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Comey · 05-07-2020, 08:04 PM

JBL | The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season (Day 69): Bracketology: The Second Bracketing, Electric Bugaloo

About three weeks ago, we made a bracket.

Forgetting what we learned and being gluttons for punishment, we made another.

We decided to tag this along wth some Buy or Sell, because right now, there are many, many incomplete resumes out there. This should be the case; it's only halfway through the season. We found, though, that further down the bracket, it got harder and harder to get to the final teams. So, we'll try and reason some of that out (to be honest, it may help us, because a few of our choices, we can't really reaosn out).

For this, we are taking the CJBL Tournament Committee's new spreadsheet out for a test spin. The spreadhseet conveniently sorts and ranks the teams by several things, the main one being RPI/SOS. It also presents all of the Quad wins, along with all of the advanced stats the committee will be looking for, all in a handy spreadhseet. (There are also a ton of other sheets to puruse; it's a lot of information at your fingertips. Thanks to the committee for letting us use it.

We do not envy your job this year. Oof.

First, here's a listing of teams who were in the last bracket, but not in this one:

5 Line: Texas
6 Line: Oklahoma
7 Line: UCLA
8 Line: Georgia Tech
9: Oklahoma State, Minnesota
10: Wisconsin, Marquette
11: Kansas State

We did not list the autobid changes, as that will remain fluid throughout the season.

State of #1: Right now, we have Indiana as the #1 overall seed, followed by Kentucky, Connecticut, and North Carolina. There are arguments to be made for Virginia (an argument is sealed if the Hoos beat the Heels in their next game) and Missouri as being #1s. Right now, we are content with where it is, though that contentment could turn cold by next week, easily.

The Bubble Picture: In a noise, oof.

Last Four Byes: Tennessee, New Mexico, San Diego, Iowa. We're writing this after we started the Buy/Sell, so one spoiler: we refer to seeds 7 on as a "cesspool of mediocrity". Really, it should be that at this stage; nobody who is on those lines should feel good about their spot. And since resumes are incomplete, well...theirs need improvement.

We do find San Diego's inclusion to be interesting. Really, we could find nobody to take them out. We imagine that, by the next time we do this, unless they beat the Zags, someone will have overtaken them. As it stands now, their resume is better than Oklahoma, Wisconsin, A&M, etc.

Last Four Byes: Louisville, Cincinnati, Michigan State, BYU

We should catch flak for putting Michigan State and Cincinnati here. Really, we do think a team like UCLA will rise back up. But we have faith that Michigan State is primed for a run. Maybe. We mean, they probably will, really. Definitely. Yup. It's comig.

We do have to note: No at-large team with a current losing record, even if we think they should be in, is included. That's UCLA, Texas, and the like. We think they could get in if they get things turned around (especially in the case of UCLA, but they need a serious run in the Pac-12).

First Four Out: Notre Dame, Texas, UCLA, Minnesota
Next Four Out: Michigan, Okahoma State, Washington State, Wisconsin

East

State of the #1 Seed: Connecticut is the current #1 in the AP Poll, something we obviously do not agree with (as evidenced by our own poll, where UConn has not been at the top spot, or even second, once this season). That said, their schedule rivals anyone's in the country, and they have only two losses, to Duke and Kentucky, each by a single possession. They own maybe the nation's stingiest defense, and they have the nation's leading scorer. This is a secure spot for the Huskies, for now.

Buy: Virginia (2). The Cavaliers are a 2-seed here, up from a 3 in our last bracket. We actually had them on the 1-line originally, but flipped them with North Carolina. It's too early in the conference season to get too wrapped up in conference record, so that Virginia is leading the ACC at the moment is pretty meaningless. That said, they get North Carolina at home in their next game; a win over UNC would likely cause us to flip it back. Regardless, we believe in Virginia. They are deserving of this spot, and could easily have an argument for more.

Sell: Ohio State (7). We highlighted a week ago that Ohio State is the most overrated team in the country. Their resume has them around this range for now, though this is easily a team trending downward. That Ohio State isn't lower, and probably won't get much lower, is more an indictment on the rest of the at-large, which is a cesspoll of mediocrity, than it is about Ohio State's overall resume, which is also a cesspoll of mediocrity. It's just in the shallow end.

