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Comey · 05-07-2020, 08:12 PM

JBL | The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season (Day 97): Bracketology III: A Deeper Mediocirty

It's been 28 days.

Thus, it's time for a new Bracketology.

Our third Bracketology--the first one was on Day 41, the second on Day 69--comes with some more questions than answers. When we originally picked the potential field, we thought, oh, this is the most definitive so far. There has been separation between the haves and have nots.

That is true. The problem, though, is that there don't seem to be enough haves. Don't believe us? Take a look:

Last Four Byes: UMsss, Bucknell, Pitt, Tennessee

UMass (15-6) is 9-0 against Q3/4. They are 0-2 against Q1, which is not obviously not ideal. Their RPI/SOS is 45th due to a better-than-advertised A-10 conference. That's about the only thing they have going for them.

PItt is (14-7) 44th in RPI/SOS, and 3-6 in Q1 games. They have faltered some in the rugged ACC, and are trending considerably down.

Tennessee (16-7), meanwhile, is 51st in RPI/SOS. They are 0-6 in Q1 games, and 5-7 in Q/2 games. We aren't delighted about this pick whatsoever...but once you see the play-in games, you'll understand why they're here.

Bucknell, meanwhile, is interesting. The Bison(16-6) 55th in RPI/SOS, sitting in a three-way tie with Navy. The Patriot's only chance at getting multiple teams in the CJBL Tournament, something nobody would have thought before the season, is if Bucknell does not win the conference. Neither Lafayette nor Navy have the resume to gain an at-large bid. Navy is a 14-seed in this bracket, while Bucknell, the at-large, is three rungs above them.

As we said, this is a strange, strange bracket.

Play-in Games: Boston College vs St. Mary's, Iowa vs Texas

What in the world do you do with Boston College (15-5), a team that is somehow 8-3 in the ACC, but is 91st in RPI/SOS? The 8-3 in-conference has us mystified, and really, is what is putting them on this line. This is as speculative a pick as we could make, and wouldn't push back to most arguments against their inclusion. Their play in the ACC is really what has given us pause here.

Iowa (11-10) is in the same boat, though worse. They're 1-10 in Q1 games, but have the 24th RPI/SOS. We do need to say that RPI/SOS isn't the end-all-be-all here, but it does hold considerable weight.

They get the Spiderman meme in the other play-in game in Texas, because they're 22nd in RPI/SOS, and 1-9 in Q1 team.

St. Mary's has had a nice season. They beat Gonzaga recently, and got Washington earlier in the year.

That's really all we can say about those teams.

First Four Out: Texas A&M, Georgia Tech, Washington State, Penn State
Next Four Out: Wisconsin, Sai Diego, Dayton, Cincinnati

East

State of the Top Seed: We have Duke here, which is a full circle situation. The top seeds, across the board, are up for discussion. You can make an argument for seven teams, and to us, only Indiana and maybe Kentucky stick out as surefire #1s (but even then, that is only us). The ACC logjam will continue to be exactly that for the rest of the season. Duke, being the most talented, currently gets the nod, as their win at Virginia is the best ACC win so far this season. They aren't firmly a top seed, but right now, we have them getting one of the 16-seed play-ins. So, there's that.

Buy: Florida, maybe? We don't really like anyone in the bracket at the moment. UConn already lost to Duke, and showed how reliant they are on Jack Dawkins (or their coaching staff got too cute against Seton Hall). This bracket is chock full of what-ifs and uncertaintites at the moment.

Sell: UConn. They're the 2 seed here, but they have not looked right for a few weeks now. If a team were primed for a drop, this is the one.

Other notes: Ohio State is starting to round into form, and could be rising. We still aren't really sure what they are, and their RPI/SOS is 39th...St. John's has probably locked up a spot at this point. Their RPI/SOS is 29th, they could still accumulate some bad losses, but their conference strength, and the fact that there are just so many teams with question marks below them, makes us think that St. John's is as locky as one can get.

