JBL | The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season (Day 81): A Mailbag Three
1) What conference do you anticipate having the most tournament bids and why?
This is interesting, given a related question we were given recently: What is the best conference and why?
If we look at the most recent bracketology, this is the breakdown:
ACC: 8 (UNC, Virginia, Duke, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, Florida State, Louisville)
Big 12: 4 (Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Kansas State)
Big East: 5 (Connecticut, Villanova, Georgetown, Creighton, St. John's)
Big Ten: 8 (Indiana, Illinois, Purdue, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Michigan State)
Pac-12: 5 (Colorado, USC, Arizona, Washington, Utah, Stanford)
SEC: 6 (Missouri, Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee)
So, in terms of quantity, the ACC and Big Ten have it. From there, the two conferences diverge. The ACC is more top-heavy, where Virginia, Duke, UNC, and NC State are all candidates for a spot on the top two lines. Indiana and Illinois really only qualify for that in the Big Ten; however, the quality of their league roster is superior to that of the ACC, in our opinion. When Michigan State is treading water, and Michigan sits outside the bracket looking in, not to mention Wisconsin and Minnesota, the Big Ten's depth shines over the ACC.
This is not to write off teams like Pitt or Syracuse, or a team like Boston College, who sits outside the bracket as well. But we don't buy Florida State or Louisville as legitimate threats, especially when compared to Iowa or Michigan State.
The Pac-12 would have an argument if Arizona were able to get itself together, and UCLA could string along some wins. USC, Washington and Colorado rival any conference's Big 3. Utah and Stanford are an excellent second tier. But after that, things fall apart. Oregon, Arizona State, and Cal are all bloated in their record. The same goes for Washington State. We understand the AP has them as the nation's top conference, but they are either second or third for us right now. We would have a hard time choosing between them and the ACC.
The SEC, after Kentucky and Missouri, are weak. They would be bolstered by Arkansas and Florida showing some strength. The Big East has UConn, who could contend with anyone, and an emerging Villanoa team. But Georgetown, despite their roster quality, seems to come up short in big games. St. John's, as fun as they have been, are not up to the quality of the other conferences at the same level.
So, our answer is the Big Ten. We have not been convinced to not have them at the top of the conference ladder.
3) Who do you think has the highest bust potential out of any lottery ranked JBL prospect?
Well, this is a very rose-colored glasses question, isn't it? The Draft Prospects list, which was released a couple of weeks ago, was updated yesterday. The class feels quite promising, especially compared to the last couple of classes (last year's class was a weird hodgepodge of role guys, starting at the #12 pick). This year's class has what appears to be star potential up and down the list.
Now, it does need to be noted, many of these kids won't come out, because if they have star potential, but would be better served by waiting a year to bolster their draft stock, they are more apt to stay in school. Also, players from smaller conferences (a la Jack Dawkins when he was at GW) are less likely to declare. Some names that, as of right now, we would have a hard time seeing come out include Jackson Swann, Joey Bullock, Corban Vance, Daniel Lukicani, Sam Meeking, Kendall Houston Jr. and Jordan Loose.
So, who do we think has bust potential? To be fair, anyone does. But we'll highlight three in particular:
1) Jack Dawkins, Connecticut. This guy has been perhaps the most polarizing prospect in JBL history. When he was at GW, it was thought that he wouldn't be able to hack it on the big stage. Now that he has at UConn, the thought is that he's either too one-dimensional or too old (he is a senior, and will be 22 as a rookie next year) to have much of a ceiling. That much is true; a team high in the draft probably will not want to draft Jack, because his ceiling is lower than teams would like. He is also a bit suspect defensively, and would probably need defensively-minded players around him for him to succeed. Jack is someone who probably fits better on a contender, or one ready to. There are a couple seemingly natural fits for him, but teams who draft need should be wary of doing so.
2) Derrick Bynum, Indiana. The consensus #1 prospect is a bust potential? Oh, most definitely, and for two reasons. What we hear from multiple scouts who have seem him play is that, while he has a great all-around shooting touch, his finishing inside is a bit dodgy for someone 6'11. He also has no ball-handling skills (something you would understand from someone who is more of a 4 than a 3).