Buy: Villanova (6): They are young, yes. But they are growing and improving. Their resume is solid (3-4 Q1, 3-0 Q2), and they have chances to improve in a good Big East. One tip of stability: their top three lineups all have NetRtg's above 20. That's impressive for such a young team, especially one who has played a schedule as solid's as Nova.

Sell: Drexel (10). Look, we have Drexel in our Next category today. They're a wonderful story right now. We simply do not buy a team that is 9-0 against Q3-4. Yes, they are 4-2 against Q1-2. They have wins over Fairfield and Bryant, who should make the tournament through their conference. They also have losses to Penn State and Murray State, though both on the road. They are a Virginia-esque team, in that they slow it down and they are efficient on offense (18th nationally). But they have played exactly one elite offense, that being Penn State. They lost by 20, 86-66. They have not cracked 80 once this year, and have only cracked 75 three times. This does not bode well when you have to face a team capable of scoring 70 on anyone.

East Region

1) Connecticut (Big East) vs 16) Hartford (AEC)
8) Syracuse (At-Large) vs Kansas State (At-Large)

5) Maryland (At-Large) vs 12) Bryant (NEC)
4) Florida (At-Large) vs 13) Fairfield (MAAC)

3) Colorado (Pac-12) vs 14) Buffalo (MAC)
6) Villanova (At-Large) vs 11) Louisville/Cincinnati

7) Ohio State (At-Large) vs 10) Drexel (CAA)
2) Virginia (ACC) vs 15) Samford (Southern)

South

State of the Top Seed: Kentucky is still undefeated, and entirely worthy of the top spot here. If they falter (a couple of times), we would be more apt to send them west, and replace them with the ACC frontrunner. And while Missouri has a solid argument for a #1, the fact is that Kentucky is the last remaining undefeated team in the nation. They own a win over UConn and handed Indiana their only loss so far. You could make a better argument for Kentucky as the #1 overall seed than moving to the 2-line.

Buy: Memphis (6). Everyone wanted to sell Memphis earlier in the season, when they were just 4-4. They have not lost since then. Memphis has national title talent; for the Tigers, it's a matter of coming together and figuring out their optimal style of play. They appear to have done that by slowing it down and grinding things out, as well as not turning the ball over. You know, there is a running theme with teams we find are beginning to peak, or teams we think have a solid chance of going far in the tournament.

Sell: Arizona (4). THere just isn't any confidence in the Wildcats. They have had three chances to make a statement so far this seaosn, against Kansas, UConn, and recently at home against Washington. All four were losses, none of which were particularly competitive. Yes, they beat Stanford handedly, but they turned around and lost to a UCLA team that was 0-8 against Q1 teams up to that point. The schedule is built on losses against weak teams (with a win against New Mexico and BYU sprinkled in). As good as Jeremy Sawvell has been, the rest of the team has been okay, at best. It's just not a team we have confidence in at the moment.

Buy: St. John's (8). The Johnnies, we thought, had one of those stories that was nice early, but would certainly fizzle. We were wrong. While, again, cesspoll of mediocirty, this is more about the Red Storm's narrative than it is about the field. St. John's slid up from a play-in 11 spot to a 9 here. They are 14th in RPI+SOS, and 4-4 in Q1 games, 8-4 in Q1+2 games. Beating a red hot Villanova team, right after a big win against Georgetown, made us realize this team will only miss the CJBL Tournament if there's a major collapse. They would be prohibitive underdogs in the first round matchup here, but given that they won five games last year, this might be the best coaching job done in the nation.

Sell: Florida State (9). Nobody was more surprised than us to see the Seminoles ranked in the top 20 by the overreactionary AP this week. They aren't worthy of the spot. Florida State is 58th in RPI+SOS. They are 3-2 against Q1 teams, yes. But they are 7-0 against Q3-4. Their best win is either Georgia Tech or Louisville. They don't have a single non-conference win to put up as a signature win for the committee. Sure, they'll have opportunities to gain quality wins. We think it's more likely that they get exposed. That elite defense (11th in oPPG, 7th in DRtg) is about to get put to the test.

