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Comey · 05-07-2020, 08:15 PM

JBL | The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season (Day 113): Going on a Bubble Watch Cruise

This is a Bubble Watch. We didn't have our spreadsheet for most of this column. So we're doing the best we can with what we have. If you have issues, write them down, ball them up, and eat them. Taste them and digest them.

(Or tell us about them. That probably seems like a better option. We don't want you eating paper, cardboard, whatever you're using to write on. And besides, we're spitballing here. Don't take this seriously.)

ACC

Locks: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, NC State
Likely In: Pitt
Work To Do: Boston College, Syracuse

You'd think BC would be in the likely in column, especially after beating UNC, but we're still skeptical about how they hold up against other at-large teams. (Okay, so this is a weak field for at-larges, so we're likely splitting hairs here. Winning at NC State would likely cinch it, but we'd settle for winning at FSU and sweeping both games against Louisville and Pitt at home.

Syracuse, meanwhile, was firmly in, before imploding. Losing six of their last eight, including games against Wake Forest and Clemson, have likely squashed all hopes of getting in. They'd have to go on a series run at this point, starting with beating Virginia at home on 113. A run to the ACC semifinals is also a likely requirement.

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State
Likely In: None
Work To Do: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

The Sooners' loss to UCLA, once thought to be good, is definitely not now. The same goes for the Texas loss, as the Longhorns never found any real footing. Their best road win is looking like it's at Baylor, which definitely doesn't bode well for their chances. Their only real chance is to sweep the rest of the regular season That includes winning in Ames, and beating Kansas to close the season.

Oklahoma State lost by 32 at Texas on Day 73. They also lost at Baylor by 19. It probably doesn't matter what they do the rest of the regular season. They don't own a single good win in the conference.

Big East

Locks: Connecticut, Villanova, Georgetown
Likely In: Creighton, St. John's
Work To Do: Marquette

The loss at St. John's was a killer for for the Golden Eagles, who could have really used that win. They have two more chances at good wins, on the road against Creighton, and at home against Georgetown. They did beat Georgetown on the road earlier this season. But it's likely that there are too many bad losses (Xavier, Seton Hall, UCLA, Minnesota) to doom them at this point.

Big Ten

Locks: Indiana, Illinois, Maryland, Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State
Likely In: None
Work To Do: ...

Michigan and Iowa are likely on life support. In the case of Michigan, it's likely their lsat rites have been read.

Pac-12

Locks: Washington, Colorado, USC, Utah, Stanford
Likely In: Arizona
Work To Do: Washington State?

Arizona has picked itself up off the canvas and managed to string together four straight wins, including ones over Utah and USC. We don't think they'll beat Colorado on the road, but at this point, it does not really matter. A loss at Cal would not be helfpul, as they already have bad losses to UCLA and Oregon State on their resume. That said, we welcome Arizona back into our good graces.

Washington State...?: Nah, they aren't in. They have less of a chance as Iowa and Michigan. We needed something to fill in this space.

SEC

Locks: Kentucky, Missouri, Florida, Arkansas
Likely In: LSU?
Work To Do: Tennessee

LSU losing at Georgia on 110 was a major hit to what had been a solid resurgence in a top-loaded conference. They did have a bad loss to a Notre Dame team that has been worse than advertised, but that had been largely forgotten until the Georgia game. The Tigers still have Kentucky on their schedule, though that's at home. A home game against Alabama is now pivotal, as that's really their only other chance at a guaranteed okay win. Only potential bad losses remain, including games at Auburn and Mississippi. Their likely in is due to the dearth of at-large teams (as you can see from our list).

Tennessee, meanwhile, could rip LSU's hearts out with a win at home on 113. It's a game the Volunteers need; they share the Georgia loss (Day 76), and have already lost once to LSU. A loss at A&M and a Georgia Tech team that peaked two months ago has taken the air of of their at-large sails. The Volunteers can still right the shp, though their schedule is absolutely daunting, albeit full of opportunity. They close with LSU, Arkansas, at Florida, and home against Missouri, before going to South Carolina. Four potential good wins, one potential bad loss.

A-10

Locks: None
Likely In: St. Joseph's, Dayton
Work To Do: Richmond, Rhode Island, UMass

St. Joseph's has been considered a top-tier team all season is, what, at UMass? Home against Dayton? The Hawks don't even go to Dayton for a return trip. The Fightin Jesuits are going to be one of the most scrutinized teams come selection time. For their sake, they should win the conference.

For as good as we've found Dayton to be over the past month, their resume is also lacking. Losing at home to Northern Illinois is a terrible loss. Losing at George Mason, and losing by 28 to your main competition for the conference regular season title is also tough to sell. We know that was a month and a half ago, but the point still remains. Winning out will do nothing but stay the course for them as a team on the come. Losing any, especially at Fordham or St. Bonaventure, could sink them.

