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Old 10-14-2011, 08:10 PM   #3880
Commo_Soldier
College Benchwarmer
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: JBLM, WA
Part of day 5. I can't do this anymore. I mean seriously Abe is freaking laughing at us because J23 is sitting back and watching me help lynch our seer. Then we have the oh so true comment from Narc if bug is good we lynch EF and him and it should be like 10-1 and if the village can't win it deserves to lose which is exactly what will happen Autumn if you don't switch.

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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Well that was a pretty lousy day all around.

Dubb, what had you so convinced that Crimson was a convert? And did you happen to activate any kind of villager role to take matters into your own hands last night?

Commo, it has been fun having you in this game and seeing you get more assertive between last game and this one. Keep up the good work.

Bug - why didn't you immediately post your scan result from last night? It looks like you were on after Abe announced the results ... this is information we need to know and the failure to come forward with it right away is the kind of thing that can make people a bit suspicious.

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Originally Posted by Narcizo View Post
I have a question to the people involved with Chief's item swap - do you think the items are powerful enough to provide Chief with trust for handing them over? I'm probably looking at voting Eagle or him at this stage as the simplest options. I do have misgivings about some of the "cleared" players but I think we have enough of a buffer at the moment to push that on the back-burner until next week.

I guess I need to offer some sort of defence of myself at this stage as I'm a pretty obvious suspect giving my crappy voting record. But, you know, I don't really have one. I haven't been as present as I normally am and, consequently, haven't been able to make the same shaky analysis I normally do. On the plus side the lack of involvement means I haven't obsessed as much as usual and have managed to avoid releasing the Dogs of Paranoia! Although I have one or two ideas along those lines.

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Originally Posted by J23 View Post
I'm honestly getting pretty skeptical about Bug. With there being two kills last night, I'm going to assume that there are at least 2 wolves (unless a villager confesses to one of those kills) and look elsewhere for the time being at least.

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Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post
Not much time here as I am heading out, only a couple minutes to check in but very good news. I found a convert last night. Sorry fo being unavailable for much of the game but glad that I finally can contribute.

I am tied up most of the day preparing for my daughter's birthday party this weekend and then I have poker tonight. I will try to check in when possible.


vote mrbug

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Sure, all good points. But since I, at least, said last night I'd be voting between Chief and EF, anything that makes people sway in one way or the other is going to be wanted, by a wolf Chief or a villager chief. Better to lose the bat than die, probably in either case, but especially in a wolf's case.

I was hoping Bug would make this day easy for us, since we're down to 2 Thomkal voters to choose from (barring fake reveals or fake scans or converts). For now, since only EF has votes, I'm going to keep Chief in the mix.

vote chief rum

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Rereading the rules, all I can think is that it's pretty much inevitable that a seer is going to be corrupt. I hope we have more than one. With an always-on sherrif, the wolves can only get at a seer by corrupting him. Add to that that he can corrupt himself by scanning ... *sad music* Sorry Bug, I hope you're still on our side, but how many nights can that last? Danny I think is the only thing that could protect Bug from corruption unless he has some item.

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Originally Posted by MrBug708 View Post
If I'm a convert...I'm unaware of it

But I scanned Narizco last night

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Originally Posted by MrBug708 View Post
vote narizco

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Wow, here's a nice mess.

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
This is an example of what I mean. If Bug had come out with this first thing in the morning i would have just jumped on it. Coming out with it after EF's post leaves me hanging. Though the obvious thing to do if Bug was a convert would be to say he scanned EF, so that makes me feel a bit better about it.

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Why did you scan Narcizo, Bug? I would have thought Chief and EF would be obvious scans.

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
I agree, if only because Bug has at least claimed seer. EF hasn't claimed anything and there doesn't seem a means for him to have done this. Ironic that Bug suddenly claims a wolf just after he gets a finger pointed at him though. We have to assume EF is a wolf who figured he got scanned and wanted to draw first blood. But given the very real possibility of corruption in this game I'm just not sure. I sure hope EF gets back on today.

unvote chief rum
vote narcizo

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Originally Posted by MrBug708 View Post
This is my first time as a seer and I felt determined to hit s bad guy more than I wanted to clear someone. Narizco is usually more involved so I went with him.

