[Abe Sargent]

The 3032 NFL Amateur Draft

With my luck, I’ll spend twice as much time on the draft to get half the results!

Philadelphia kicks this thing off by grabbing a QB.


Damn, a lot of quality talent is waiting. The best WR on the board is still there after the top ten and we have a stud RB there as well. There are some other great talents on the board too. At the 1.15 spot, we still have available:

WLB Mickey Wickson
NT Cooper Zimmerman
FL Adrian McHugh
RB Riddick Guthrie

I interview everyone but Zimmerman and they are all looking good. Other teams dipped hard into the line and QB and secondary. I think Guthrie is the nest RB in the draft, McHugh either the 1st or 2nd best, Wickson the best LB of any sort, and Zimmerman the best D Line and DT in the draft by bars (although we didn’t interview him)

So, I doubt all four fall to us at 1.32. I doubt any of them do. But could you imagine me moving a bunch of picks and grabbing my future RB, WR studs at both spots, right now for my roster? We’d be set, and it’s been very hard to find quality RB. It would be nice to trade up and snatch one.

And if I moved up and grabbed Guthrie, I would be able to wait for finding a WR later. Just hypothetically, what’s the cost to move to 1.15 or 1.16 from 1.32?

1.32 is worth 590
1.16 is worth 1000

I’d need to give up 410 to get close. That’s a high 2nd. My low 2.32 is 270. There are a few players I like on the board that I expect at 2.32. For example the 8th overall OT, Hector Johnson, has no combine scores, but great bars, and he interviewed as scouted. I’m very okay grabbing him in the 2nd. I have taken a lot of non-combine folks recently who fall on draft day, and I expect Johnson to do the same (DT Zimmerman is the same).

So, to trade I’d need something like a future 2nd and something else.

Now I don’t have a lot of money in the kitty for a lot of moves up, so I want to trade picks this year, ideally. Dallas at 1.15 has a glaring need in the secondary and takes a S at 1.15

But at 1.16 are the Bills, and their #1 need his offseason is RB. There is a low chance that RB Guthrie won’t be taken here. He’s technically the 2nd back on the board, but all three have the same ranking. I interviewed them and they are very overrated, as scouted, and overrated.

Would you trade a future 2 and a 3rd or 4th this year for the RB that makes your team sing? But we’ve signed great backs in the past and sometimes, cough DeMarco Murray, their impact wasn’t what I’d hope. If I make this trade and it doesn’t work out, I’m screwed. Ish. I skip it. No RB

As expected, the Bills grab RB Guthrie.

Then Washington selects WR at 1.18. Oh oh!

This leaves McHugh at the top of the WR list and a WR needy team next. Washington didn’t need WR that was an odd pick. Now I believe more in the power of a high-quality WR than a RB. Especially now. I need a post-Wild guy to stretch the field and to pair with Poffenroth.

I call up the KC GM on the phone and we hammer quickly an agreement in theory. :

My 1.32 and 3.32 this year and 2nd rounder in two years for their 1.18.

Before I make this deal, I want to step back and pause. We don’t lack for quality WR talent in the league. As of today, there are 5 WRs with a current 70+ ranking and another 13 that are 60+. That’s 18 WR that have at least a 60 current ranking. That’s not some lack of talent, but quality WR just don’t hit FA, and when they do, they are very old, like Steadman Bailey a few years ago. Teams hold onto them. They also don’t tend to fall too much in the draft. I have drafted precisely two receivers – Wild and Poffenroth in our normal area in the late 1st. Wild fell into our lap and was a BAP, the other was forced when Lee retired.

So, without Wild, and without making this play, right now, it’s hard to see how my team can get another solid quality WR.

Let’s dig into further. These are the rounds and pick number, that all 60+ WR’s were drafted in, frm the best at 79/79 down through 60/60

1.16
1.1
1.7
1.9
1.14
2.2 (Maxwell Poffenroth, on our team)
1.13
1.16
1.7
1.14
2.4
1.25
1.23
1.5
1.11
2.1
1.10
1.23


So the lesson is very simple. If you want to get a WR in the 60+ value, 15 times out of 18, you have to invest a 1st round selection. The three times you didn’t, you couldn’t wait past 2.4. In fact, only 3 times could you get a top WR in the second half of the first round starting at 1.17

Are other positions like this? How about CB? There are only 10 CB in the league with a 60 or higher right now, as opposed to 18 WRs in that range. And yes, all ten were 100% 1st round folks. What about…say…DE, another high priority spot. There are just 13 DE at 60 or higher. There are a few later rounds, including one 5th, but most all 1sts. RB is very different. You have top RB that fell off the board in the 2nd round, at the 1.32 spot, in fact, of the 9 RBs in the 60+ rating, 5 were 2nd rounders and 4 1sts.

There is clearly a direct correlation with getting a 60+ WR and investing a draft pick from the 1st half of the 1st round.

So the only thing forcing me to pause on this trade is that we still have 2 really strong WLB and NT on the board that I rate, very, very highly. Good DT talent never falls this late. DT Zimmerman is the best player on the board, and has been for almost 10 picks, since the 1.9 spot.

But my roster needs a WR too. And DT. And WLB> We could use it all!

DT Zimmerman is a natural 3-4 NT. I could draft Zimmerman and WLB Wickson and just fully commit to the 3-4 transition. That’d be awesome! Or I could grab Zimmerman, convert him to LDT or something, and remain with my 4-3 now that I found my DT of the future. Good stuff all around, right?

But no matter what, I need a WR. And there’s one on the board…

Sigh…. I make the trade.

1.18 FL Adrian McHugh, Nevada

Adrian McHugh comes in as a 13 volatility, as scouted, 24% developed, with a 4.41 40 time, great intelligence, agility, and red position scores .


Alright let’s slow roll this:

1.19 – Cleveland takes SLB
1.20 Baltimore trades up and grabs ILB
1.21 New Orleans CB
1.22 Vikings CB
1.23 – Titans CB


How is Zimmerman STILL ON THE BOARD?

Am I delusional?

I call up the Baltimore GM at 1.24 to consider trading. He is willing to talk:

I give – my future 1st rounder in 2034.

I get 1.24, and 4th rounder in 2034

Every DT with a 60+ value was grabbed in the 1st round, just one in the 20s, and just 2 more outside of the top ten. If you want a 60+ DT, you have to invest a top ten pick 10 out of 13 times to get one. They do not fall. And if I want to get myself a real DT, this is my shot.

This is my shot. I don’t get DT this good. Ever. I make the trade and I draft

1.24 DT Cooper Zimmerman, South Carolina