South Region

1) Kentucky (SEC) vs Gardner-Webb (Big South)/North Alabama (A-Sun)
8) St. John's (At-Large) vs Florida State (At-Large)

5) Purdue (At-Large) vs 12) Murray State (OVC)
4) Arizona (At-Large) vs 13) Navy (Patriot)

3) Illinois (At-Large) vs 14) South Carolina State (MEAC)
6) Memphis (AAC) vs 11) San Diego (At-Large)

7) Georgetown (At-Large) vs Tennessee (At-Large)
2) Duke (At-Large) vs Arkansas Pine-Bluff (SWAC)

Midwest

State of the #1 Seed: Indiana is the top seed overall. Easy as that.

Buy: Stanford (6). We really like the six seeds in this tournament. Stanford is capable of beating anybody. They are 17th in RPI, and yet we have them as a six. Yeah, it's probably too low right now. It wll probably be too low come tournament time. The Cardinal are 4-4 in Q1 games, 5-0 in Q2. They have opportunities to improve, and there are teams in the Pac-12 that can slide as they move up. The defending champs still get to the line a lot, and still hit their free throws. They still score a lot in the paint, and still get points off turnovers and in transition. Their defense is a concern, but they put teams on their heels quickly. There is a lot to like here.

Sell: Pittsburgh (5). They have been a tough out all season long. They took Indiana to overtime (they should have won that game). Sure, they are 2-4 in Q1 games, and 6-0 in Q3-4 games. Their Q1 wins are Penn State and Georgetown. They'll have chances to improve, but we worry that they'll be the tough out that continually comes up short in the conference. They could (and should) get over .500 soon; they do have NC State on the road, but then BC, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Notre Dame, and Clemson (then FSU again). So this record will likely inflate. We like this PItt team, but we have our reservations that they can beat elite teams on a neutral court.

Buy: Arkansas (8): The Razorbacks are 10-7, but 5-6 in Q1 games. They are 3-1 in Q2. Yes, they have a negative NetEff right now, which is why they are ranked lower than they are. And yes, their team is imbalanced and very average, if you go by team stats. (Okay, average is generous.) And sure, two of their wins, over Maryland and Georgetown, were buzzer-beaters. To us, that tells us Arkansas does not wilt down the stretch. Their losses are to UConn, UNC, Colorado, Georgia Tech (when Georgia Tech couldn't be beat), Florida twice, and Mizzou. Where is the bad loss there? Kentucky comes calling on Day 80, and they should be undefeated going into it; let's see how that goes. (Prediction: Kentucky will no longer be undefeated after Day 80.)

Sell: Penn State (10). It's the defense. The Nits have been a great story so far this year. But this is all about their defense, which is terrible and, while it may be capable of beating UNLV, who we have them matched up with in the first round, it certainly would not get them past Kansas on a neutral court. We guess that, if you're a lower seed, even winning a single game would mean we should buy your stock. Unfortunately, we feel like the lack of defense could really hurt Penn State in Big Ten play. If a team like Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan or Michigan State can turn their season around, it could be an the expense of Penn State's good run so far.

South Region

1) Indiana (Big Ten) vs Utah Valley (WAC)/Texas State (Sun Belt)
8) Arkansas (At-Large) vs Creighton (At-Large)

5) Pittsburgh (At Large) vs 12) Marshall (CUSA)
4) Washington (At-Large) vs 13) Illinois State (MVC)

3) NC State (At-Large) vs 14) Oakland (Horizon)
6) Stanford (At-Large) vs 11) Iowa (At-Large)

7) UNLV (At-Large) vs 10) Penn State (At-Large)
2) Kansas (Big 12) vs Northwestern State (Southland)

West

State of the #1 Seed: North Carolina sits atop the West, though one should note the shift in region. UNC is our bottom top seed right now; if Virginia beats them when they play, those two teams will flip. Carolina is here on the strength of their win over Duke. We did originally have Virginia on the top line, but switched it while we await the results of their game. Missouri, who is second in this region, has a legit claim to the top seed here too. We could easily be criticized for them not being there, given that they are #1 in RPI and RPI+SOS, while North Carolina is fifth. We might be convincing ourselves to change it as we write this. But we'll stay true to our own poll as well, where MIzzou has been a steady, but slow, riser on our list. We just want to see more. (Truth: if Vrginia beats UNC, but it isn't an impressive win or the game is clunky, MIzzou could easily take the top spot, and three ACC teams could be on the 2 line).

