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I think meaningful vote 3 is infinitely more likely than no deal. If there is one majority in parliament it’s recognition that no deal is absolutely disasterous to almost every constituency in the country. Once it becomes obvious that the EU isn’t fucking around and this really is the last chance to avoid no deal, it will get through.
There’s really no incentive for the EU to back a longer delay without a commitment to another vote that remain has a very good chance to win, which isn’t happening without Labour and a decent number of Tory remainers throwing their weight behind it, which will then result in a good number of them losing their seats. And as we all know the first rule of politicians is self preservation, I just can’t see that’s a remotely realistic option either.
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