JBL | The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season (Day 131): A Trip Around the Country in 80,000 Words
Today's top story will assuredly not be Long Beach State.
Not when there's Cornell to discuss.
The Big Red, 11-17 a year ago, are dancing for the first time in school history after defeating Harvard, 81-78 epic to remember. Harvard led for 80% of the game, but by never more than eight (which came early in the first half). Cornell never led by more tha six. There were five lead changes.
The game was tied nine times.
Oh, and overtime, which Harvard forced on Christian Collins' three with :16 left.
Harvard came out of the overtime gate fast, getting a pair of Reggie Howard jumpers around a Cornell Stephen Ward layup, giving the Crimson a 75-73. Then came a combined seven consecutive missed shots and two turnovers, before Ward's shot at the rim tied things up with 1:40 left.
The tension at Lavietes Pavilion for the standing-room only crowd was palpable. You could see it as much as sense it from the crowd. Collins hit a layup falling away as he was fouled by Charlendez Blake, putting Harvard up by two. He missed the free throw, but after Broderick Dixon's turnover, Harvard had the ball, and twenty-seven seconds until they could a ladder and cut themselves down a net.
George Foye was fouled, making 1-2 from the line. Cornell brought the ball up, surpsigingly slowly. It would be seventeen seconds before they would get a shot, and honestly, they didn't really look to set one up right away. Perhaps they figured Harvard would be waiting for that. Perhaps they wanted the best shot possible, and one just didn't present itself.
With eight ticks left on the clock, one did.
Fixon got free on the wing. Eric Haid arranged his seventh assist.
The goat redeemed himself.
Tie game.
Harvard called timeout, and set up a perfect play. They got Ronnie Word free coming off two screens. He turned the corner, and
.......Tarkus Frayer was there. Somehow.
Frayer stole the ball with two seconds left. Time was called with 1.6.
Coaches will tell you they have all sorts of plays for this situation, where the ball sits in your backcourt, and you need to draw up a free shot with less than two seconds to go. The truth is, you can draw up anything you want. If the play is going to happen, it's still a bit of a miracle.
On this play, the goat became the legend.
Dixon came off a baseline screen. THe ball was thrown on a timing route of sorts, assuming that Dixon would be able to get free. If he didn't, the ball would come back to Harvard, no time taken off, with the ball deep in their own end.
Charlendez Blake, who played quarterback in high school, knows a thing or two about timing routes.
"As soon as I saw him start to get around the second screen, I was throwing to the spot," Blake would say after the game. It's a play they have worked on countless times, but had never used in a game.
At this stage of the game...on this particular stage...they broke it out.
Dixon was absolutely free, as Dazon Lewis tried to slip under the screen, but got stuck by Frayer. Dixon curled into the shot on the left wing. He shot it over Collins, a high-arcing shot with tight backspin.
The last shot that net will ever feel is the one that ended its days as simply a basketball net.
It is the one that began its new life as the immortal collection of twine that hangs in a trophy case around Cornell's first Ivy Group championship.
Dixon's six points in the final eight seconds--what turnover?--made him one of three Big Red players with 16 points. Ward and Haid followed along, the latter adding 10 rebounds. Frayer posted 15 points, 11 boards, four assists, four blocks, and two steals. He was named the Ivy Group Player of the Game.
The Crimson were led by Christian Collins' shaky 21 (on 23 shots), to go along with 11 rebounds. Foye added 13 points, seven boards, and ten assists. If Harvard had won this game, it would be Foye who would be today's star.
Today, that star is overshadowed by another shade of Red.
Cornell spent last night dancing.
They'll spend next week doing it, too.
---
Before we get to losses, let's talk about things we can learn today. By the end of today, we will learn...
-...who is taking the Atlantic Sun title, as Florida Gulf Coast and NJIT, both of whom started their seasons 2-8, will fight it out for the conference title. Their arrival to this point is not a surprise, despite the symmetry of their terrible OOC records. They were both considered the best teams in the conference before the season, and they did nothing to dissuade anyone from that thought. Nor, we should point out, did anyone in the conference do anything to dissaude that notion.
In this one, NJIT is more balanced (2nd in offense and defense), but Florida Gulf Coast's defense is one of the most efficient in the nation (15th nationally). They also hit enough threes, and go to the line enough (they led the conference in attempts, but were ninth in the conference in percentage), that they should be able to find enough ways to score.
This is a game of dynamics, as FGCU is led by SF Diamante Pierce and PG Danger Will Robinson, while the HIghlanders go through sophomore center Dameron DeWitt. Whoever gains the offensive strength high ground in this game--whoever is allowed to play at their highest level of comfort--will see their way to the title.
(That's not a fancy way of saying defense wins. It's simply a matter of who is able to dictate the offensive flow of the other team. Still not a way of saying defensive wins. Nope.)
...who from the Mountain West is likeliest to get a CJBL bid. We've said that we think two teams are getting bids from the MWC, that being the conference champ, and whoever else makes the final.