Buy: Missouri (2). You saw our argument above. They are the nation's top team in RPI+SOS. They have 7-2 in Q1 wins. (UNC is 9-3.) The Tigers are 3-0 in Q2, while UNC is 2-0. The Tigers are the nation's most efficient offense; while their defense is not particularly great, they are so efficient on offense, and slow the pace down, to where teams simply don't have enough opportunities to keep up with them. They have what we think is the frontrunner for National POTY in Brandon Dampier. Their top six lineups all net positive gains. There is so much to like about this Tigers team.

Sell: San Diego State (4). The Aztecs are simply 1-1 in Q1 games. Sure, they're 14-1 overall, but they have't really played anyone. They have the win over UCLA, and a blowout over Creighton. Okay. SDSU has been elite in both ORtg and DRtg, but the schedule has not been daunting. And that defense was picked apart by UNLV. They are wonderful at shooting the ball (1st in FG made per game, 5th in FG%). We feel they have done this against a bad non-conference schedule. Unfortunately, outside of UNLV and New Mexico, there are not many other chances to see what this team can do, really. So, in the eyes of the public, SDSU could be a top-two seed. They are not that, nor should they be considered as such. Remember UNLV and Memphis last year. This is that.

Buy: Iowa State (7). We called Iowa State one of the most underrated teams in the nation. They are 27th in RPI, 2-3 in Q1 games, 3-0 in Q2. They do have a terrible loss, that to Nebraska. Their other losses are to UConn, Missouri and Kansas. They beat Maryland, Iowa, and Creighton. They rebound reasonbly well, get to the line and make their shots...they don't do a lot of defensive things well, which will be why their season ends before they want...but this team is capable of giving an elite team a run for its money. They've done it already.

Sell: Oklahoma (9). This is where we had severe problems. We originally had Michigan here, and got rid of them. Do you realize the Wolverines are 0-5 in Q1 games? The Sooners are 0-4. These teams are essnetially two Spidermans pointing at one another, but Oklahoma is slightly taller on their resume (their RPI+SOS is slightly better). This is a spot where, if UCLA or Notre Dame had winning records, we wouldn't be talking about Oklahoma.

We can tell you, Alabama vs Oklahoma would be the first-round matchup they'd air on Court TV, or PBS, if games got shifted there.

West Region

1) North Carolina (At-Large) vs South Dakota State (Summit)
8) Alabama (At-Large) vs Oklahoma (At-Large)

5) Utah (At-Large) vs 12) St. Joseph's (A-10)
4) San Diego State (MWC) vs 13) Long Beach State (Big West)

3) Southern Cal (At-Large) vs 14) Harvard (Ivy)
6) Gonzaga (WCC) vs 11) Michigan State/BYU

7) Iowa State (At-Large) vs 10) New Mexico (At-Large)
2) Missouri (At-Large) vs Northern Arizona (Big Sky)

The Quadaily, 2028 Seaosn
Day 69 (Nice.)

1. Indiana (14-1, 1)
2. Kentucky (15-0, 3)
3. Connecticut (15-2, 4)
4. North Carolina (15-3, 2)
5. Duke (15-3, 5)
6. Kansas (12-3, 6)
7. VIrginia (14-1, 9)
8. Southern Cal (13-3, 8)
9. NC State (12-2, 7)
10. Missouri (12-2, 11)
11. Colorado (14-2, 12)
12. Illinois (12-3, 15)
13. Washington (12-3, 13)
14. Arizona (12-4, 10)
15. San Diego State (14-1, 16)
16. Florida (10-4, 14)
17. Purdue (10-4, 18)
18. Utah (10-4, 19)
19. Pittsburgh (12-4, 17)
20. Maryland (11-3, 23)
21. Stanford (12-4, 21)
22. Villanova (11-4, 20)
23. Memphis (12-4, 24)
24. Gonzaga (12-2, 25)
25. Ohio State (12-4, 22)
Next: Georgetown, Iowa State, Syracuse, UNLV, Drexel
Dropped Out: None