East Region

1) Duke (ACC) vs 16 Charlotte (CUSA)/Florida Gulf Coast (A-Sun)
8) St. Joseph's (A-10) vs 9) St. John's (At-Large)

5) Purdue (At-Large) vs 12) Fairfield (MAAC)
4) Florida (At-Large) vs 13) Hartford (AEC)

3) Virginia (At-Large) vs 14) Bryant (NEC)
6) Ohio State (At-Large) vs 11) Bucknell (At-Large)

7) Iowa State (At-Large) vs 10) Drexel (CAA)
2) Connecticut (Big East) vs 15) Penn (Ivy)

South

State of the Top Seed: Kentucky is in the debate with Missouri, North Carolina, Kansas and UConn for the back half of the #1 seeds. What really hurts Kentucky is that they are 12th in RPI/SOS. (Also losing by 31 to a conference rival, no matter how good Florida is.) The Wildcats only have the one loss, and have beaten quality teams, including UConn and Missouri, that is true. But that RPI/SOS leaves us wanting. We are high on the Wildcats, but we know some others are not.

Buy: Creighton. THey're rising--the six on the 6-line as of today--and might just be the third-best team in the Big East. Their RPI/SOS isn't great (46th), but they continue to win (17-7 as of this writing). They should be firmly in the field at this point, but can accumulate some more quality wins--they own one over UConn recently--they're a hard team to place, but this is where we have them right now.

Sell: Memphis. The SMU loss reminded us that Memphis (19-5), while being the hottest team in the country up until that loss, is also the team that started out 4-4, losing to teams that appear to be better. The Tigers are 53rd in RPI/SOS, behind teams like Georgia Tech, Washington State, and Lousville. There's really only Cincinnati and Wichita State in the conference that can add to Memphis' quality wins total, and either one of them would give them any real kind of a bump.

Other Notes: This top four--Kentucky, UNC, Maryland, NC State--might be the toughest of any region. Add in Stanford, and holy cow...Richmond is one of two at-large teams from the A-10 to make it into this field. We'll get to the other later; Richmond sits as a 9 seed...Murray State, one of the most dangerous lower-seed teams, found their way in at 13 here.

South Region

1) Kentucky (SEC) vs 16) East TN State (Southern)
8) Arizona (At-Large) vs 9) Richmond (At-Large)

5) Stanford (At-Large) vs 12) Northwestern State (Southland)
4) NC State (At-Large) vs 13) Murray State (OVC)

3) Maryland (At-Large) vs 14) Navy (Patriot)
6) Creighton (At-Large) vs 11) Boston College/St. Mary's

7) Memphis (AAC) vs 10) Pittsburgh (At-Large)
2) North Carolina (At-Large) vs 15) Morgan State (MEAC)

Midwest

State of the Top Seed: Indiana has a rather polarizing resume. They have sat #1 in our ranking for the last two months. They are atop the best conference in the nation. And yet, their RPI/SOS is only 21st, just ahead of...ahem, Texas, and behind Utah and Kansas State. The culprit is the amount of Q4 games Indiana has (they hae four). Contrast that to a team like USC, who has none. They still sit as our top seed, but in the future, don't schedule Evansville or North Carolina A&T. Those games could very well cost them a top seed.

Buy: USC. The Men of Troy want you to believe their sky is falling. They're 19-4, and 14th in RPI/SOS (ahead of UConn and Kansas). They keep winning, and them at the 3 line may be too low. They could win any region they play in, and while beating Kansas and USC is a tall order for anyone, we thought the Trojans to be one of only a few legit national title contenders before the season. We haven't gone away from that thinking.

Sell: Colorado. The Buffaloes (19-4) have been fantastic all season (something we predicted, for the record). Why sell now? It could be the drain of a Pac-12 that has continually high-intensity games. So why buy on USC and sell Colorado? We simply think USC is better situated to handle the strain, while Colorado may not be. We could easily sell Michigan State or New Mexico here, but we just have a strange hunch about Colorado faltering down the stretch.

Other Notes: Michigan State has turned themselves around, and find themselves as a 7-seed as of this writing...Arkansas has flown under the radar for much of the past two months. Right now, we have them a five-seed. They have played an incredibly tough schedule, as is evidenced by their 3-8 mark against Q1 teams, and their fifth-best RPI/SOS mark...New Mexico, the current leaders of the MWC, sits as a six-seed. They are one of three MWC teams in the field...UMass, the third team of the A-10, find themselves in at the 10-seed. The Minutemen are 45rh in RPI/SOS, and while we feel...unsure?...about their inclusion, they have earned their spot here. We did feel like they were the preseason favorites in the conference.