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Originally Posted by MrBug708 View Post
I was planning on coming out with my vote after the first big vote on me

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Originally Posted by MrBug708 View Post
I also won't lie...I thought about saying narizco was good and that would have bought me another day IMO. I don't think I survive tonight's action sadly.

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
How do you expect they will kill you? And if you claimed a fake scan, you think the wolves would think you're somehow on their side?

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Frankly if you had come out saying you scanned Narcizo good I'd be tempted to vote you. That's the sort of scan a fake seer comes out with. At least this way we can test your scan and your allegiance.

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Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
The item I got from Chief looks like it could be powerful, but I have no idea, I'm going to wiki it in a bit to find out. What has me concerned however is has anyone admitted to passing Chief an item? Why does he have multiples? While it gains trust, I made it somewhat clear I would be going after him today and he knew that so it is easy for a wolf, who get all the dead peoples items, to pass me something to try and gain trust.

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Originally Posted by J23 View Post
Vote Narcizo

I still think Bug is likely converted and Narc could be good, but I really don't want to risk the seer on that feeling.

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Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
The problem is he doesn't really clear anyone. Any or all of the people he has said are good can now be bad because of conversion or he got an incorrect reading to begin with. I'm starting to think I'd rather vote Bug today to end this debate once and for all getting a good voting history to review over the weekend and also let the sheriff protect McKerney, or who ever announced as the Minister. Otherwise maybe CR or who ever else Bug scanned to see what his scans are really telling us, but preferably Bug.

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Yeah I can't figure why a corrupt Bug would point a finger at Narc, unless he thinks Narc has a role, maybe. But it seems like a bold play. If Bug had only pulled it before he got fingered as corrupt, I would feel a lot stronger about it. But now you can interpret it as a save-his-ass move.

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Oh, man, of course. I had forgotten about the gadget roles. I was just looking at that this morning too, but I was thinking maybe they weren't in the game.

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Clearly you gave the hints we needed, Chief, yeah. I was just being dense. Do you have control over what you invent, or clues as to what they do?

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
But killing Bug won't make anything any clearer. As you said his scans could have been converted already. I suppose we could then guess who he might have lied about. But lynching Narc provides the same data. And unless Narc has an important role, at less cost. Unless we think Bug is offering up a wolf, which would be a crazy move.

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Originally Posted by J23 View Post
Btw, Abe accepts conditional item passes. The item I passed a couple nights ago was going to go to Danny before he was NK'd, so it went to the backup I had listed.

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Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
Yes, this is very interesting, and I still think quite possible.









So you think about lying, what good does that do? Then you said something about waiting to reveal until you got your first vote. What I think is happening here is this. Narc is probably a wolf. That buys you trust, but you were thinking about lying because well, it helps to keep your wolf buddies alive. You realized however that if we lynch him and he is a wolf we probably keep you alive and this gets you all the trust you need to stay alive for the near future. As others stated, why Narc though? I'll have to go back and check, but at no point do I recall you ever suspecting him as a wolf. It does help though to out a fellow wolf with a bad voting record, limited availability, and a target as it is to gain trust. This may buy you today, but I really am not sold on you.



To me if it does come up as Bug becoming a wolf you are the next person I lynch. I'm strongly recommending again that Bug be left out to dry. The wolves need to lynch the minister and he has already come out, the seer, not so much.

Vote Narc

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
I would have expected them to make a run at you every night since you revealed.

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Luring out votes makes sense, and what i would expect. But what did you mean you were waiting until you got a vote?

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Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
I still am not 100% sold. You said you were pondering lying about it, that is ludicrous. Not to mention if you are a wolf it greatly helps out your case.