05-07-2020, 08:04 PM	#18
Comey College Starter Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: CT via PA via CA via PA	The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season (Day 69): Bracketology: The Second Bracketing, Electric JBL \| The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season (Day 69): Bracketology: The Second Bracketing, Electric Bugaloo About three weeks ago, we made a bracket. Forgetting what we learned and being gluttons for punishment, we made another. We decided to tag this along wth some Buy or Sell, because right now, there are many, many incomplete resumes out there. This should be the case; it's only halfway through the season. We found, though, that further down the bracket, it got harder and harder to get to the final teams. So, we'll try and reason some of that out (to be honest, it may help us, because a few of our choices, we can't really reaosn out). For this, we are taking the CJBL Tournament Committee's new spreadsheet out for a test spin. The spreadhseet conveniently sorts and ranks the teams by several things, the main one being RPI/SOS. It also presents all of the Quad wins, along with all of the advanced stats the committee will be looking for, all in a handy spreadhseet. (There are also a ton of other sheets to puruse; it's a lot of information at your fingertips. Thanks to the committee for letting us use it. We do not envy your job this year. Oof. First, here's a listing of teams who were in the last bracket, but not in this one: 5 Line: Texas 6 Line: Oklahoma 7 Line: UCLA 8 Line: Georgia Tech 9: Oklahoma State, Minnesota 10: Wisconsin, Marquette 11: Kansas State We did not list the autobid changes, as that will remain fluid throughout the season. State of #1: Right now, we have Indiana as the #1 overall seed, followed by Kentucky, Connecticut, and North Carolina. There are arguments to be made for Virginia (an argument is sealed if the Hoos beat the Heels in their next game) and Missouri as being #1s. Right now, we are content with where it is, though that contentment could turn cold by next week, easily. The Bubble Picture: In a noise, oof. Last Four Byes: Tennessee, New Mexico, San Diego, Iowa. We're writing this after we started the Buy/Sell, so one spoiler: we refer to seeds 7 on as a "cesspool of mediocrity". Really, it should be that at this stage; nobody who is on those lines should feel good about their spot. And since resumes are incomplete, well...theirs need improvement. We do find San Diego's inclusion to be interesting. Really, we could find nobody to take them out. We imagine that, by the next time we do this, unless they beat the Zags, someone will have overtaken them. As it stands now, their resume is better than Oklahoma, Wisconsin, A&M, etc. Last Four Byes: Louisville, Cincinnati, Michigan State, BYU We should catch flak for putting Michigan State and Cincinnati here. Really, we do think a team like UCLA will rise back up. But we have faith that Michigan State is primed for a run. Maybe. We mean, they probably will, really. Definitely. Yup. It's comig. We do have to note: No at-large team with a current losing record, even if we think they should be in, is included. That's UCLA, Texas, and the like. We think they could get in if they get things turned around (especially in the case of UCLA, but they need a serious run in the Pac-12). First Four Out: Notre Dame, Texas, UCLA, Minnesota Next Four Out: Michigan, Okahoma State, Washington State, Wisconsin East State of the #1 Seed: Connecticut is the current #1 in the AP Poll, something we obviously do not agree with (as evidenced by our own poll, where UConn has not been at the top spot, or even second, once this season). That said, their schedule rivals anyone's in the country, and they have only two losses, to Duke and Kentucky, each by a single possession. They own maybe the nation's stingiest defense, and they have the nation's leading scorer. This is a secure spot for the Huskies, for now. Buy: Virginia (2). The Cavaliers are a 2-seed here, up from a 3 in our last bracket. We actually had them on the 1-line originally, but flipped them with North Carolina. It's too early in the conference season to get too wrapped up in conference record, so that Virginia is leading the ACC at the moment is pretty meaningless. That said, they get North Carolina at home in their next game; a win over UNC would likely cause us to flip it