JBL | The Quadaily 25, 2028 Season (Day 141): Pitt, UCSB and UMass...The (Only) Three Double-Digiteers!
This was, quite possibly, the chalkiest day in CJBL Tournament history.
After the first round, only three double-digit seeds remain in the whole thing: Not a single one is surprising (we picked one of the three, though we went against our gut for the second). But the way one of them happened was quite shocking.
Pittsburgh (10th seed, West) beat San Diego State, 71-69, coming back from a 65-58 deficit with fifty seconds left. This was crazy for a couple of reasons. First, the deficit and time, of course.
The bigger reason it was a crazy comeback is that SDSU didn't roll over.
Darraaja Mallers made one of two free throws with fifty seconds left, pushing the Aztech lead to seven. Jonathan Severado followed with a three, cutting the deficit to four. Pitt fouled immediately, sending Armani Boozer to the line. Boozer made both, stretching the lead back out to six.
Drew Shepartd hit a jumper four seconds later; he then fouled Nazeer Jones, who missed the front end of a one-and-one. Shepard got the rebound, came down the court, pulled up on Isaac Capps, and drilled a three from the right wing.
For Shepard, who finished with a game-high 24 points, it was the first three he made ALL SEASON. He took just four attempts the entire year. This was his first attempt from beyond the arc since Day 68, when he took one against Louisville.
His fourth attempt all year. First make. That's crazy.
Just wait. It somehow gets even crazier.
After that stunning shot, which sent the crowd into a tizzy, Mallers was fouled. He managed to make both free throws. Once again, SDSU had breathing room, though now it was only three points. Pitt called time, and set up their play, a curl to the left wing. Severado caught it and fired, draining it to tie the game.
Well, that is...presumably tie the game.
San Diego State called time, and the refs reviewed the shot. SDSU coaches were adamant Severado was on the line when he went up. Replays appeared to confirm that Severado did, in fact, have a smidgen of his right show on the line when he went up.
But the refs said that angle was not 100% conclusive.
The shot stood. (Seriously, look at the shot chart from this game. Look at Severado's shot with :15 left.)
No matter, though. San Diego State had the ball. And they hadn't wilted under pressure during this comeback. They hit their free throws. They were still in control of things. They also had the hot hand of Mallers and backup point guard Nazeer Jones. The two came off the bench to combine for 10-13 shooting. Mallers finished with a game-high 17. Jones finished with 16.
The entire SDSU starting lineup, meanwhile, had 24 points.
On the final play, the ball was in Jones' hands. The junior point guard was already having the best day of his career, having scored a career-high 16 going into this final possession. And now, the game was called for him to win.
With five seconds left, he began to drive left, crossed to his right. He made contact with Pitt point guard Amadi Akekoya as he stepped back to gain space.
The whisle blew.
Jones pushed off. Offensive foul.
Two seconds left.
In the defense of the ref, it was a clear push-off. Most refs swallow the whistle there. But Jones extended the arm, which is an automatic call by even middle school refs.
Now it was PIt's turn to call time and set up their play; admist all the chaos of the controversial three and now a controversially correct foul, Pitt had to feel like the basketball gods were with them.
So, they drew this play up.
Shepard stationed himself on the opposite low block. As Severado started the play, Shepard spun to the ball-side block, demanding the ball. He didn't get it, so he moved to the corner.
Meanwhile, Adekoya set a backscreen for Jonathan Garnett. That meant Nazeer Jones had to switch to a power forward moving downhill. And leaping, because Severado faked to the corner, making Issac Capps, guarding the inbounder, to drive that way...freeing up a passing lane for an easy lob to Garnett.
There was no biking the bunny. Garnett dunked it home with a 1.4 on the clock. It was a beautiful, brilliant play call.
San Diego State called time. They had an opportunity. Inbounding the ball at mid-court, they called for Issac Capps to flash off a screen to the elbow. That was successful.
What wasn't successful is Capps tripping as he caught the ball. He was called for an inconsequential travel.
Ballgame. The most inexplicable ballgame.
Pitt won in arguably the wildest final minute finish of the season. It took the only three of Drew Shepard's season, a very controversial three by Jonathan Severado, an offensive foul by a reserve guard having the greatest game of his career, and a brilliant decoy...and a travel upon a catch-and-release, tow in the game.
The Aztecs finish the season 30-5; while critics of their OOC schedule say this validates a lower seeding, the season should be considered a success for the Aztecs, and the MWC in general.