I'm not sure if we lynch him though, I kind of want to to end speculation and get a voting history for who voted for him and who not. I'm curious though why I've mentioned you being the minister and BGing you at night, but you have not corrected me. I just went back to see who was the minister and I misread that you were the Martyr and we were speculating a minister was in the game. That changes everything for who to BG, the obvious choice that DZ is dead now is Bug.

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Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
I believe if he is bad, he picks Narc because he:
  1. Knows he is a wolf
  2. Has a bad voting record
  3. Hasn't been on a ton
  4. Has some people thinking he is a wolf already
  5. Most importantly, buys him trust that he is the Seer and still good.

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Originally Posted by MrBug708 View Post
Did anyone have Narcizo as a wolf previously? I dont recall much talk about him at all.

As for bad voting record, a case could be made for pretty much everyone.

And why do you keep harping the fact that I might not be the Seer? I dont think anyone really doubts it. Yesterday it was I had to be corrupted as the Seer, there was no other way around it. Today it's "I might not even be the Seer".

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Me either, which is why I find it a very odd scan. If he had turned up good and we'd been left trying to pick still between EF and Chief I would have been super annoyed, tbh.

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Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
I had mentioned it a few days ago, and Narc even has been admitting it for the past few days.

That is true, but Narcs is probably the worst.

I keep harping because you might not be and are doing / saying really strange things. It leads me to believe you are a wolf now. As for yesterday I was stating you might not have ever been the seer either. I've been saying this entire time that I think it is possible you are a wolf now either through corruption or an original and that the seer, either you or someone else, was converted and gave you the chance to come out as the seer. My stance has not really changed.

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Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
I have some ideas, but I'm not going to throw them out there to give him them until we find out what he says.

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Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
I'm not sold on EF, but if we have a supposed wolf we would be fools to at least not vote them out.

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Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
Not a ton, but there have been doubts about Narc, just nothing from Bug. Which is one of the reasons it was so weird for him to scan Narc over a person he was suspecting as bad.

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Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
I thought we had the minister in the game still with McKerney, but I re-read it and he is the martyr and people mentioned shortly after, because of the exorcist reveal, that the minister was probably in the game. After I re-read that I said he should be protected now as we lost the more important role.



I'm not sure if he is a great target now with all the scrutiny.

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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
I would 100% buy into this logic if Bug had come out before EF. But with EF suggesting that Bug was compromised (still waiting for details) then Bug as a wolf would figure his days are number and try to get one bonus kill before he goes down.

If a fake seer isn't in danger (conversion most likely scenario, either him or another on his team being the converted seer) then they should just keep "clearing" people every day. But since he was in danger when he came forward with the reveal, I think all bets are off in terms of Narcizo.

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Originally Posted by Narcizo View Post
Oh for christ's sake!

Dunno if Bug got lucky or if the wolves have some sort of a scanning power. Really Bug? You suddenly know I'm a wolf like 5 minutes after Eagle outs you? pretty convenient. And you happen to have scanned me (not Chief, not Eagle) when I'm the sheriff? I'm guessing scanning power.

Honestly, I think we're in good enough shape to lynch me then lynch Bug tomorrow but I'm not going to let him take me down without a fight. Looks like my paranoid side was right after all.

Protected self. Protected self. Protected Dzilla. Protected Bug.

Yes! I rock at being a bodyguard. I always have. I think it's a cursed role for me. I know that it looks bad for me but, what the hell, it looks even worse for Bug.

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
This day keeps getting crazier.

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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
FWIW, this is the "roled Lightbringer" role that I thought Narcizo might have, since the night blocks weren't going to the obvious places. The natural explanation to me was that the guy in charge of the blocks wasn't around to see the stuff at deadline and account for it with his actions. This is also why I didn't mention a single word of that stuff in the thread - because if Narcizo was the BG then I didn't want to say something that might tip off the Servants.

With this post, I'm probably closer to believing EF + Narcizo than I am MrBug. But I still want to wait and hear what EF says before casting a vote.