His defense also leaves something to be desired. He is definitely not a SF, and might not be strong enough to be a PF. He does rate as a stretch 4, but he does not appear to be offensively aware enough to grow on that side.
When you compare him to recent #1 picks, he does not seem to stack up to such a lofty ranking.
Which team, or teams, do you think will improve the most from here in regards to their poll or quad daily rankings. We do think Bynum is a likely top-ten pick, but #1? We aren't there, and it isn't likely that we ever will be.
3) Raijon Ward, Texas. Ward is still growing as a post presence, which is why him being ranked around #5 overall is such a poison for him. He is raw and needs seasoning. His mid-range game is terrible, and while he could go outside, it's too inconsistent to be successful at the pro level. His execution in the post is another thing that needs work.
However, where things really get dicey is on the defensive end. It is the general perrogative of JBL teams to find bigs who can do the three big things: score (even if it's 14-16 a night), defend, and rebound. Ward may be capable of the former, but he is not capable of the latter two. His defense is atrocious at this stage. He's a freshman who only had to block shots in high school. It's understandable. He does appear to have great defensive awareness (this is evidenced in his steal per game), but it hasn't taken hold across the board yet.
His rebounding, though, is another problem. He is not engaged on the glass, nor does he ever appear to be. Ward is averaging just 5.9 boards per game, which is low for someone of his stature at this level. How would that translate to the pro game?
(Not well.)
These aren't to say that any of these players won't succeed at the pro level. They are all capable. We were asked a question; we answered it.
3) Which team, or teams, do you think will improve the most from here in regards to their poll or quad daily rankings?
This one is difficult. For all the movement going up and down the rankings, to be honest, there has been very little movement of teams in and out of the rankings. Going back to the preseaosn, the ones jettisoned out would be Arizona, Michigan State, Arkansas, Texas, UCLA, Cincinnati, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. While Arizona took a major tumble (falling from 14 to out, which is the biggest fall anyone has made), they're still on the Next line. Arkansas is sitting right there, too.
So, who could climb up. Let's take a look.
1) Memphis. This is, in part, because of their weak conference. They have Cincinnati and Witchita State to combat in the AAC. They should be able to beat both of those, and continue a long winning streak heading into conference tournament play. They have the talent to get to the Final Four. They seem to have put it together, and could be in for a major rise up our poll. They sort of have already started it.
Gonzaga. The same holds true for the Zags, who can dominate a conference that is lean on teams capable of stopping them. We don't think they'll move too far up in our poll, because of what's ahead of them (we did have Memphis ranked 8th in our preseason poll, for the sake of argument). But they could move up if teams cannibalize one another in conference play, as they have done so far.
Stanford. They seem to be a two-steps forward, one-step back team. The Pac-12 has a lot of quality wins to be gained, and the Cardinal have the right recipe of a team capable of making a run. We believe they are capable of making a run to, say, the top 12. Given they are 25th, and the hierarchy (or the teams at the table) has been established for some time, we would consider that to be a pretty good run.
UNLV. They beat San Diego State, and don't have many losses left on their schedule (probably SDSU on the road, and New Mexico, are the only ones).
The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season
Day 81
1. Indiana (17-1, 1)
2. Kentucky (18-0, 2)
3. Duke (15-3, 5)
4. Kansas (15-3, 6)
5. Connecticut (18-3, 3)
6. Virginia (16-2, 4)
7. North Carolina (16-4, 7)
8. Southern Cal (16-3, 8)
9. NC State (16-2, 9)
10. Missouri (16-2, 10)
11. Washington (15-3, 13)
12. Colorado (16-3, 11)
13. Illinois (14-4, 12)
14. Florida (12-4, 16)
15. Utah (13-4, 19)
16. Maryland (14-4, 18)
17. San Diego State (17-2, 15)
18. Villanova (14-4, 21)
19. Memphis (15-4, 22)
20. Purdue (13-6, 17)
21. Gonzaga (15-2, 24)
22. Pittsburgh (12-6, 20)
23. Iowa State (13-4, NR)
24. Ohio State (14-4, NR)
25. Stanford (14-6, 24)
Next: UNLV, Arizona, Georgetown, Syracuse, St. John's
Dropped Out: Arizona (14), Georgetown (25)