Pitt (24-10) will now face 15th-seeded UC Santa Barbara in the second round. The Gauchos took down second-seeded Wahington, 86-75, behind a balanced effort from their starting five. All five players scored in double figures, led by Eddie Knowles' 16. The top player for UC Santa Barbara (24-11) was postman Leighton Legans, who posted 13 points, five boards, and four assists, along with a block. He did this on 5-7 shooting.
It seemed like UCSB shot their shot in the first half, leading by 11 throughout the half. But Washington came back to lead by four at the break, and it seemed like normalcy had returned.
But Washington went cold in the second half, and UCSB took advantage, going on a 16-5 run to lead, 72-61, with 6:14 to go. Washington then went on their own run, getting as close as 3 (78-75) with 1:46 to play.
They would not score again.
The Huskies got hit by the severe injury bug at the wrong time, as they lost leading scorer Daryl Mills (16.4 ppg) in the Pac-12 championship. Mills tried to replace him with Mike Theme-Love, who played admirably, going 7-15 from the field (4-9 from 3), and finishing with 20 points..well above his season average of 4.1.
Truth be told...in this game, UCSB was simply better.
You could point to Washington's defense, which allowed 15 points more than their season average (while scoring just two less than their yearly mark) for the loss. And you could say, well, Theme-Love isn't the defender that Mills is. That is true; Theme-Love is much, much better on defense than Mills, at least by DRtg. Theme-Love rated as the team's second-best defender out of the starters on this day, and their second-best offensive player.
UCSB's ORtg as a team was 126.5. None of the Washington starters reached that mark.
In short, it simply wasn't a good deay for the Huskies, who end their season at 27-8.
The other double-digit seed to reach the second round is UMass, who took down Drexel, 69-66. The Minutemen (23-9) were our pick, something we remained steadfast in throughout all bracket analysis. We felt UMass was seeded too low (the last at-large bye team), while we felt Drexel was ranked a few slots too high.
Make no mistake, the Dragons (28-5) had a fabulous season. But the ninth-best conference in the nation with a team who ravaged it...deserving of a five? We felt they were more on the seven line (which isn't an excuse for not being a 12...UMass not being a 12 is).
The Minutemen shredded the Dragon defense, which ranked 7th in oPPG and 15th in DRtg. They shot 45% from the field, and 45% from three (9-20). They also got to the line 32 times, which is how you absolutely destroy a defense's morale. In reality, this game stopped being a game with 5:48 left, with UMass up 32-26.
Drexel would get no closer than that.
Brandon Saglam led the way with 16 points, on 4-7 shooting (all from 3), while Twice-A-Day Eddie Maye had 15, on 6-10 shooting (3-5 three).
Drexel was led by Chase Ervin, the underoversized center (6'6, 244), who went just 4-7 from the field, but 7-9 from the line, to finish with 15. The rest of the starters had 22.
If Drexel can point to a reason for their loss, it would be their 3-point shooting. They were just 2-20 from deep in this one, and their continued reliance on it, especially as the game widened in differences of score, meant they went long stretches without consistent scoring. They shot just 25 shots inside the arc.
Overall, our bracket was fine (we rank 27th in the tournament challenge thus far). We went 25-7 in the first round, four off the leader (three teams). Ironically, we missed both Pitt and UCSB. We also lost out big on Lafayette, who we had going to the Sweet Sixteen. We also lost Arkansas, who we had busting Virginia and getting to the Sweet 16.
Our other losses were Purdue, Arkansas, Michigan State, and Iowa.
Sweet Sixteen Teams still available: 13/16
Elite Eight Teams Left: 8/8
Final Four Left: 4/4
Second Round Picks
As we detailed in yesterday's column, we'll pick any game where our predictions pre-tournament didn't line up with what's happening. So, we have some games to select.
1) MIssouri vs 9) St. John's (West). This feels like a Missouri blowout, except that Trey Blankeney is out with an injury, and St. John's does St. John's things. These two teams faced each other in New York on Day 48; St. John's emerged as a 60-57 winner. In that one, Brandon Dampier led the way with 16, while Blakekeny had 14. They got a combined 11 points from Joe Morton and Daniel Gibson.
Now, Missouri has the advantage of better placement for the game...but without Blakeney, Mizzou is in a precarious position. It will require a solid game from both Morton and Gibson if they are to see the Johnnies off. Gibson had 23 against Cornell, on 9-15 shooting, 5-10 from three. He has shown he can do the job...the question is, can he do it consistently?
In this one, they get it done...but some might say barely.
Pick: Missouri 71, St. John's 66
4) Utah vs 5) Gonzaga (West: This is a style clash, as Gonzaga's offense and pace will match up with Utah's slow-down efficient grind. Gonzaga does have something going for itself in this game, in that they are the best defensive rebounding team in the nation.