Midwest Region

1) Indiana (BIg Ten) vs 16) Idaho (Big Sky)/Southern (SWAC)
8) Kansas State (At-Large) vs 9) Marquette (At-Large)

5) Arkansas (At-Large) vs 12) Loyola-Chicago (MVC)
4) Colorado (At-Large) vs 13) Illinois-Chicago (Horizon)

3) Southern Cal (At-Large) vs 14) Gardner-Webb (Big South)
6) New Mexico (MWC) vs 11) Tennessee (At-Large)

7) Michigan State (At-Large) vs 10) UMass (At-Large)
2) Kansas (Big XII) vs 15) Akron (MAC)

West

State of the Top Seed: Missouri is third in RPI/SOS. We know we've rated them lower than they deserve, especially lately. Part of that is the nature of our poll and the wish for gradual, not overreactive, change. The one team we feel like we've short-changed there is with the Tigers (20-3). They're 9-3 in Q1 games, 15-3 in Q1/2. They are quite deserving of being on the top line...maybe as the 2-seed. Right now, we have them as the #3 overall.

Buy: Illinois. They just handed Indiana their first loss in Big Ten play. The Fightin Illini (18-4) are fourth in RPI/SOS, and an argument could easily be made that they are worthy of replacing Indiana on that top line. We have them as a 3-seed, mainly due to Washington being a (currently hypothetical) conference champ. The argument could be made that Illinois and Washington should switch. The Fightin Illini are 6-4 in Q1 games, 12-4 in Q1/2, and 0-0 in Q4. That's an important stat, as Illinois sits eighth overall in SOS.

Sell: San Diego State. We haven't bought their stock all year. They are third in the MWC at the moment. Their RPI/SOS is 74th, and their 21-2 record is based on going 16-0 against Q3/4. They are 0-2 against Q1 teams. Truth be told, perhaps we should correct ourselves on SDSU in our poll.

Other Notes: Syracuse has flowed under the radar all year, and sits as a 6-seed. The Orange are perhaps the scariest mid-seed a team could see. They are 18th in RPI/SOS, and 5-7 in Q1 games. We just like the cut of their jib...Utah as a four-seed is an incredible achievement to the Utes, though we wonder if there's a late-season swoon coming. They get Utah at home, but also have to travel to Oregon State, Arizona, Washington, and a sneaky tough Arizona State club. The Utes have it tough down the stretch.

West Region

1) Missouri (At-Large) vs 16) Morgan State (MEAC)
8) UNLV (At-Large) vs 9) Georgetown (At-Large)

5) Villanova (At-Large) vs 12) Long Beach State (Big West)
4) Utah (At-Large) vs 13) Utah Valley (WAC)

3) Illinois (At-Large) vs 14) Texas State (Sun Belt)
6) Syracuse (At-Large) vs 11) Iowa/Texas

7) Gonzaga (WCC) vs San Diego State (MWC)
2) Washington (Pac-12) vs 15) South Dakota State (Summit)

The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season
Day 97

1. Indiana (19-2, 1)
2. Kansas (19-3, 2)
3. Kentucky (21-1, 3)
4. Duke (20-4, 4)
5. North Carolina (19-4, 5)
6. Virginia (18-3, 6)
7. Connecticut (21-4, 7)
8. Missouri (20-3, 8)
9. NC State (17-4, 9)
10. Illinois (18-4, 10)
11. Southern Cal (19-4, 11)
12. Colorado (19-4, 12)
13. Washington (19-4, 13)
14. Florida (16-4, 14)
15. Maryland (17-6, 17)
16. Villanova (17-6, 18)
17. Ohio State (17-4, 20)
18. New Mexico (17-5, 24)
19. Memphis (19-5, 15)
20. San Diego State (21-2, 16)
21. Utah (16-6, 22)
22. Gonzaga (18-3, 19)
23. Stanford (17-8, 21)
24. Purdue (15-7, 23)
25. UNLV (18-4, NR)
Next: Creighton, Iowa State, Pitt, Georgetown, Arkansas
Dropped Out: Iowa State (25)

