JBL | The Quadaily 25, 2029 Season (Day 21): Sell Your WCC Stock (And Other Recommendations)
We're about a fifth of the way through the season, so we figured, why not do a Buy/Sell? We also added a new feature to the column, one that may stick around.
Buy: Cincinnati. Their only legitimate chance at a loss before conference play comes at Day 53, when they go to Villanova. We'll call that a loss; Villanova is a quality team, and winning in Philly is difficult. But around that...we could be looking at a 30-1 team at the end of the regular season. With the way teams have been taking each other out, it would not be a shock to see Cincinnati firmly atop the poll by the end of the season...unlike the winflated teams in the AAC last year, Cincinnati's place at the top would be deserved.
Sell: Maryland. Maybe the Terps simply got hot at the right time last year. Yes, their losses are to Duke and Vriginia. And yes, both are much better than advertised (well, we'll talk about Virginia shortly). But Maryland is good at getting to the line, and somewhat at ORtg, and that's it. Defensively, they are not up to snuff (201st in DRtg). Now, yes, they are pretty aligned on the things they did and did not do well last year. But the wrinkle of Chuck Featherston into this offense tips the balance a bit. We have a hard time figuring them out, and we could easily come back to rue selling on Maryland by the end of the regular season. We picked them to win the Big Ten and reach the National Championship. But they should have won at least one of the Duke/Virginia games. They'll have plenty of chances to prove us wrong.
Buy: Virginia. So we originally have the Cavaliers 2nd in the country in our initial Quad ranking. Due to a potential shake-up with their coaching staff right before the season, we dropped them off the face of the Earth. That shake-up turned out to be a false starter; after a season opening loss to St. John's, Virginia has bee solid (granted, against a not great schedule). But the win against Maryland was a game that signaled they're back, and we can recognize them as such. They're actually in the same vein as Maryland, though with a much higher ORtg. Their DRtg, we imagine, will improve (it's currently 221st). With Cedric Clayborne and Tony Eyles leading the offense, and Geoff Harrell leading a host of role players, it is pretty easy to see why we are high on Virginia.
Sell: Stanford. The Cardinal have the same blueprint as last year, though not quite as well, especially on the defensive end. Yes, it's been just a handful of games (they're 3-1). But how is a team that is 251st in the nation in DRtg going to compete in the Pac-12? It isn't as if Stanford has played a murderer's row of offenses. They've faced Iowa State, UMass, Oklahoma State, and Valparaiso. What happens when they have to face USC UCLA, and Arizona? What happens when Colorado and Utah come in and stifle their offense? This is a team that the OR loves (9th as of today). Sell that as quickly as you can.
Buy: Charlotte. The 49ers have beaten a team from the Big Ten and SEC. (Granted, neither Northwestern nor Tennessee are great, but still, the point remains.) In a season in which big conferences have reigned, Charlotte owning wins from two power conferences sticks out. There will be a tremendous test when they go to Clemson on Day 42, but that's a game we think Charlotte can win. The 49ers are 15th in the nation in offense and 18th in ORtg. They are seventh in FG%, 27th in FT%. They lead the nation in transition points per game. They're 25th in points in the paint. The sheer dichotomy of those two stats is amazing; it shows Charlotte can run (they are 88th in pace, which is fine), but can also handle you underneath. Their SOS is 33rd...so they haven't exactly played pushovers. We are believers of Jahvaughn LaChance, who leads an offense that has four players in dobule figures. Charlotte is a team to be reckonened with.
Sell: The WCC. Gonzaga is Gonezaga, as in gone from relevance. BYU...okay, now they've lost to Duke, UNLV, and Utah. Okay. We get that. But their offense has been offensive, at 273rd in PPG and 231st in ORtg. If anything, their 90-83 loss to Duke validates how piss poor Duke's defense is. We can get behind Saint Mary's, but we also have to wonder what in the hell Fairfield and Navy are doing with themselves to start the season.
Buy: South Carolina, maybe. The measurables of the 'Cocks are...um, impressive. They are 41st in PPG, 85th in oPPG...and 83rd in ORtg, 22nd in DRtg. We wonder about their FG% (188th), but their pace (45th) and offensive rebounds (53rd) suggest this is a team that can deal with offensive struggles. When it comes to the schedule, people thought things of Clemson to start the year. We touted Bradley as a mid-major darling (South Carolina escaped with a 69-67 win). We picked Penn to win the Ivy, and Western Kentucky to finish second in CUSA. So this is a quality schedule the team has played so far. The backcourt of Evan Boswell and Isiaha Saglam may be one of the most underrated in the country. Jaylen Reese has provided solid balance (though we'd want to see his 42.6% from the field go up). With as wide open as the SEC is this year, we could see South Carolina being a major player.
Sell: Arizona State, probably. The Sun Devils are 4-0 and have similar Off/Def ratings to South Carolina, but that's against Farleigh Dickinson, Morehead State, Binghamton, and Albany. They are also 272nd in free throw percentage, despite being sixth in field goal percentage. Explain that one. They're also a team that abhors the three, ranking 329th/323rd in makes/attempts from range. They are eh at rebounding...good look being eh at rebounding in the Pac-12. They have four players averaging double figures, but leading scorer Tim Bonnington is shooting 38.8% from the field, and second-leading scorer Cole Okolie is shooting 34.1%. How is this team sixth in FG%, exactly? (Josh Koch and Jodan Masic are shooting 79.2% and 80.0%, respectively, while Kyrin Strong is shooting 77.8%. We wonder what will happen when they face a team with post defense.)