You might think that going up against a team that's third in ORtg in the nation, and fourth in field goal percentage, this isn't that great of an advantage. But Utah is the worst team in the nation in offensive rebounds. Also, the Zags are no slouch on the offensive end...they're 5th in field goals made per game, and 17th in field goal percentage. They're sixth in effetive field goal percentage.
Utah, a terrible rebounding team, will have its efficiency severely tested. In fact, it's that reason that we are going the other way here. (Then again, we had Lafayette going to the Sweet Sixteen, so we guess we didn't really buy the Utes.)
Pick: Gonzaga 83, Utah 81
10) PIttsburgh vs 15) UC Santa Barbara (West). We discussed both teams at length earlier, so we'll keep this quick. Pitt has Shepard, Severado, Adekoya, and a ton of tough games played in the ACC. They lost a bunch of close games...if those go the other way, you're looking at a top-four seed here. The Gauchos played a great game against a wounded team. Pitt will be at full stretch.
Pick: Pitt 72, UC Santa Barbara 60
1) Virginia vs 9) Saint Mary's (Midwest). We really thought Arkansas, with their tested roster and tough schedule, would get to the Sweet Sixteen. Instead, we have the Gaels, after the WCC entrant handled the Razorbacks, 68-59. The Gaels (23-8) are a solid offensive team and reasonably efficient team who attack the offensive boards with a purpose (9th nationally). They also are seventh in three-point percentage. Against the Razorbacks, the Gaels shot 9-19 from deep (compared to 9-32 for Arkansas).
One note about Saint Mary's: They have the Er cousins. Corey Er is a senior guard from Colorado who has yet to see a minute in his two years on the Gaels. Jonas Er is a 6'10 postman from Los Angeles; he's gotten into 10 games this season. We just found this Er situation interesting, and wanted to share that with you.
We think Virginia will do Virginia things, because that's what they do. Saint Mary's is better equipped to handle that than most, and could make life very difficult on the Cavaliers. They don't have to shoot well to win...in a 79-65 win over Washington on Day 26, they shot just 30% from three. But Washington shot 34% from the field.
We don't expect Virginia (29th nationally in FG%) will have that kind of difficulty.
Pick: Virginia 74, Saint Mary's 70
2) North Carolina vs 7) Dayton (Midwest): Dayton is built in the Virginia frame, which North Carolina struggled with throughout the year. They are 14th in points allowed per game, but 11th in ORtg. They are 14th in free throw rate, and 14th in field goal percentage. They have three players averaging in double figures.
But, Dayton isn't as good as Virginia. Those three players, Eric Stephens, Jontray Polanco, and Kouat Jackson, only post 10.5 or fewer points per game. Stephens is efficient, but the other two are far from it. They don't have anyone who can consistently step up in the clutch.
North Carolina, meanwhile, is a star-studded team with maybe the best point guard in the nation (sorry Corban Vance and Justin Noel) in Dan Hargrove. The Tar Heels go the other way than the efficiently grind teams. They get up and down the floor (9th in the nation in pace), and they shot very well from deep (9th) and at the line (2nd nationally). They are the best all-around shooting team in the nation, let alone the tournament.
We think that's going to be a problem for the Flyers. A big one.
Pick: North Carolina 94, Dayton 75
1) Duke vs 8) St. Joseph's (South). The FIghtin' Jesuits beat Iowa on Matt Gnahore's three with five seconds left. This was his second chance; he had one in the A-10 title game, but missed. He didn't miss this time. It was the last of his 24 points.
The Hawks without a monster night from PF Joel Harrington (14-19 FG, 32-7-3) to secure the win. Now they get the Blue Devils, who did Duke things (not score too much, suffocate an opponent with efficiency). What can Saint Joseph's do to escape this fate?
Honestly, very little.
The Hawks are third in the nation in field goal percentage and 17th in eFG%, as well as Net Rating. In terms of any other metrics, though, they don't do anything all that well. They shoot well, and they rebound on the defensive end reasonably well. But that's it.
Against Duke, that's not enough.
Expect a big game from Nate Dorsey (who is truly forgotten on this Duke team).
Pick: Duke 67, Saint Joe's 58
Other Picks
East
9) MIchigan over 1) UConn
4) NC State over 12) UMass
6) Iowa State over 3) Kentucky
2) Illinois over 7) Arizona
West
3) Kansas over 6) Ohio State (we were really bad in the West region)
Midwest
4) Maryland over 5) Stanford
3) Colorado over 6) UNLV
South
5) Georgetown over 4) Florida
3) Indiana over 6) Kansas State
2) USC over 7) Villanova