05-07-2020, 08:12 PM	#23
Comey College Starter Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: CT via PA via CA via PA	The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season (Day 97): Bracketology III: A Deeper Mediocrity JBL \| The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season (Day 97): Bracketology III: A Deeper Mediocirty It's been 28 days. Thus, it's time for a new Bracketology. Our third Bracketology--the first one was on Day 41, the second on Day 69--comes with some more questions than answers. When we originally picked the potential field, we thought, oh, this is the most definitive so far. There has been separation between the haves and have nots. That is true. The problem, though, is that there don't seem to be enough haves. Don't believe us? Take a look: Last Four Byes: UMsss, Bucknell, Pitt, Tennessee UMass (15-6) is 9-0 against Q3/4. They are 0-2 against Q1, which is not obviously not ideal. Their RPI/SOS is 45th due to a better-than-advertised A-10 conference. That's about the only thing they have going for them. PItt is (14-7) 44th in RPI/SOS, and 3-6 in Q1 games. They have faltered some in the rugged ACC, and are trending considerably down. Tennessee (16-7), meanwhile, is 51st in RPI/SOS. They are 0-6 in Q1 games, and 5-7 in Q/2 games. We aren't delighted about this pick whatsoever...but once you see the play-in games, you'll understand why they're here. Bucknell, meanwhile, is interesting. The Bison(16-6) 55th in RPI/SOS, sitting in a three-way tie with Navy. The Patriot's only chance at getting multiple teams in the CJBL Tournament, something nobody would have thought before the season, is if Bucknell does not win the conference. Neither Lafayette nor Navy have the resume to gain an at-large bid. Navy is a 14-seed in this bracket, while Bucknell, the at-large, is three rungs above them. As we said, this is a strange, strange bracket. Play-in Games: Boston College vs St. Mary's, Iowa vs Texas What in the world do you do with Boston College (15-5), a team that is somehow 8-3 in the ACC, but is 91st in RPI/SOS? The 8-3 in-conference has us mystified, and really, is what is putting them on this line. This is as speculative a pick as we could make, and wouldn't push back to most arguments against their inclusion. Their play in the ACC is really what has given us pause here. Iowa (11-10) is in the same boat, though worse. They're 1-10 in Q1 games, but have the 24th RPI/SOS. We do need to say that RPI/SOS isn't the end-all-be-all here, but it does hold considerable weight. They get the Spiderman meme in the other play-in game in Texas, because they're 22nd in RPI/SOS, and 1-9 in Q1 team. St. Mary's has had a nice season. They beat Gonzaga recently, and got Washington earlier in the year. That's really all we can say about those teams. First Four Out: Texas A&M, Georgia Tech, Washington State, Penn State Next Four Out: Wisconsin, Sai Diego, Dayton, Cincinnati East State of the Top Seed: We have Duke here, which is a full circle situation. The top seeds, across the board, are up for discussion. You can make an argument for seven teams, and to us, only Indiana and maybe Kentucky stick out as surefire #1s (but even then, that is only us). The ACC logjam will continue to be exactly that for the rest of the season. Duke, being the most talented, currently gets the nod, as their win at Virginia is the best ACC win so far this season. They aren't firmly a top seed, but right now, we have them getting one of the 16-seed play-ins. So, there's that. Buy: Florida, maybe? We don't really like anyone in the bracket at the moment. UConn already lost to Duke, and showed how reliant they are on Jack Dawkins (or their coaching staff got too cute against Seton Hall). This bracket is chock full of what-ifs and uncertaintites at the moment. Sell: UConn. They're the 2 seed here, but they have not looked right for a few weeks now. If a team were primed for a drop, this is the one. Other notes: Ohio State is starting to round into form, and could be rising. We still aren't really sure what they are, and their RPI/SOS is 39th...St. John's has probably locked up a spot at this