So, in our view, we get two play-in games today, when top-seeded UNLV plays Wyoming, and second-seed New Mexico gets SDSU. The seeding favors UNLV and New Mexico, but we also have to wonder if New Mexico has to win the whole thing to get in. It's strange to write, but we have a nagging feeling that even beating SDSU won't be enough for the lobos.
Nor could it be enough for Wyoming, who is 1-5 against the teams ahead of them. So, this might be an Us vs Them situation. UNLV and SDSU may have a clear advantage here. We sill don't believe any team is simply in yet. But for UNLV and SDSU, they may be punching their dance tickets with wins tonight.
For New Mexico and Wyoming, it really may be title or bust.
...who will take down the Big West. It's down to third-seed UC Santa Barbara (22-11), who took down UC Irvine 83-81, on Christian Muckle's three with :02 left, and UC Riverside (20-11), who took out the giant-slayers, Cal State Northridge, 67-61. If the Gauchos get in, it'll be their third trip to the CJBL, and first since 2024. For the Highlanders, it would be their first.
For the record, UCSB swept UCR this season, a pair of games that were not close.
Can they do it a third time? In the first two games, UC Riverside shot a combined 11-48 from three, which is actually right around where they shot all year. They did shot well below their season average of 41.1% from the field, though. So that could be a start.
....if Bryant is really the King of the Northeast (Conference). The top-seed Bulldogs (25-8) have had a rather interesting dichotomy of games with second-seeded St. Francis (NY) this year. The first game, at St. Francis, was won by the Terriers (20-11), 102-86. We believe that was the highest-scored game this season, whether by a single team or by two teams in a single game. Both halves were played at the same clip: 50-41 and 52-45 (both in favor of St. Francis).
In the return game, St. Francis only scored 55 for the game, as Bryant demolished them, 87-55. The key in that second game was Josh Heidegger, who posted 25 off the bench.
In this one, the scales will tip in Bryant's way, and we expect them to take the title. St. Francis averaged 69.4 ppg (168th, 4th in the conference), which is much, much closer to the 55 they posted than the 102. St. Francis does have the 14th-best defensive efficiency in the nation, but gave up a combined 173 points to Bryant, split nearly evenly across the two games.
The question for the Terriers is, can they catch lightning in a bottle again? Will lightning strike twice in the same bottle? Can they get lightning in the bottle, then strike it again? Can the lightning g...
...we think Bryant's going to win.
...can Murray State survive Cinderella? Austin Peay's magical run through the tournament has reached its final game. The Governors (14-17) have taken out three-seed Morehead State and, last night, beat second-seeded Tennessee-Martin, 71-62.
Tonight, they get the top-seed Racers, who swept them, but also only won their home game 75-72 against the Governors, in a game that was that close.
If the Governors are to pass their own CJBL advancement bill, the number 73 is important. Murray State won the two games, 75-72 and 80-70. If Austin Peay can hold Murray State under 73, we think they win. (For the record, AP's 73.3 ppg put them second in the conference.)
How likely is that? Well, Austin Peay was 349th in oPPG this season. So, not likely.
But it's still possible. So, you gotta like those odds.
...if that loss to Incarnate Word really did set Northwestern State straight. The Demons went 21-1 in the Southland this season, en route to a 27-6 season. They have a close loss to Illinois (which looks GREAT right now. They lost in a close one to North Carolina. They look like a supremely strong small conference team.
Yet, that loss to Incarnate Word, a team who didn't even qualify for the conference tournament (because they went 7-13 in conference, and 10-20 overall) might have saved their season.
Since that 74-68 loss, back on 101, the closest game the Demons have had has been seven points...those being in wins against Texas A&M-CC, and on the road in their only matchup with their opponent tonight, Stephen F. Austin (24-6).
Reports are that Northwestern State started to get a bit big for its britches after starting the conference season 14-0, and that loss to Incarnate Word (of all teams) helped set the Demons straight. A coach's perfect coachspeak is that they secretly wouldn't mind a loss late in the season, to get the team refocused if they are on a good run.
Well, Demon coach Demeane Nelson, you got your wish. By the way, he really got his wish when he got a 750k salary. How is Northwestern State able to afford a $750k coach???
No matter...NW State, with their 32nd-ranked offense (75.0 ppg), should be able to see off the second-seed Lumberjacks, who have a good defense (66.7 oPPG), and great efficency at getting in field goals and threes (tops in conference in FG and 3pt %). There are a lot to like about the Lumberjacks...especially if the Demons come out shooting badly. SFA is 13th in the nation in defensive rebounds. They just don't get their own misses terribly well, and don't go to the line. So if SFA can't shoot themselves, this is probably a wild west shootout with pop guns.
And it's one that still tilts the Demons' way.
...who rules South Dakota? Will it be South Dakota State, the top seed and favorite this evening in the Summit championship, or third-seeded South Dakota? The Jackrabbits (24-5) won the game at South Dakota 93-62, back on 68. The return match was another SDSU win, but it was only 79-78, after a tremendous late run by the Coyotes (12-15).
You read that right. South Dakota was 12-15, 9-7 in the conference. Only one other team has a record over .500, that being 15-11 North Dakota State.
