Quote:
Originally Posted by jeheinz72
Well I guess the main questions would be
A) Was it beneficial last time (I think yes)
B) What could the wolves have done differently last time than what we did (I don't really think so, but if there are 4 of them, then maybe)
C) Does more players hamper it's effectiveness (possibly)
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Isn't a full reveal about increasing the odds of getting a wolf, while also increasing the chance of the bodyguard keeping the important role(s) safe?
No one ever answered my questions about what the setup was last time, so I can't really give a comparison to last game unless someone wants to help me out with that info.
numberswise though in a game of 9 players, 3 good roles and 2 wolves and no information on who is who..if you are a non-rolled villager you end up with a 1 in 4 (25%) chance of getting a wolf, a 37.5% chance of hitting a good role and a 37.5% chance of hitting another non-rolled villager.
If you are a villager with a role, but don't know who the other rolled villagers are, in the same 9 player game the percentages change to: 25% chance of getting a wolf, 25% chance of hitting another rolled villager and a 50% chance of hitting a villager without a role.
Now in this hypothetical 9 person game, if all of the roles were revealed, you would know who the three good guys are theoretically (barring fake reveals which likely would blow up in the wolves face anyways).. so that changes the same percentages again. If you were a non-rolled villager and know who the three villager roles are, you would have a 40% chance of hitting a wolf, 0% chance of hitting a good villager role, and a 60% chance of hitting a non-rolled villager.
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So now since this game has 12 players, if we assume there are 3 rolled good guys and either 3 or 4 wolves, we can have the following stats:
3 wolves, no reveal:
Chance for a non-rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 27%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick a roled villager: 27%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick another non-rolled villager: 45%
Chance for a rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 27%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick another rolled villager: 18%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick a non-rolled villager: 55%
3 wolves with reveal:
Chance for a non-rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 43%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick a roled villager: 0%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick another non-rolled villager: 57%
Chance for a rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 38%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick another rolled villager: 0%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick a non-rolled villager: 63%
4 wolves, no reveal:
Chance for a non-rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 36%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick a roled villager: 27%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick another non-rolled villager: 36%
Chance for a rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 36%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick another rolled villager: 18%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick a non-rolled villager: 45%
4 wolves with reveal:
Chance for a non-rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 57%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick a roled villager: 0%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick another non-rolled villager: 43%
Chance for a rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 50%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick another rolled villager: 0%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick a non-rolled villager: 50%