point. Their RPI/SOS is 29th, they could still accumulate some bad losses, but their conference strength, and the fact that there are just so many teams with question marks below them, makes us think that St. John's is as locky as one can get. East Region 1) Duke (ACC) vs 16 Charlotte (CUSA)/Florida Gulf Coast (A-Sun) 8) St. Joseph's (A-10) vs 9) St. John's (At-Large) 5) Purdue (At-Large) vs 12) Fairfield (MAAC) 4) Florida (At-Large) vs 13) Hartford (AEC) 3) Virginia (At-Large) vs 14) Bryant (NEC) 6) Ohio State (At-Large) vs 11) Bucknell (At-Large) 7) Iowa State (At-Large) vs 10) Drexel (CAA) 2) Connecticut (Big East) vs 15) Penn (Ivy) South State of the Top Seed: Kentucky is in the debate with Missouri, North Carolina, Kansas and UConn for the back half of the #1 seeds. What really hurts Kentucky is that they are 12th in RPI/SOS. (Also losing by 31 to a conference rival, no matter how good Florida is.) The Wildcats only have the one loss, and have beaten quality teams, including UConn and Missouri, that is true. But that RPI/SOS leaves us wanting. We are high on the Wildcats, but we know some others are not. Buy: Creighton. THey're rising--the six on the 6-line as of today--and might just be the third-best team in the Big East. Their RPI/SOS isn't great (46th), but they continue to win (17-7 as of this writing). They should be firmly in the field at this point, but can accumulate some more quality wins--they own one over UConn recently--they're a hard team to place, but this is where we have them right now. Sell: Memphis. The SMU loss reminded us that Memphis (19-5), while being the hottest team in the country up until that loss, is also the team that started out 4-4, losing to teams that appear to be better. The Tigers are 53rd in RPI/SOS, behind teams like Georgia Tech, Washington State, and Lousville. There's really only Cincinnati and Wichita State in the conference that can add to Memphis' quality wins total, and either one of them would give them any real kind of a bump. Other Notes: This top four--Kentucky, UNC, Maryland, NC State--might be the toughest of any region. Add in Stanford, and holy cow...Richmond is one of two at-large teams from the A-10 to make it into this field. We'll get to the other later; Richmond sits as a 9 seed...Murray State, one of the most dangerous lower-seed teams, found their way in at 13 here. South Region 1) Kentucky (SEC) vs 16) East TN State (Southern) 8) Arizona (At-Large) vs 9) Richmond (At-Large) 5) Stanford (At-Large) vs 12) Northwestern State (Southland) 4) NC State (At-Large) vs 13) Murray State (OVC) 3) Maryland (At-Large) vs 14) Navy (Patriot) 6) Creighton (At-Large) vs 11) Boston College/St. Mary's 7) Memphis (AAC) vs 10) Pittsburgh (At-Large) 2) North Carolina (At-Large) vs 15) Morgan State (MEAC) Midwest State of the Top Seed: Indiana has a rather polarizing resume. They have sat #1 in our ranking for the last two months. They are atop the best conference in the nation. And yet, their RPI/SOS is only 21st, just ahead of...ahem, Texas, and behind Utah and Kansas State. The culprit is the amount of Q4 games Indiana has (they hae four). Contrast that to a team like USC, who has none. They still sit as our top seed, but in the future, don't schedule Evansville or North Carolina A&T. Those games could very well cost them a top seed. Buy: USC. The Men of Troy want you to believe their sky is falling. They're 19-4, and 14th in RPI/SOS (ahead of UConn and Kansas). They keep winning, and them at the 3 line may be too low. They could win any region they play in, and while beating Kansas and USC is a tall order for anyone, we thought the Trojans to be one of only a few legit national title contenders before the season. We haven't gone away from that thinking. Sell: Colorado. The Buffaloes (19-4) have been fantastic all season (something we predicted, for the record). Why sell now? It could be the drain of a Pac-12 that has continually high-intensity games. So why buy on USC and sell Colorado? We simply think USC is better situated to handle the strain, while Colorado may not be. We could easily sell Michigan State or New Mexico here, but we just have