Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - Prediction Market Inefficiency (or ping: Quicksand)

digamma · 12-04-2018, 10:52 PM

Interesting PredictIt thing happening now. There's been a market on the number of GOP seats in the Senate. It had centered on 53 (duh!), but the market doesn't close until the start of the next session of Congress on January 4. So, here's the wrinkle. Rick Scott is the governor of Florida until the state inauguration on January 8. He won't be seated as Florida's senator until that date. A bunch of people have taken the position that that means the senate will have 52 Republicans at the start of the Congress, when the contract ends. They are both trading at about 50 cents on the dollar right now. Step up and make your bet.

(I can argue both sides of this one due to the wording of the rules, which says the number of republican senators at the start of the congress who were elected. So for 53 you argue that Scott was elected, just not seated. For 52, you argue that he is not a senator yet and the rules clearly say senator.)

12-04-2018, 10:52 PM	#18
digamma Torchbearer Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: On Lake Harriet	Interesting PredictIt thing happening now. There's been a market on the number of GOP seats in the Senate. It had centered on 53 (duh!), but the market doesn't close until the start of the next session of Congress on January 4. So, here's the wrinkle. Rick Scott is the governor of Florida until the state inauguration on January 8. He won't be seated as Florida's senator until that date. A bunch of people have taken the position that that means the senate will have 52 Republicans at the start of the Congress, when the contract ends. They are both trading at about 50 cents on the dollar right now. Step up and make your bet. (I can argue both sides of this one due to the wording of the rules, which says the number of republican senators at the start of the congress who were elected. So for 53 you argue that Scott was elected, just not seated. For 52, you argue that he is not a senator yet and the rules clearly say senator.)