You could say the same for the three teams with work left to do. Richmond has games against UMass and Dayton, but nothing that really sticks out to the committee. Rhode Island has a loss at George Mason and at home against Montana. The Minutemen lost to Butler, at George Washington, and lost at home to St. Joe's. We get how good they have been, but good teams hold serve at home in-conference. Their best win is at Rhode Island. That's not going to get it done.

AAC

Locks: Memphis
Likely In: Cincinnati?
Work To Do: Cincinnati?

There is an interesting dilemma regarding the Bearcats. They scheduled virgorously OOC, which is to be commended. They also had a lot of turnover and took awhile to come together, resulting in a 2-7 start. They have just two losses since them, including beating Ohio State. Those two losses are ones they absolutely needed to have, though: at Georgetown (by 13), and at home to Memphis. Their next best win is against Dayton. Their resume just doesn't speak as a team worthy of inclusion.

But how much should be they docked for their conference? It absolutely is not their fault that they play in a garbage conference. But it is their fault that they won games they did schedule. There is another bad loss to Xavier on there.

So...in our view, they are best served winning the conference tournament. Anything less than the championship game would probably guarantee their denial of a bid this year. It's the bed they've made with their performance, not their scheduling. Now climb out or lie in it.

MWC

Locks: None
Likely In: SDSU, UNLV
Work To Do: New Mexico?, Wyoming

SDSU crushed Creighton and handed New Mexico their only conference loss. They have also lost to the other three teams vying for the regular season championship in the MWC. Their last three are at home to henchmen teams, so they should easily win those.

UNLV's best win has proven to be against SDSU, one they gave back by splitting. They'll get a chance to avenge a loss to New Mexico on 118. Other than that, they don't have anything worth writing about.

It's strange that a team 15-1 in a competitive league has work to do. Yet, that's where we are with the Lobos, a team who caught lightning in a bottle and beat two good teams at home. We'll see what they are made of wth the trip to UNLV. Right now, their third-best win is at Wyoming (a deserved 67-46 win), but they have absolutely zero good OOC wins to post. Their only games against tough competition were at Arizona (a 70-65 loss that does look better and better), at home against Georgetown, and a 20-point UCLA loss that has not aged well.

Wyoming really could have done themselves a solid by winning at UNLV on 111. They lost, 77-76, when Nick Cleaver missed what would have been a game-tying free throw with :03 left. Their best win appears to be beating SDSU, followed by beating The Royalty at home to open the season.

We do need to say this now: Whoever does not make the MWC Championship game could be on the outside looking in.

WCC

Locks: Gonzaga
Likely In: Saint Mary's
Work To Do: Pepperdine, San Diego

Saint Mary's is 38th in RPI/SOS (we didn't have a working spreadsheet for most of this column, we aren't going back now, sorry...deadlines). They have the win over Washington, a tough loss at Stanford, and a split with Gonzaga. They have also lost at BYU and San Francisco, and suffered a 26-point loss to a Memphis team that was struggling at the time. The Gaels likely have a resume to get them in, but it would help to see them win at Pepperdine on 117, then finish off BYU to close the season.

Pepperdine is 66th in RPI/SOS, and is 10-0 in Q3-4 games. They are 0-7 in Q1 games. Tough resume to sell. Beat the Gaels. That's a start.

(Our deadline kept us from discussing the Patriot League. Our apologies.)

The Quad 25, 2028 Season
Day 113

1. Indiana (25-2, 1)
2. Kentucky (25-1, 2)
3. Duke (24-4, 3)
4. Kansas (22-4, 4)
5. Connecticut (26-4, 5)
6. Missouri (23-4, 6)
7. Illinois (23-4, 7)
8. Virginia (23-4, 8)
9. North Carolina (22-6, 9)
10. Colorado (23-5, 10)
11. Washington (23-5, 12)
12. NC State (21-5, 13)
13. Maryland (20-7, 14)
14. Southern Cal (22-6, 11)
15. Florida (19-6, 15)
16. Villanova (20-7, 16)
17. New Mexico (20-6, 17)
18. Memphis (23-5, 18)
19. Utah (20-7, 19)
20. Stanford (20-8, 20)
21. Gonzaga (22-3, 21)
22. Iowa State (19-6, 22)
23. San Diego State (25-3, 23)
24. UNLV (22-5, 25)
25. Pittsburgh (18-7, NR)
Next: Georgetown, Ohio State, Dayton, Bucknell, Drexel
Dropped Out: Ohio State (24)

