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Originally Posted by RainMaker
It was pretty close in 2020 and Biden's popularity has tanked since then. He's lost a chunk of his base and is hoping to make it up with Nikki Haley voters. I think the issue is that demographic shifts will likely cost him Arizona and Nevada while his foreign policy is going to tank him in Michigan. It does seem like North Carolina might be in play but who knows (I do think North Carolina eventually shifts blue like Virginia).
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If this November's election ends up basically just being a re-run of 2020, then I suspect the above narrative is correct.
I'm clinging to the hope that what's really happening with the polls is that Trump continues to be at the peak of his support, since his hard-core support never wavers, and a lot of people inclined to vote Democrat are saying they're not going to vote for Biden to send a message. Then, in November, the latter group will grit their teeth and vote for Biden because they feel the alternative is too terrible, and in addition a lot of people who say now that they're going to vote for Trump are hoping (again) that he'll moderate himself, and when he doesn't, will stay home.
Again, hope, not a plan. I'm assuming the worst happens, of course, which is Trump wins, the Senate goes GOP, Sotomayor dies, and this is the last free national election this country has.
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One of the issues with putting up an 82 year old man who can't speak publicly much.
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Like so many things, this only matters for the Democrat, as Trump is even worse when he speaks.
Plus, we're not that far removed from the main knock on Obama from the right being that he was too well spoken (and wore tan suits).