a strange hunch about Colorado faltering down the stretch. Other Notes: Michigan State has turned themselves around, and find themselves as a 7-seed as of this writing...Arkansas has flown under the radar for much of the past two months. Right now, we have them a five-seed. They have played an incredibly tough schedule, as is evidenced by their 3-8 mark against Q1 teams, and their fifth-best RPI/SOS mark...New Mexico, the current leaders of the MWC, sits as a six-seed. They are one of three MWC teams in the field...UMass, the third team of the A-10, find themselves in at the 10-seed. The Minutemen are 45rh in RPI/SOS, and while we feel...unsure?...about their inclusion, they have earned their spot here. We did feel like they were the preseason favorites in the conference. Midwest Region 1) Indiana (BIg Ten) vs 16) Idaho (Big Sky)/Southern (SWAC) 8) Kansas State (At-Large) vs 9) Marquette (At-Large) 5) Arkansas (At-Large) vs 12) Loyola-Chicago (MVC) 4) Colorado (At-Large) vs 13) Illinois-Chicago (Horizon) 3) Southern Cal (At-Large) vs 14) Gardner-Webb (Big South) 6) New Mexico (MWC) vs 11) Tennessee (At-Large) 7) Michigan State (At-Large) vs 10) UMass (At-Large) 2) Kansas (Big XII) vs 15) Akron (MAC) West State of the Top Seed: Missouri is third in RPI/SOS. We know we've rated them lower than they deserve, especially lately. Part of that is the nature of our poll and the wish for gradual, not overreactive, change. The one team we feel like we've short-changed there is with the Tigers (20-3). They're 9-3 in Q1 games, 15-3 in Q1/2. They are quite deserving of being on the top line...maybe as the 2-seed. Right now, we have them as the #3 overall. Buy: Illinois. They just handed Indiana their first loss in Big Ten play. The Fightin Illini (18-4) are fourth in RPI/SOS, and an argument could easily be made that they are worthy of replacing Indiana on that top line. We have them as a 3-seed, mainly due to Washington being a (currently hypothetical) conference champ. The argument could be made that Illinois and Washington should switch. The Fightin Illini are 6-4 in Q1 games, 12-4 in Q1/2, and 0-0 in Q4. That's an important stat, as Illinois sits eighth overall in SOS. Sell: San Diego State. We haven't bought their stock all year. They are third in the MWC at the moment. Their RPI/SOS is 74th, and their 21-2 record is based on going 16-0 against Q3/4. They are 0-2 against Q1 teams. Truth be told, perhaps we should correct ourselves on SDSU in our poll. Other Notes: Syracuse has flowed under the radar all year, and sits as a 6-seed. The Orange are perhaps the scariest mid-seed a team could see. They are 18th in RPI/SOS, and 5-7 in Q1 games. We just like the cut of their jib...Utah as a four-seed is an incredible achievement to the Utes, though we wonder if there's a late-season swoon coming. They get Utah at home, but also have to travel to Oregon State, Arizona, Washington, and a sneaky tough Arizona State club. The Utes have it tough down the stretch. West Region 1) Missouri (At-Large) vs 16) Morgan State (MEAC) 8) UNLV (At-Large) vs 9) Georgetown (At-Large) 5) Villanova (At-Large) vs 12) Long Beach State (Big West) 4) Utah (At-Large) vs 13) Utah Valley (WAC) 3) Illinois (At-Large) vs 14) Texas State (Sun Belt) 6) Syracuse (At-Large) vs 11) Iowa/Texas 7) Gonzaga (WCC) vs San Diego State (MWC) 2) Washington (Pac-12) vs 15) South Dakota State (Summit) The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season Day 97 1. Indiana (19-2, 1) 2. Kansas (19-3, 2) 3. Kentucky (21-1, 3) 4. Duke (20-4, 4) 5. North Carolina (19-4, 5) 6. Virginia (18-3, 6) 7. Connecticut (21-4, 7) 8. Missouri (20-3, 8) 9. NC State (17-4, 9) 10. Illinois (18-4, 10) 11. Southern Cal (19-4, 11) 12. Colorado (19-4, 12) 13. Washington (19-4, 13) 14. Florida (16-4, 14) 15. Maryland (17-6, 17) 16. Villanova (17-6, 18) 17. Ohio State (17-4, 20) 18. New Mexico (17-5, 24) 19. Memphis (19-5, 15) 20. San Diego State (21-2, 16) 21. Utah (16-6, 22) 22. Gonzaga (18-3, 19) 23. Stanford (17-8, 21) 24. Purdue (15-7, 23) 25. UNLV (18-4, NR) Next: Creighton, Iowa State, Pitt, Georgetown, Arkansas Dropped Out: Iowa State (25) __________________