[SirFozzie]

Basically, May has been playing "My Deal or No Deal", but Parliament has rejected it twice. The main problem is there's a majority to reject May's Deal, but there's no majority for an ACTUAL way forward (No Deal, Softer Brexit, Remain, etcetera)

May's tactic (and somewhat the EU) has been "This is the deal on offer. It's this or nothing", and she's been trying to run out the clock to make it literally THIS or nothing. She's refused to modify her stance, refused to countenance anything BUT her deal.

So Right now, the only thing that everyone in Parliament can agree on is that May sucks (her own party can't get rid of her because they tried once previously, and they can't try again for like a year, but they don't vote for no confidence because that would likely trigger a new election, and they prefer things as they are.

May tried to publicly pressure the MPs, trying to rile up the nation's Brexiteers, but it's backfired as May is now getting blamed for the threats people are making, and rather hardened the MP's stance that "Fuck no, we're not going to vote for your deal".

So, right now, here are the UK's options

1) May has said that she will bring the withdrawal agreement again to the Commons next week. If it goes through, a technical delay will be necessary because well, they can't put everything through Parliament in a week.

2) If it fails, then the UK has until the 12th of april to indicate how they're going to move forward (They will have to hold euro elections, for example). If they don't, then no-deal happens and the UK crashes and burns.

3) For all of the Parliament that wants the withdrawal agreement modified to suit their needs, this is "Fuck no, that ain't going to happen. Stop dreaming".

So options (in order of what I think is most likely to happen)

Long Delay: I consider this most likely, because no one really can figure out what would get through Parliament. Meaningful Vote 3 (Ie, the third attempt to pass May's deal) fails. Brexit continues for a year or so while everyone tries to untie this gordian knot. What the outcome would be afterwards is still unclear.

No Deal: There are enough hardcore Euroskeptics in Parliament that I honestly can't think of a deal that would get past the Euroskeptics AND the Remainers AND the Soft Brexiteers. The UK crashes out, and trade takes a major hit because all those trade agreements are no longer in force. (I think they have post-trade agreements with only two of the EU27 nations, and one if them is Lichenstein for god's sake). So trade no longer happens "normally", and all kinds of shenanigans are on the table.

Meaningful Vote 3 gets approved, and passes. This is a hail mary play by May, but it's really the only move they keep trying. In this case, the Withdrawal Agreement comes into effect, and trade between the rest of the EU and England goes through under its terms.