05-07-2020, 08:15 PM	#26
Comey College Starter Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: CT via PA via CA via PA	The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season (Day 113): Going on a Bubble Watch Cruise JBL \| The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season (Day 113): Going on a Bubble Watch Cruise This is a Bubble Watch. We didn't have our spreadsheet for most of this column. So we're doing the best we can with what we have. If you have issues, write them down, ball them up, and eat them. Taste them and digest them. (Or tell us about them. That probably seems like a better option. We don't want you eating paper, cardboard, whatever you're using to write on. And besides, we're spitballing here. Don't take this seriously.) ACC Locks: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, NC State Likely In: Pitt Work To Do: Boston College, Syracuse You'd think BC would be in the likely in column, especially after beating UNC, but we're still skeptical about how they hold up against other at-large teams. (Okay, so this is a weak field for at-larges, so we're likely splitting hairs here. Winning at NC State would likely cinch it, but we'd settle for winning at FSU and sweeping both games against Louisville and Pitt at home. Syracuse, meanwhile, was firmly in, before imploding. Losing six of their last eight, including games against Wake Forest and Clemson, have likely squashed all hopes of getting in. They'd have to go on a series run at this point, starting with beating Virginia at home on 113. A run to the ACC semifinals is also a likely requirement. Big 12 Locks: Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State Likely In: None Work To Do: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State The Sooners' loss to UCLA, once thought to be good, is definitely not now. The same goes for the Texas loss, as the Longhorns never found any real footing. Their best road win is looking like it's at Baylor, which definitely doesn't bode well for their chances. Their only real chance is to sweep the rest of the regular season That includes winning in Ames, and beating Kansas to close the season. Oklahoma State lost by 32 at Texas on Day 73. They also lost at Baylor by 19. It probably doesn't matter what they do the rest of the regular season. They don't own a single good win in the conference. Big East Locks: Connecticut, Villanova, Georgetown Likely In: Creighton, St. John's Work To Do: Marquette The loss at St. John's was a killer for for the Golden Eagles, who could have really used that win. They have two more chances at good wins, on the road against Creighton, and at home against Georgetown. They did beat Georgetown on the road earlier this season. But it's likely that there are too many bad losses (Xavier, Seton Hall, UCLA, Minnesota) to doom them at this point. Big Ten Locks: Indiana, Illinois, Maryland, Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State Likely In: None Work To Do: ... Michigan and Iowa are likely on life support. In the case of Michigan, it's likely their lsat rites have been read. Pac-12 Locks: Washington, Colorado, USC, Utah, Stanford Likely In: Arizona Work To Do: Washington State? Arizona has picked itself up off the canvas and managed to string together four straight wins, including ones over Utah and USC. We don't think they'll beat Colorado on the road, but at this point, it does not really matter. A loss at Cal would not be helfpul, as they already have bad losses to UCLA and Oregon State on their resume. That said, we welcome Arizona back into our good graces. Washington State...?: Nah, they aren't in. They have less of a chance as Iowa and Michigan. We needed something to fill in this space. SEC Locks: Kentucky, Missouri, Florida, Arkansas Likely In: LSU? Work To Do: Tennessee LSU losing at Georgia on 110 was a major hit to what had been a solid resurgence in a top-loaded conference. They did have a bad loss to a Notre Dame team that has been worse than advertised, but that had been largely forgotten until the Georgia game. The Tigers still have Kentucky on their schedule, though that's at home. A home game against Alabama is now pivotal, as that's really their only other chance at a guaranteed okay win. Only potential bad losses remain, including games at Auburn and Mississippi. Their likely in is due to the dearth of at-large teams (as you can see from our list). Tennessee, meanwhile, could rip LSU's hearts out with a win at home on 113. It's a game the Volunteers need; they share the Georgia loss (Day 76), and have already lost once to LSU. A loss at A&M and a Georgia Tech team that peaked two months ago has taken the air of of their at-large sails. The Volunteers can still right the shp, though their schedule is absolutely daunting, albeit full of opportunity. They close with LSU, Arkansas, at Florida, and home against Missouri, before going to South Carolina. Four potential good wins, one potential bad loss. A-10 Locks: None Likely In: St. Joseph's, Dayton Work To Do: Richmond, Rhode Island, UMass St. Joseph's has been considered a top-tier team all season is, what, at UMass? Home against Dayton? The Hawks