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What I wrote late Saturday...
1. Undefeated SEC Champion (Georgia)
2. Undefeated Big Ten Champion (Ohio State or Michigan)
3. Undefeated Big Twelve Champion (TCU)
4. 1-Loss SEC Champion or Runner-Up (Georgia)
5. 1-Loss Pac Twelve Champion (USC)
(since 1 and 4 are the same team, the above results are guaranteed playoff spots)
6. 1-Loss Big Ten Runner-Up (Ohio State or Michigan)
7. 1-Loss ACC Champion (Clemson)
8. 2-Loss SEC Champion (LSU)
9. 1-Loss Big Twelve Champion or Runner-Up (TCU)
10. 1-Loss Big Ten Lucky Loser (Ohio State or Michigan)
(this almost certainly fills all four spots, but since nine different teams can occupy 9-12 and my system gives them fairly similar scores, significantly below the top eight, I'm including all 12)
11. 2-Loss Pac Twelve Champion (USC, Oregon, Utah or Washington)
12. 2-Loss SEC Lucky Loser (Tennessee, then Alabama)
What the committee thinks....
1. Undefeated SEC Champion (Georgia)
2. Undefeated Big Ten Champion (Ohio State or Michigan)
3. Undefeated Big Twelve Champion (TCU)
4. 1-Loss SEC Champion or Runner-Up (Georgia)
5. 2-Loss SEC Champion (LSU)
That could get them to four teams, so those are the teams that "control their own destiny" as of right now.
6. 1-Loss Pac Twelve Champion (USC)
It gets a little tricky here. They are separating Alabama and Tennessee
7. 2-Loss SEC Lucky Loser (Alabama - it's like those '80s horror films where you just can't kill the beast)
8. 1-Loss Big Ten Runner-Up (Ohio State or Michigan)
9. 1-Loss ACC Champion (Clemson)
10. 2-Loss Pac Twelve Champion (USC or Oregon, but not Utah or Washington)
11. 2-Loss SEC Lucky Loser (Tennessee)
It gets very unlikely at this point
12. 1-Loss Big Twelve Champion or Runner-Up (TCU)
13. 1-Loss Big Ten Lucky Loser (Ohio State or Michigan)
14. 2-Loss Pac Twelve Champion (Utah or Washington)
It's obvious from the latest rankings that the committee is a little more SEC-oriented than I had expected.
Regarding The Game... sure, OSU will be favored by at least 40-50 points. If it's even close, that's a huge victory for Michigan. They just don't have the secondary or really the pass rush to deal with the talent in OSU's passing game.
But there's always hope - it has been very obvious all season long that Michigan has kept certain parts of its offense and defense under wraps - the advantage of a schedule that turned out to be a lot less challenging than it should have been.
Will Stroud go #1? I think #2. Bryce Young's looking more like the #1 pick right now. Could change with the bowls, though.
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