back. Regardless, we believe in Virginia. They are deserving of this spot, and could easily have an argument for more. Sell: Ohio State (7). We highlighted a week ago that Ohio State is the most overrated team in the country. Their resume has them around this range for now, though this is easily a team trending downward. That Ohio State isn't lower, and probably won't get much lower, is more an indictment on the rest of the at-large, which is a cesspoll of mediocrity, than it is about Ohio State's overall resume, which is also a cesspoll of mediocrity. It's just in the shallow end. Buy: Villanova (6): They are young, yes. But they are growing and improving. Their resume is solid (3-4 Q1, 3-0 Q2), and they have chances to improve in a good Big East. One tip of stability: their top three lineups all have NetRtg's above 20. That's impressive for such a young team, especially one who has played a schedule as solid's as Nova. Sell: Drexel (10). Look, we have Drexel in our Next category today. They're a wonderful story right now. We simply do not buy a team that is 9-0 against Q3-4. Yes, they are 4-2 against Q1-2. They have wins over Fairfield and Bryant, who should make the tournament through their conference. They also have losses to Penn State and Murray State, though both on the road. They are a Virginia-esque team, in that they slow it down and they are efficient on offense (18th nationally). But they have played exactly one elite offense, that being Penn State. They lost by 20, 86-66. They have not cracked 80 once this year, and have only cracked 75 three times. This does not bode well when you have to face a team capable of scoring 70 on anyone. East Region 1) Connecticut (Big East) vs 16) Hartford (AEC) 8) Syracuse (At-Large) vs Kansas State (At-Large) 5) Maryland (At-Large) vs 12) Bryant (NEC) 4) Florida (At-Large) vs 13) Fairfield (MAAC) 3) Colorado (Pac-12) vs 14) Buffalo (MAC) 6) Villanova (At-Large) vs 11) Louisville/Cincinnati 7) Ohio State (At-Large) vs 10) Drexel (CAA) 2) Virginia (ACC) vs 15) Samford (Southern) South State of the Top Seed: Kentucky is still undefeated, and entirely worthy of the top spot here. If they falter (a couple of times), we would be more apt to send them west, and replace them with the ACC frontrunner. And while Missouri has a solid argument for a #1, the fact is that Kentucky is the last remaining undefeated team in the nation. They own a win over UConn and handed Indiana their only loss so far. You could make a better argument for Kentucky as the #1 overall seed than moving to the 2-line. Buy: Memphis (6). Everyone wanted to sell Memphis earlier in the season, when they were just 4-4. They have not lost since then. Memphis has national title talent; for the Tigers, it's a matter of coming together and figuring out their optimal style of play. They appear to have done that by slowing it down and grinding things out, as well as not turning the ball over. You know, there is a running theme with teams we find are beginning to peak, or teams we think have a solid chance of going far in the tournament. Sell: Arizona (4). THere just isn't any confidence in the Wildcats. They have had three chances to make a statement so far this seaosn, against Kansas, UConn, and recently at home against Washington. All four were losses, none of which were particularly competitive. Yes, they beat Stanford handedly, but they turned around and lost to a UCLA team that was 0-8 against Q1 teams up to that point. The schedule is built on losses against weak teams (with a win against New Mexico and BYU sprinkled in). As good as Jeremy Sawvell has been, the rest of the team has been okay, at best. It's just not a team we have confidence in at the moment. Buy: St. John's (8). The Johnnies, we thought, had one of those stories that was nice early, but would certainly fizzle. We were wrong. While, again, cesspoll of mediocirty, this is more about the Red Storm's narrative than it is about the field. St. John's slid up from a play-in 11 spot to a 9 here. They are 14th in RPI+SOS, and 4-4 in Q1 games, 8-4 in Q1+2 games. Beating a red hot Villanova team, right after a big win against Georgetown, made us realize this team will only miss the CJBL Tournament if there's a major collapse. They would be prohibitive underdogs in the first round matchup here, but given that they won five games last year, this might be the best coaching job done in the