don't even go to Dayton for a return trip. The Fightin Jesuits are going to be one of the most scrutinized teams come selection time. For their sake, they should win the conference. For as good as we've found Dayton to be over the past month, their resume is also lacking. Losing at home to Northern Illinois is a terrible loss. Losing at George Mason, and losing by 28 to your main competition for the conference regular season title is also tough to sell. We know that was a month and a half ago, but the point still remains. Winning out will do nothing but stay the course for them as a team on the come. Losing any, especially at Fordham or St. Bonaventure, could sink them. You could say the same for the three teams with work left to do. Richmond has games against UMass and Dayton, but nothing that really sticks out to the committee. Rhode Island has a loss at George Mason and at home against Montana. The Minutemen lost to Butler, at George Washington, and lost at home to St. Joe's. We get how good they have been, but good teams hold serve at home in-conference. Their best win is at Rhode Island. That's not going to get it done. AAC Locks: Memphis Likely In: Cincinnati? Work To Do: Cincinnati? There is an interesting dilemma regarding the Bearcats. They scheduled virgorously OOC, which is to be commended. They also had a lot of turnover and took awhile to come together, resulting in a 2-7 start. They have just two losses since them, including beating Ohio State. Those two losses are ones they absolutely needed to have, though: at Georgetown (by 13), and at home to Memphis. Their next best win is against Dayton. Their resume just doesn't speak as a team worthy of inclusion. But how much should be they docked for their conference? It absolutely is not their fault that they play in a garbage conference. But it is their fault that they won games they did schedule. There is another bad loss to Xavier on there. So...in our view, they are best served winning the conference tournament. Anything less than the championship game would probably guarantee their denial of a bid this year. It's the bed they've made with their performance, not their scheduling. Now climb out or lie in it. MWC Locks: None Likely In: SDSU, UNLV Work To Do: New Mexico?, Wyoming SDSU crushed Creighton and handed New Mexico their only conference loss. They have also lost to the other three teams vying for the regular season championship in the MWC. Their last three are at home to henchmen teams, so they should easily win those. UNLV's best win has proven to be against SDSU, one they gave back by splitting. They'll get a chance to avenge a loss to New Mexico on 118. Other than that, they don't have anything worth writing about. It's strange that a team 15-1 in a competitive league has work to do. Yet, that's where we are with the Lobos, a team who caught lightning in a bottle and beat two good teams at home. We'll see what they are made of wth the trip to UNLV. Right now, their third-best win is at Wyoming (a deserved 67-46 win), but they have absolutely zero good OOC wins to post. Their only games against tough competition were at Arizona (a 70-65 loss that does look better and better), at home against Georgetown, and a 20-point UCLA loss that has not aged well. Wyoming really could have done themselves a solid by winning at UNLV on 111. They lost, 77-76, when Nick Cleaver missed what would have been a game-tying free throw with :03 left. Their best win appears to be beating SDSU, followed by beating The Royalty at home to open the season. We do need to say this now: Whoever does not make the MWC Championship game could be on the outside looking in. WCC Locks: Gonzaga Likely In: Saint Mary's Work To Do: Pepperdine, San Diego Saint Mary's is 38th in RPI/SOS (we didn't have a working spreadsheet for most of this column, we aren't going back now, sorry...deadlines). They have the win over Washington, a tough loss at Stanford, and a split with Gonzaga. They have also lost at BYU and San Francisco, and suffered a 26-point loss to a Memphis team that was struggling at the time. The Gaels likely have a resume to get them in, but it would help to see them win at Pepperdine on 117, then finish off BYU to close the season. Pepperdine is 66th in RPI/SOS, and is 10-0 in Q3-4 games. They are 0-7 in Q1 games. Tough resume to sell. Beat the Gaels. That's a start. (Our deadline kept us from discussing the Patriot League. Our apologies.) The Quad 25, 2028 Season Day 113 1. Indiana (25-2, 1) 2. Kentucky (25-1, 2) 3. Duke (24-4, 3) 4. Kansas (22-4, 4) 5. Connecticut (26-4, 5) 6. Missouri (23-4, 6) 7. Illinois (23-4, 7) 8. Virginia (23-4, 8) 9. North Carolina (22-6, 9) 10. Colorado (23-5, 10) 11. Washington (23-5, 12) 12. NC State (21-5, 13) 13. Maryland (20-7, 14) 14. Southern Cal (22-6, 11) 15. Florida (19-6, 15) 16. Villanova (20-7, 16) 17. New Mexico (20-6, 17) 18. Memphis (23-5, 18) 19. Utah (20-7, 19) 20. Stanford (20-8, 20) 21. Gonzaga (22-3, 21) 22. Iowa State (19-6, 22) 23. San Diego State (25-3, 23) 24. UNLV (22-5, 25) 25. Pittsburgh (18-7, NR) Next: Georgetown, Ohio State, Dayton, Bucknell, Drexel Dropped Out: Ohio State (24) __________________