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
I hadn't thought of that Hoops, but it makes sense.

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Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
forgot to

Unvote Narc

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Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
I'm willing to buy you another day as I'm more not sold on bug than you.

Vote Bug

If he comes up wolf you can always protect yourself, if villager not so much.

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Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
While my thinking leans toward yours, but there's just a lot of stuff that makes no sense about EF, too. If he's a seer, why did he jump in and reveal just one scan and leave? Why did he call Bug a convert? That doesn't seem to be info he would get as a seer. What role does he claim to be if not the seer? There does not seem to be a role corresponding to his that I can see.

Although, should be noted, Abe said it's possible we have Lightbringer roles that are not listed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
He never said he was a seer, Bug said that. I've been holding off, but here is my thinking. EF is the Detective and watched Bug. He saw he didn't do a scan, possibly even kill DZ.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
Also, thinking of it now, it helps Bug to wait until later as Narc was typically gone and couldn't come out. They kill him and another one or two tonight and the village despite starting off good is now in somewhat bad shape.

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Damn, that would be cold, but you're right, it would make sense to do that.

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Originally Posted by Narcizo View Post
Couple of other things. If the reason I got scanned was because of a bad voting record then if Eagle is lying my record is actually pretty good, thankyouverymuch. I prefer to think that I've carried a straight villager voting record. Sorry guys.

And, erm, something else. Sorry, watching QI at the moment.

Oh yeah. In terms of cost-benefit I think voting Bug is the right move. If Bug is telling the truth then I'm bad and Eagle probably is as well. You will have about 10:1 - if you can't bring that home then we deserve to lose. "If" Bug is bad then we're going to be down the seer and the bodyguard with two wolves left. Not quite so clear cut.

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
So with no counter reveal coming out, we have to decide if Narc is a corrupted sherriff caught by our uncorrupted seer, or if he's a real sherrif guessed at or figured out by a corrupt Bug. I would be surprised if there isn't a role or item in game that allows people to find out roles, or at least specific roles. But we don't know of one. That makes me lean in favor of continuing to vote Narc, but it's not much of a lean given all the other circumstantial evidence.

I'm going to hope that EF will show up and clear things up eventually.

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Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
Another reason for bug to wait, the prime two suspects CR and EF had already outed themselves as roles why name one of them and taking a shot is a good idea.

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Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
That is the problem, he didn't say anything really other than bug is bad and that is who he is voting for. I didn't want to say what I thought he could be because I didn't want to give him ideas. I felt I had to though as I think it is a HUGE mistake to lynch him for that word when Bug has been very skeptical to others. I'm just laying it out there that he can find out bug is bad with a non hidden role that no one else has claimed.

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Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post
I have a couple minutes so I will tell you what I have been doing.

I am a detective.

I came close to asking to be replaced on day one when I thought that I missed the deadline (since I was going to be busy and unavailable much of the game I was afraid that deadline was going to be rough for me). Thought I had missed putting in an order but then saw I had until 2 AM. Hate the feeling like I just screwed up and cost the village potential information.


As it turns out I learned nothing on night one. I followed Danny and saw nothing suspicious.

Night 2 I chose hoops and saw nothing suspicious.

Night 3 I chose The Jackal and saw nothing suspicious.

Night 4 I went with bug and saw what was described as a mysterious shadowy figure hovering above bug and then saw something that appeared to be an evil spirit enter bugs body. Said that he suddenly looked my direction but it was uncertain if he saw me, just that there was hate in his eyes as he glared in my direction.

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Originally Posted by Thomkal View Post
Yes that was the exact answer I was expecting-that he either watched the conversion take place last night, or saw MrBug somehow change after his magic number kicked in on his conversion chance with his scans.

Now if someone else comes out today and claims detective my head might blow up.

unvote eaglefan
vote mrbug

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Huh, that's not what I expected, to be honest. I'm not sure I buy it. Do those targets make sense? Certainly MrBug last night would if EF had doubts about him. Hoops and Danny are always good people to watch. What was Jackal up to that day that made you watch him?