nation. Sell: Florida State (9). Nobody was more surprised than us to see the Seminoles ranked in the top 20 by the overreactionary AP this week. They aren't worthy of the spot. Florida State is 58th in RPI+SOS. They are 3-2 against Q1 teams, yes. But they are 7-0 against Q3-4. Their best win is either Georgia Tech or Louisville. They don't have a single non-conference win to put up as a signature win for the committee. Sure, they'll have opportunities to gain quality wins. We think it's more likely that they get exposed. That elite defense (11th in oPPG, 7th in DRtg) is about to get put to the test. South Region 1) Kentucky (SEC) vs Gardner-Webb (Big South)/North Alabama (A-Sun) 8) St. John's (At-Large) vs Florida State (At-Large) 5) Purdue (At-Large) vs 12) Murray State (OVC) 4) Arizona (At-Large) vs 13) Navy (Patriot) 3) Illinois (At-Large) vs 14) South Carolina State (MEAC) 6) Memphis (AAC) vs 11) San Diego (At-Large) 7) Georgetown (At-Large) vs Tennessee (At-Large) 2) Duke (At-Large) vs Arkansas Pine-Bluff (SWAC) Midwest State of the #1 Seed: Indiana is the top seed overall. Easy as that. Buy: Stanford (6). We really like the six seeds in this tournament. Stanford is capable of beating anybody. They are 17th in RPI, and yet we have them as a six. Yeah, it's probably too low right now. It wll probably be too low come tournament time. The Cardinal are 4-4 in Q1 games, 5-0 in Q2. They have opportunities to improve, and there are teams in the Pac-12 that can slide as they move up. The defending champs still get to the line a lot, and still hit their free throws. They still score a lot in the paint, and still get points off turnovers and in transition. Their defense is a concern, but they put teams on their heels quickly. There is a lot to like here. Sell: Pittsburgh (5). They have been a tough out all season long. They took Indiana to overtime (they should have won that game). Sure, they are 2-4 in Q1 games, and 6-0 in Q3-4 games. Their Q1 wins are Penn State and Georgetown. They'll have chances to improve, but we worry that they'll be the tough out that continually comes up short in the conference. They could (and should) get over .500 soon; they do have NC State on the road, but then BC, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Notre Dame, and Clemson (then FSU again). So this record will likely inflate. We like this PItt team, but we have our reservations that they can beat elite teams on a neutral court. Buy: Arkansas (8): The Razorbacks are 10-7, but 5-6 in Q1 games. They are 3-1 in Q2. Yes, they have a negative NetEff right now, which is why they are ranked lower than they are. And yes, their team is imbalanced and very average, if you go by team stats. (Okay, average is generous.) And sure, two of their wins, over Maryland and Georgetown, were buzzer-beaters. To us, that tells us Arkansas does not wilt down the stretch. Their losses are to UConn, UNC, Colorado, Georgia Tech (when Georgia Tech couldn't be beat), Florida twice, and Mizzou. Where is the bad loss there? Kentucky comes calling on Day 80, and they should be undefeated going into it; let's see how that goes. (Prediction: Kentucky will no longer be undefeated after Day 80.) Sell: Penn State (10). It's the defense. The Nits have been a great story so far this year. But this is all about their defense, which is terrible and, while it may be capable of beating UNLV, who we have them matched up with in the first round, it certainly would not get them past Kansas on a neutral court. We guess that, if you're a lower seed, even winning a single game would mean we should buy your stock. Unfortunately, we feel like the lack of defense could really hurt Penn State in Big Ten play. If a team like Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan or Michigan State can turn their season around, it could be an the expense of Penn State's good run so far. South Region 1) Indiana (Big Ten) vs Utah Valley (WAC)/Texas State (Sun Belt) 8) Arkansas (At-Large) vs Creighton (At-Large) 5) Pittsburgh (At Large) vs 12) Marshall (CUSA) 4) Washington (At-Large) vs 13) Illinois State (MVC) 3) NC State (At-Large) vs 14) Oakland (Horizon) 6) Stanford (At-Large) vs 11) Iowa (At-Large) 7) UNLV (At-Large) vs 10) Penn State (At-Large) 2) Kansas (Big 12) vs Northwestern State (Southland) West State of the #1 Seed: North Carolina sits atop the West, though one should note the shift in region. UNC is our