Buy: PG Jarius Richmond, UCLA. Okay, this is a no-brainer. But GMs in JBL circles are salivating and faux competing for a chance to win his services in the draft. He definitely has the look of the #1 pick-to-be in next season's draft. JBL teams covet high-end point guards, yet consider them to be the least important position to a winner. It has made little sense, but this is a league that wins on the wings and, up until recently, in the post. That narrative is shifting (which is why we believe shorter players won't carry the stigma of being too small for the JBL within the next few seasons). Point guards may be on the track towards a higher importance in the league, which means Richmond could be coming into the league at a perfect time. Mitchell Butler, Jr. was the last point taken #1...but after that, it's been hard to find superb lead guards. Richmond is that, averaging 27.3/2.3/5.0, on 54.9% shooting (46.4% from deep) on the season. Not only can be restore UCLA's pride, but he can be a top-flight difference-maker at the next level. Again, we know this is a copout pick, but he has a ceiling we haven't begun to realize yet.
Sell: SG Jared Hodge, Kansas. Right now, he's ranked as a top ten pick. We aren't quite buying that. His ceiling is considered to be much lower a the JBL level, though, of course, it only takes one team to see value in him. But we wonder about his overall offensive game transferring to the next level. He is shooting 40.5% from the field, and 28.6% from three. You would want a junior to improve (probably vastly improve) on the offensive end. He has regressed. He is doing more with his passing, but his increased assists have always come with increase turnovers. He's nearly doubled his fouls, despite playing just five more minutes a game. This is likely due to his gambling for steals nonstop. In a class that looks pretty loaded at the top of the SG class, Hodge would be the one who falls out of that ranking.
Quadshots: Snapshots of the Last Four Days
Kansas 68, Kentucky 66 (Day 20): With 1:17 left in the first half, Kentucky led 40-17. They led 41-24 at the half. Kansas worked their way back, and got it to 57-52 with 8:38. But Kentucky held them at bay, and led 63-54 with 4:50 to go. Kansas went on a 14-3 run to close the game, with Nick Pierre's three giving Kansas their first lead since they led 5-3. Pierre was the hero, posting 30 points (on 26 shots). He's averaging 25.4 ppg on the season. He was not the most efficient, but it got the job done. Demonte Watson's 23 led Kentucky.
Northern Illinois 68, North Texas 67 (Day 20): North Texas made two threes in the final three seconds against Northern Illinois, but fell just short. David Davis tried to draw a foul at the buzzer, as he ran into Jordan Claycomb before throwing up a running three. The ball went in, but the refs weren't having it.
Arkansas 57, Illinois 47: This was a show-me game for these two teams. Arkansas fell on hard times to start the year, and a 1-4 start would have been pretty rough. The Razorbacks managed to get the job done in a lackluster game against a team still figuring out its identity. For Illinois, it was an opportunity to get a road win against a team that should be better than it is. Instead, they put forth a terrible offensive effort, going 4-16 from 3. Yes, Arkansas was 2-10 from deep. Overall, this was a bad game from two teams who are wondering just who the hell they are.
Why is Villanova 14th? We thought we would take the time to answer this question, as there are some (namely in Pennsylvania) who are wondering why Villanova moved up just a spot after defeating North Carolina. There are a couple of reasons...first, and least important: The game was at home. It's tough to beat Villanova at their place. We tend to give teams somewhat more credit for big wins on the road.
But secondly, and this is more important...we typically don't jump after a team wins a big game. We are a more gradual poll. We pride our ranks more on trends than on any one moment. When UCLA shat the bed lsat year, it still took us until Day 37 to remove them from the poll. Missouri, meanwhile, didn't enter the top ten until Day 85.
Simply put, we don't like to jerk knees.
Now, we are high on Villanova. But if we're going to move Villanova up to the top ten, what does that say about Duke? Or Washington? Or Syracuse or UNLV? We were loathe to bump Michigan State for beating Kansas (something that corrected itself quickly).
As we said, we like to look at ourselves more as a trend poll. If Villanova continues to win games, and we think they will...we expect that they'll move up. Losing a game to a Texas team that, frankly, we feel they are better than didn't help things. But they'll get a big chance with games at Syracuse and against Cincinnati still on the docket.
This goes for any team; we merely pull out Villanova because they got the big win. Remember, despite Duke's early run, they're 15th with us; they are #1 in the OR poll, as well as in their own mind. Our methodology has never changed, and won't. We did pull two major corrections in the past two seasons...one was last year, and one this year with Virginia (in this poll, where we moved them to 19th...but in our defense, we also had them 2nd to start the year, before that aforementioned coaching issue caused us to drop them.
Quadaily 25, 2029 Season
Day 21
1. Ohio State (6-0, 1)
2. Southern Cal (4-1, 4)
3. Cincinnati (5-0, 5)
4. Colorado (4-1, 7)
5. Georgetown (4-1, 2)
6. Maryland (4-2, 3)
7. Utah (4-1, 8)
8. Syracuse (5-1, 9)
9. North Carolina (2-2, 6)
10. Kansas (3-2, 10)
11. Washington (5-1, 11)
12. UNLV (5-1, 12)
13. Arizona (4-0, 13)
14. Villanova (6-1, 15)
15. Duke (6-0, 16)
16. Michigan State (4-2, 13)
17. Iowa State (7-0, 19)
18. Marquette (5-0, 23)
19. Virginia (4-1, NR)
20. Texas (5-1, 20)
21. Wisconsin (5-1, 18)
22. UCLA (3-0, 21)
23. Pittsburgh 4-1, 22)
24. Indiana (5-1, 24)
25. Kansas State (2-2, 17)
NEXT: LSU, Alabama, Illinois, Auburn, Oregon
Dropped Out: LSU (25)