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
So that sounds like the way the role worked last time, Thomkal? This sounds legit to you?

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Originally Posted by Thomkal View Post
yes it sounds legit to me, but quite frankly I'm not sure it matters if its legit or not-if we lynch MrBug tonight because of it and he turns out good, we have a no doubt evil in Eaglefan.

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Well, at this point sheriff is our most important role so no way I take a chance of lynching Narcizo over the rest. I guess I'd rather lynch a seer, given all the conversions and such, or certainly detective.

unvote narcizo

Quote:
Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
And if I'm going to vote EF, that would mean Bug is telling the truth, in which cause I might as well vote Narc. lol

So I guess i have to vote Bug, as backwards as that feels.

vote mrbug

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Originally Posted by J23 View Post
unvote Narcizo
vote MrBug


I don't see 2 scans in a night happening.

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Originally Posted by SnDvls View Post
This is enough for me

unvote eagle
vote bug

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Originally Posted by SnDvls View Post
dola - I too am a detective and that wording is almost verbatium what I got on nights I "observed" people

I observed Gram night 1
Hoops night 2
autumn night 3
hoops night 4

all came back as seeing nothing suspicious

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Originally Posted by mauboy1 View Post
vote bug

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Originally Posted by Thomkal View Post
I would agree with you Jackal-given the number of people playing, detective would be the role I think we would have multiples of. I'm not sure I'm buying Sndvls claim here as there was no real no need to come forward at this point as no one has been openly suspicious of him the whole game. And its unlikely EagleFan would have been lynched tonight I'm thinking.

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Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
I buy it, I thought he was the detective on Day one when he asked who we all thought the detective should watch.

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Originally Posted by Narcizo View Post
I'm off. See you tomorrow. I think we're a good way towards winning this one.

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Originally Posted by J23 View Post
I'm not sure you laughing is the only reason they think that.

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Originally Posted by SnDvls View Post
sorry guys (and Bug) have to back track on this statement....just reread the PMs again.

unvote Bug

I'm growing more weary of EagleFan now

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Originally Posted by SnDvls View Post
they werent' that descriptive when nothing happened.

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Originally Posted by SnDvls View Post
I will stand by my night results though and I fully trust Hoops, 90% trust Autumn and 70% trust Gram from the day of my night watching.

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Originally Posted by J23 View Post
Given that we only got 1 kill a night and there are multiple wolves, I don't think following people should really make you trust people, but only distrust those you see doing bad things.

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Originally Posted by SnDvls View Post
vote eaglefan

If he's telling the truth we clear Narc and can lynch Bug

if he's lying we lynch Narc and clear Bug.

it's a 2 for 1 either way we look at it.

this would also change my "bad guys" list a bit too for those looking at it (though I doubt anyone is)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
I want to vote EF if our other detective finds his reveal false-sounding. But Sndvls, are you saying your PMs were less descriptive than "saw nothing suspicious"? That sounds pretty non-descriptive, but I guess I can imagine ways it might be even less so.

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Originally Posted by SnDvls View Post
YES

very less descriptive than that

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Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
So did Abe even respond to you then?

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Originally Posted by SnDvls View Post
yes he did.....don't want to give away too much here

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Originally Posted by mauboy1 View Post
I'd venture to guess bug could still be bad and this is all one big hoax concocted by sndvls. I don't know what to do.

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Originally Posted by Thomkal View Post
Abe is too busy laughing Dubb

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Originally Posted by mauboy1 View Post
Well, if Bug is convinced EF is also a wolf, he'll be moving there I assume.

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Originally Posted by mauboy1 View Post
That leaves us with a tie and a huge conundrum. Do we kill them both due to the craziness of it all?

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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
What is your theory on what has happened, Dubb? You think Bug is bad, Narc is good, EF is good? And you think Sndvls is bad or just confused?
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