bottom top seed right now; if Virginia beats them when they play, those two teams will flip. Carolina is here on the strength of their win over Duke. We did originally have Virginia on the top line, but switched it while we await the results of their game. Missouri, who is second in this region, has a legit claim to the top seed here too. We could easily be criticized for them not being there, given that they are #1 in RPI and RPI+SOS, while North Carolina is fifth. We might be convincing ourselves to change it as we write this. But we'll stay true to our own poll as well, where MIzzou has been a steady, but slow, riser on our list. We just want to see more. (Truth: if Vrginia beats UNC, but it isn't an impressive win or the game is clunky, MIzzou could easily take the top spot, and three ACC teams could be on the 2 line). Buy: Missouri (2). You saw our argument above. They are the nation's top team in RPI+SOS. They have 7-2 in Q1 wins. (UNC is 9-3.) The Tigers are 3-0 in Q2, while UNC is 2-0. The Tigers are the nation's most efficient offense; while their defense is not particularly great, they are so efficient on offense, and slow the pace down, to where teams simply don't have enough opportunities to keep up with them. They have what we think is the frontrunner for National POTY in Brandon Dampier. Their top six lineups all net positive gains. There is so much to like about this Tigers team. Sell: San Diego State (4). The Aztecs are simply 1-1 in Q1 games. Sure, they're 14-1 overall, but they have't really played anyone. They have the win over UCLA, and a blowout over Creighton. Okay. SDSU has been elite in both ORtg and DRtg, but the schedule has not been daunting. And that defense was picked apart by UNLV. They are wonderful at shooting the ball (1st in FG made per game, 5th in FG%). We feel they have done this against a bad non-conference schedule. Unfortunately, outside of UNLV and New Mexico, there are not many other chances to see what this team can do, really. So, in the eyes of the public, SDSU could be a top-two seed. They are not that, nor should they be considered as such. Remember UNLV and Memphis last year. This is that. Buy: Iowa State (7). We called Iowa State one of the most underrated teams in the nation. They are 27th in RPI, 2-3 in Q1 games, 3-0 in Q2. They do have a terrible loss, that to Nebraska. Their other losses are to UConn, Missouri and Kansas. They beat Maryland, Iowa, and Creighton. They rebound reasonbly well, get to the line and make their shots...they don't do a lot of defensive things well, which will be why their season ends before they want...but this team is capable of giving an elite team a run for its money. They've done it already. Sell: Oklahoma (9). This is where we had severe problems. We originally had Michigan here, and got rid of them. Do you realize the Wolverines are 0-5 in Q1 games? The Sooners are 0-4. These teams are essnetially two Spidermans pointing at one another, but Oklahoma is slightly taller on their resume (their RPI+SOS is slightly better). This is a spot where, if UCLA or Notre Dame had winning records, we wouldn't be talking about Oklahoma. We can tell you, Alabama vs Oklahoma would be the first-round matchup they'd air on Court TV, or PBS, if games got shifted there. West Region 1) North Carolina (At-Large) vs South Dakota State (Summit) 8) Alabama (At-Large) vs Oklahoma (At-Large) 5) Utah (At-Large) vs 12) St. Joseph's (A-10) 4) San Diego State (MWC) vs 13) Long Beach State (Big West) 3) Southern Cal (At-Large) vs 14) Harvard (Ivy) 6) Gonzaga (WCC) vs 11) Michigan State/BYU 7) Iowa State (At-Large) vs 10) New Mexico (At-Large) 2) Missouri (At-Large) vs Northern Arizona (Big Sky) The Quadaily, 2028 Seaosn Day 69 (Nice.) 1. Indiana (14-1, 1) 2. Kentucky (15-0, 3) 3. Connecticut (15-2, 4) 4. North Carolina (15-3, 2) 5. Duke (15-3, 5) 6. Kansas (12-3, 6) 7. VIrginia (14-1, 9) 8. Southern Cal (13-3, 8) 9. NC State (12-2, 7) 10. Missouri (12-2, 11) 11. Colorado (14-2, 12) 12. Illinois (12-3, 15) 13. Washington (12-3, 13) 14. Arizona (12-4, 10) 15. San Diego State (14-1, 16) 16. Florida (10-4, 14) 17. Purdue (10-4, 18) 18. Utah (10-4, 19) 19. Pittsburgh (12-4, 17) 20. Maryland (11-3, 23) 21. Stanford (12-4, 21) 22. Villanova (11-4, 20) 23. Memphis (12-4, 24) 24. Gonzaga (12-2, 25) 25. Ohio State (12-4, 22) Next: Georgetown, Iowa State, Syracuse, UNLV, Drexel Dropped Out: None __________________