Give us SDSU by 15.
...if Arkansas-Pine Bluff rules the SWAC. The Golden Lions (22-7) face Southern in the SWAC championship. This one is not as clear-cut. Southern (16-14) swept APB this season, including an 89-59 laugher at Southern on 92.
Since then, the Golden Lions have lost just once, an 80-76 game at Grambling (oof). They turend right around and beat the Tigers, 77-71, in the first round ot eh tournament, before taking out Mississippi Valley State in the semifinals.
Now, it's time for the Lions to slay the...Jaguars. There's no real easy way to write that. We don't really know what happened in those two games, neither of which were close, other than Southern shot the ball at a much higher clip than their 44.3% season average (which was still 2nd in the conference). They are quite capable of going off, as their 31st-best offense in the nation dictates. That was only bested by the Golden Lions, who averaged 76.0 ppg, good for 22nd in the nation.
Still, that's only a point apart. If the Golden Lions' 2nd-best-in-conference defense doesn't show up, it'll be three strikes. They're already at fool me twice.
...can Utah Valley cap off their greatest season? The Wolverines (21-8) had only one winning season in their last ten (16-12 two years ago). They were 12-16 a year ago. They now sit a win away from their first-ever trip to the CJBL.
Standing in their way is New Mexico State, a team they swept this year, including a 20-point win at NMSU.
The Wolverins are led by Jvonte Washburn, who posted 15.3/4.6/4.6 this season. The three-year starter has posted at least 15.0 every seaosn, and has nearly 1300 points for his career. His best game of the seaosn came in a 39-point effort on Day 96, 89-69 win over New Mexico State. He had 19-8-8 in the other game.
We feel like this is a runaway Utah Valley win, even if it's tough to beat a team three times. Washburn is the best player in the conference, and the steady influence that will see the Wolverines through. Call it Utah Valley by 12. May you dance all week lo...oh wait, it's Utah. May you nod and move along.
Okay, so Indiana and Kentucky lost. Now what?
The Hoosiers and Wildcats fell in their conference tournaments. The Hoosiers fell to Michigan, 85-81, while Kentucky lost to Texas A&M, 71-58. Does that bump them off the 1-lines?
Yes. Yes it does.
Look, there are too many contenders for the top spot for a team that doesn't win their conference to get top billing. In Kentucky's case, they had a chance at a 1-line even being an at-large, because Missouri. But now, that's not even possible.
Indiana losing is extremely painful for the Hoosiers, because their RPI+SOS is not elite. It's good, but it's 21st in the nation. So, despite our unwavering confidence in them all year (and we need remind you, we were the first ones on their bandwagon, and we will be the last ones off), they really needed that conference title to bolster that already sterling resume, because RPI+SOS does matter to the committee. They go by data, and the truth is, Illinois has a stronger resume than Indiana. That conference title mattered.
And now, it's gone.
They could be relegated to a three-seed. They may be the three in the Midwest, where Illinois may get top billing, which would be really interesting. It is more likely that MIssouri slides to the Midwest and owns that region, with Illinois being shipped out West (or East, if Colorado wins the Pac-12).
This really opens the door up for the Buffaloes to seize a top seed. If they can win the Pac-12 (or USC, perhaps), they could take a top line away from a North Carolina or Kansas. We aren't quite as sold on the Jayhawks as a top seed, even if they are the Big 12 champ (and that is likely). The conference is nowhere near as strong as the Pac-12, and Colorado, USC or Washington make more compelling cases as a top seed than the Jayhawks do.
North Carolina could make a case, but remember, the commitee will probably take conference champions on the top line with a field as muddled as this.
Kentucky is probably solidifed as a two-seed, though this is a befuddling loss, especially at this point of the year. A spot in the semifinals might have been enough to solidify a top seed, even as an at-large. That's how strong that resume was. Now, they are firmly a two, but no higher, in our eyes.
What about for Michigan and A&M? We had Michigan as one of the last teams in, and A&M as a play-in team. For Michigan, that solidifies their titcket. They probably are no higher than a 10-seed, unless they reach the conference final (they'll get the winner of Maryland-Purdue)...but they are in. We think that case is closed now.
For A&M...it might mean they get a bye at the expense of, say, Syracuse, who had a rather befuddling loss of their own, falling to Florida State. The Orange needed to win a game to really solidify their candidacy. Now, they have to hope against hope that nobody unsung comes up in the A-10, or Gonzaga wins the WCC, or Drexel wins the CAA. Because someone winning a conference unexpectedly at this point, especially at the expense of a likely champ who would be a likely at-large team, would doom Syracuse's chances of getting in.
Right now, we think they could be the last at-large aavaiable, epsically now thta the Big Ten is going to get seven teams firmly into the field.
An interesting question is what happens to Oregon State if they win tonight...but we'll wait to see if their magical run continues. For now, the Beavers (18-14, 9-11 regular season) are a great story and nothing more.
Tonight and tomorrow present, most likely, the most interestnig nights of the season, as far as bracketology is concerned. Here's hoping it lives up to that promise.