC schedule: Detroit Mercy, Illinois-Chicago, Western Michigan, Miami (OH), Ohio, Milwaukee, and VCU. That is as weak an OOC schedule as you'll find from a team with such a lofty ranking. The media--us included--are still living on last year's squad. This year's has not proven much yet, outside of the Syracuse win (which was a very good win, but it's the only one they have). Their leading scorer, GIlbert Hart, is averaging just 11.4 ppg, and that's on 44% shooting. They are a pretty inefficient, inconsistent offense. That does not hold well come conference play, let alone tournament time. They are ninth in defensive rating, but does that tell us anything? At least with a team like UConn, who has played a variety of tough teams, we know their defense is for real. We don't know anything about Ohio State yet, truly.
2. Oklahoma State (9-3). Why are the Cowboys here? We can start with their 4-0 against Q4 teams. Yes, they're another team who beat Syracuse, as well as Creighton. They own no other win of note, and just got destroyed by Baylor. They are an offensive team who doesn't play an alarming pace, doesn't shoot free throws, and does not rebound. Nor do they score in the paint, which is usually a barometer for a team with good offensive balance. They rank 232nd in the nation there. They do get a lot from their bench. One bit of worry is their most-used lineup, against the level of competition they have played up to this point, is only a +11.9 Net. You would think that, for a great team, against mediocre competition, that Net would be somewhere in the mid-20s, at least. That's a worrying sign, though they are in a conference where they can get away with it, for the most part. (On second thought, remember the Baylor loss? Yeah, us too.).
3. Connecticut (12-2). Yup, the Huskies are here. How, you ask? They are a good, but not great, offensive team. Last year's team was constructed in much the same way. They are a supreme defensive team. The issue with UConn is that they do like to play fast. If they get into a shootout with a team, the scales do not tip in their favor. And their roster construct is, well, Jack, defensive bigs, and inconsistency in the backcourt. This sounds familiar. We saw this nearly cost them against Seton Hall, who sits 4-7 on the year. Yes, UConn has played a tough schedule, and have only lost to Kentucky and Duke, both by a single possession. There are things to like, but we don't think they're as good as their resume has them now, and that the end result will end up in agony and a lost season in Storrs.
A quick note about our poll: You may have noticed that the recent AP poll is quite reactionary, and that there are some movements that are not in line with the poll you have seen from us. We are not the AP. We are better than them, even if they do feel like they got their act together a little bit more. No, we do not believe San Diego State is sixth in the nation. No, we do not believe Drexel is 24th (though shoutout to the Dragons, we are watching).
In short, this poll is not emulative of what they are doing. We are our own poll; you could consider us to be the poll through the eyes of one pollster. You can agree with us. Or you don't have to. To that end, I say, make your own then. (But keep enjoying ours.) This is a fun exercise that spawed this column, and will continue to do so. And we're serious about making your own. This is not an easy exercise to do. It has gotten easier because we do it each day, and, thus, we do not have to be quite as reactive (though Michigan State needs to get their damn act together...we get six losses against the nation's absolute best, but it's still six losses. Come on, Sparty.)
Anyway, we thought we would clear the air regarding this minor and all-too-important issue. Carry on.
The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season
Day 61
1. Indiana (11-1, 1)
2. Duke (11-2, 3)
3. North Carolina (12-2, 4)
4. Conneticut (12-2, 5)
5. Kentucky (12-0, 6)
6. Southern Cal (11-2, 2)
7. Arizona (12-2, 7)
8. Kansas (10-3, 8)
9. NC State (11-1, 9)
10. Colorado (12-1, 11)
11. Virginia (11-1, 12)
12. Washington (10-3, 10)
13. San Diego State (12-0, 14)
14. Illinois (10-2, 13)
15. Missouri (9-2, 17)
16. Ohio State (11-2, 18)
17. Florida (8-3, 19)
18. Pittsburgh (10-3, 15)
19. Purdue (8-4, 22)
20. Utah (9-3, 23)
21. Villanova (9-3, 25)
22. Michigan State (6-6, 16)
23. Stanford (10-3, 20)
24. Michigan (8-4, NR)
25. Memphis (9-4, NR)
Next: Maryland, Gonzaga, Georgetown, Arkansas, Iowa State
Dropped Out: Oklahoma State (21), Georgetown (24)